Rookie Ranks in Different Formats?

This years draft projects to be one of the best ever. As of now, there are 2 top RBs and 4 WRs everyone raves about. I question their difference in vale between Dynasty, Redraft and Keeper and have talked with analysts from CBS, PFF, etc.

Dynasty has a rookie draft with rookies the best way for teams to improve. The top players are the Chosen Ones and will go after them with all they have.

Redraft is much different. Managers can pick any NFL player plus rookies in their draft. The rookie vale is much less with a 4th/5th round pick spent on few.

Keepers is in the middle as we have a choice of drafting a top rookie or keeping an established NFL star and most want to win now. Would you take the star of the draft in Robinson over Taylor, Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jefferson, etc if you wanted to win this year?

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If JJ is available to me in the first round, I’d be hard-pressed to say no to that! Pairing him up with Davante Adams? Fear my wrath, plebs!
HulkSmiling

Don’t know JJ but do Robinson and Gibbs, etc. My point is that those from Dynasty see a rookie top pick as a “chosen one” and that is far from the case with the rest of fantasy managers.

Consider Hall last year vs. Etienne, a red shirt, Both were ranked neck in neck in drafts and both justified their rank. Did everyone notice?

This year. Jameson was ranked as the #1 WR by PFF, CBS, etc. I believe he is/would be a top 5 pick this year. He will be showing off later this year.

Meanwhile, some complain of his value this year, saw the same with Etienne.
How did that work out?

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In dynasty, an elite WR is pure gold. They last a long time, and give you awesome production. JJ is exactly that kind of WR.

A friend from another keeper league made a good point on this topic. If you take a rookie with your #1 pick in Dynasty the player is yours and your pick comes back next year. In Redraft use the player for a year and start over

In Keeper you have the player for a season but to hold him it will cost you #1 again next year. Most top rookies take some time to get going. Look at this year with Hall and Walker who did become top tier RBs, drafted 4th and 7th.

We have seen some really good rookie WRs from last draft but none are top 30 this year.

This is the first time I have done a hybrid with 8 keepers, most before was 3 with a non drafted bonus 4th. It is different, much more challenging and still learning some while enjoying it.

We agreed that a RB could well be a #1 pick in our 8 keeper league but not in standard keepers. A WR would be more doubtful.

Thoughts?

Chris Olave is WR14 and Garret Wilson is WR23 in half PPR.

Before the end of this year, we could see George Pickens (WR38) and Christian Watson (WR40) entering the top 30.

Agreed. When you are only allowed to keep 2-3, only the most elite WR’s would even be considered. If it was a PPR league, I think WR’s might carry much more weight.

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Which has a lot to do with the landing spot. Drake London, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave could easily be WR2s or even WR1s if they didn’t suffer from bad QB play. And Jameson Williams is injured.

Few managers draft a rookie RB as 1st overall pick. They rather take last year’s #1 RB. And here’s what that got them in recent years:

2012: #5
2013: #9
2014: #7
2015: #48
2016: #6
2017: #118
2018: #1
2019: #14
2020: #53
2021: #8
2022: currently #20

I don’t have a similar stat for top rookie RB finishes at hand, but into the blue, I’d bet they are better.

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Agreed, the landing spot comes into play and then there is the waiting for who all other teams will keep and this is after the draft order a month away.

MANY moving pieces.

Personally, I am playing our deep keeper league as a dynasty variant, with player valuations near what they would be in dynasty, only considering their draft pick as a secondary criteria. For example, Dalvin Cook was my first rounder, but I can’t see using a first rounder on him next year, so he will be gone. I’d sooner grab a rookie than take Cook again, but I might use a later pick on him.

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Ed, Olave is 45 and Wilson 50 without adding Dynasty futures.

You’re looking at ECR rankings, not statistical rankings. Honestly, I’m surprised the so-called experts are so far off from what the stats say.

edmcgonRegular

ZakHH

6m

Personally, I am playing our deep keeper league as a dynasty variant, with player valuations near what they would be in dynasty, only considering their draft pick as a secondary criteria. For example, Dalvin Cook was my first rounder, but I can’t see using a first rounder on him next year, so he will be gone. I’d sooner grab a rookie than take Cook again, but I might use a later pick on him.

That’s fair. I traded Jameson and Kirk for a #1 which will be top 4. IF it is 1 or 2 it will be good for me. If not, I would have preferred to keep Jameson. He is top of the line talent and his landing spot in Detroit is VG.

edmcgonRegular

10m

You’re looking at ECR rankings, not statistical rankings. Honestly, I’m surprised the so-called experts are so far off from what the stats say.

I cannot recall ever picking, trading or taking off waivers off blind stats. Who have you added based on this?

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I ALWAYS look at the stats first! Experts too often put too much weight on talent, and not enough on team situations. Stats tell you more about how the team works around a player.

Kinda like Pitts for AJ?

Huh? Do you have a point in there about what we’re discussing?

You said you “ALWAYS look at stats.” Guess there are exceptions. :slight_smile:

So what does AJ Brown have to do with Kyle Pitts? We weren’t even discussing either of them, not to mention you’re suddenly comparing a WR with a TE? I’m still waiting for the point in your comment?

Ed, tell me of your stat comparison before proposing this trade.

You’re bringing a trade offer into an objective discussion? Ok, fine. I’m not going to offer you an initial “fair trade”. Yes, I am offering you something to see what you’ll do. If you accept, I walk away a winner. If you don’t, at least we have a point to discuss if you counter, which you never do, because you storm off insulted. Your problem, not mine.