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With the 5th or 6th Pick in a half ppr league the top tier RBs are usually off the table. Most cheat sheets have guys like Saquon or Jonathan Taylor at that spot. Isn’t it a wasted pick to try hard on a RB in the first round at that point? Isn’t Tyreek Hill a better choice?
So I’m looking at trading for goedert and possibly a 2022 2nd trading away Claypool. Sf tep dynasty Claypool is my wr4 I have Trautman and jarwin as my te Claypool is my second flex at this point I would replace him with Boyd or Etienne
This is probably a tough question because it is so dependent on the league, but in general terms… In a 10 man dynasty start up, which round do you see rookies starting to come off the board? In which round do you typically start targeting the rookies who aren’t top 10 prospects?
This is extremely difficult. I think the best way to look at it is value vs cost.
Davante: late round 1 value that will cost you a round 2 pick
Waller: 2/3 turn value that will cost you a round 7 pick
Dobbins: 2/3 turn value that will cost you a round 7 pick
Based purely on that, I would probably go Waller because the TE you’re getting late is going to be vastly inferior to any WR you can take there.
There is another factor to consider, though. You need to go through the other teams and project keepers. Figure out who you can get at your first two or three picks. Do you have a high pick? If so, then keeping Davante for what is a late second round pick might be worth it over Waller. If you have a low pick, then you’re keeping Davante close to par value, which likely is not worth it.
It’s tough to give a definitive answer because there’s a lot to consider beyond just the three names and the cost. My lean based on the information you provided is Waller.
If you’re looking for someone to tell you to take a WR in the first round, I regret to inform you that you’ve got the wrong guy. Tyreek Hill is my WR1 and if you’re familiar with any of my work over the past five years, you know I’ve been on Tyreek since he first burst onto the scene in the second half of 2016. But there are at least 10 running backs I am taking before I even look at a WR. There is almost no realistic scenario where I don’t take an RB in the first round.
We know CMC and Dalvin are the consensus 1-2. Beyond that, it gets muddy. My rankings are far from set in stone with the heart of fantasy draft season still two months away, but I’ve got it like this:
There is a 99% chance I’m taking at least one RB with my first two picks and unless I’m picking 11 or 12 and zero WRs go in the top 10, I’m taking one of those RBs with my first pick.
The value over replacement of the early round RBs is just more significant than the WRs.
I like Goedert. I don’t love him. This trade feels to me like you feel you need to upgrade at TE. Goedert is not a slam dunk like Kelce/Kittle/Waller. He could just be fine. I don’t see top five upside there. Whereas with Claypool, I see a guy that could potentially be a top 12 WR within a couple years.
You clearly have an abundance of talent if you don’t have to start Boyd or Etienne, so I think a better move for you would be going after a bigger name TE.
First of all, thanks for your great reply. But “Wow”! You’re very high on Barkley. I’ve read a lot about his injury and I know there’s a great chance he’ll get back to his top form.
But regarding others like Henry (I know, no targets), why do you still have him at 4?
Well I’m not even sure I will keep Barkley there. It’s a work in progress. But I trust Barkley’s volume. All of the top guys are talented. I need running backs getting work both rushing and receiving. Barkley is going to get that.
I don’t want to give you an answer just for the sake of answering. Like you said, it’s kind of an impossible question to answer just because it’s so vague. Every draft is different. Sometimes people get rookie happy. Sometimes they don’t.
It also depends on the rookies and the format. For example, in a TE premium startup, Kyle Pitts is gonna go extremely early.
It also depends on starting roster size.
I know this isn’t the answer you were necessarily looking for, but if you want to give me more details, I will do my best to narrow down my answer.
He’s still worth more than that. Even if he is done, he’s still worth a dynasty third because rounds 3-4-5 in dynasty rookie drafts just aren’t that valuable. The odds of your third round rookie pick panning out are probably lower than the odds Beckham has a renaissance season.
I’m in a 10 man ppr keeper league with the 1.05 pick and am keeping kelce in the 2nd. Am I crazy to consider Najee or Eckler (ppr) with my first? So much uncertainty at the top of RBs and I know touches are king!