First Rookie Draft post-NFL draft

So I had my first dynasty rookie draft after the NFL draft this week. The league is superflex and half PPR, as well as a 29-player roster (which doesn’t count IR and taxi squad). As I told some of my league mates, I did not rely on ADP for adjusting my picks, since ADP was heavily influenced by pre-NFL draft fantasy drafts, which doesn’t take into consideration landing spots. While I had some reaches, I was still happy with who I got.

I had 3 first round picks, 1 second round pick, 3 third round picks, and 2 fourth round picks.

I am sharing the results, as well as some analysis on my own picks:

1.01) RB Breece Hall (NYJ)
1.02) RB Kenny Walker (SEA)
1.03) WR Treylon Burks (TEN)
1.04) WR Skyy Moore (KC)
1.05) WR Drake London (ATL)
1.06) WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ): I couldn’t have been happier with this result, since Wilson was my top WR after the NFL draft. Wilson will be the Jets alpha, or at least a 1A to Elijah Moore’s 1B. If Zack Wilson fails in his second season, that will still mean a lot of pass attempts to Garrett as they play a lot of comeback. If Zack succeeds, then Garrett Wilson will likely succeed too. Win-win.
1.07) QB Kenny Pickett (PIT)
1.08) QB Matt Corral (CAR): After Pickett went off the board, Corral was the next best choice at QB. Rule of thumb in superflex leagues: You can never have too many QB’s. To me, Corral is the one QB in this draft class who has Hall of Fame upside with his quick release (think Dan Marino). However, even a QB with awesome mechanics can be ruined by bad coaching, so Corral’s downside is pretty brutal too. Carolina hasn’t shown much ability to coach up QB’s lately, so this is a high risk/high reward pick. Fortunately, I don’t need to start Corral right away.
1.09) RB Zamir White (LV): Admittedly, I drafted him way too early, although he was my next best RB after Breece Hall and Kenny Walker. However, a fellow Raider fan was drafting in the 1.10 spot, and this was the best chance to secure a potential Josh Jacobs replacement. White has the base talent to be a good 2 down back, which is not a bad thing in half PPR dynasty. The fact the Raiders declined to pick up Josh Jacobs’ 5th year option was also a driving factor with this pick. Even if White doesn’t pan out, it is clear the Raiders recognize that Jacobs has been run into the ground. But if White is successful this year or next, then this will be a steal.
1.10) WR Chris Olave (NO)
1.11) WR Jameson Williams (DET)
1.12) RB Isaiah Spiller (LAC)
2.01) RB Tyler Allgeier (ATL): Allgeier was the 4th best RB on my board. With Arthur Smith as his HC, it’s hard to ignore a bruiser like Allgeier. Even if Allgeier fails, I still have Cordarelle Patterson and Damien Williams, so I am covered whichever way Smith plans to go.
2.02) RB James Cook (BUF)
2.03) WR George Pickens (PIT)
2.04) WR Christian Watson (GB)
2.05) RB Dameon Pierce (HOU)
2.06) WR Jahan Dotson (WAS)
2.07) RB Rachaad White (TB)
2.08) QB Malik Willis (TEN)
2.09) QB Desmond Ritter (ATL)
2.10) WR Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)
2.11) WR David Bell (CLE)
2.12) WR Khalil Shakir (BUF)
3.01) WR John Metchie (HOU)
3.02) TE Trey McBride (TEN)
3.03) WR Jalen Tolbert (DAL): Tolbert was an ok prospect in a sweet situation. Going into Dallas, with questions around Michael Gallup’s health, and a potential role as the WR3 in an explosive offense, Tolbert seemed like a good flex option if he pans out, with even some long-term WR2 potential.
3.04) WR Alex Pierce (IND): This one was a steal where I got him. Pierce looks like the probable WR2 in Indy. His main downside is Indy seems to be a run-first team.
3.05) TE Greg Dulcich (DEN)
3.06) RB Brian Robinson (WAS): Another potential 2 down back. This bruiser from Alabama has some serious potential in the NFL. I like his chances to either fill in or even eventually replace Antonio Gibson, who has shown some injury tendencies.
3.07) RB Kyren Williams (LAR)
3.08) TE Jelani Woods (IND)
3.09) RB Tyrion Davis-Price (SF)
3.10) QB Sam Howell (WAS)
3.11) RB Pierre Strong (NE)
3.12) RB Keaontay Ingram (ARI)
4.01) WR Tyquan Thornton (NE)
4.02) RB Hassan Haskins (TEN)
4.03) WR Calvin Austin (PIT)
4.04) RB Tyler Badie (BAL): I won’t lie. I had Calvin Austin targeted here. Don’t we all hate when the player we want gets picked right before our pick? Anyway, sour grapes aside, Badie is a solid, albeit smallish, RB. Getting an RB in run-heavy Baltimore is never a terrible thing, especially after their MASH-sized injury list last year. Badie could be a decent sleeper, which is why I am stashing him on my taxi squad.
4.05) WR Romeo Doubs (GB)
4.06) WR Velus Jones (CHI)
4.07) TE Daniel Bellinger (NYG)
4.08) RB Jerome Ford (CLE)
4.09) TE Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ): Another player for my taxi squad, as I already have C.J. Uzomah. I don’t expect anything from Ruckert this year, but if Uzomah fails or gets hurt, Ruckert could break out in the next 2 years. But as an Ohio State TE fighting for targets behind Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Ruckert could be a lot better than we expect. We’ll see.
4.10) RB Kevin Harris (NE)
4.11) QB Bailey Zappe (NE)
4.12) WR Danny Gray (SF)

Overall, I drafted one QB. In a weak QB class, I got the best one, in my opinion, although I respect anyone who likes Kenny Pickett more than Matt Corral, since Pickett seems ready to go from day one. Admittedly, my QB corps is kind of thin for a superflex league, with my starters being Jameis Winston and Davis Mills. After them, it is high upside second stringers like Cooper Rush, Mike White, and Jake Fromm. Worst case scenario, I may end up having to use other position players in my superflex position, but I like Winston and Mills. If Winston stays healthy, and Mills can show improvement in his second season, they could be a solid QB tandem.

I also got 4 RB’s, which I desperately needed on a team where my best RB’s are James Conner, A.J. Dillon, and Cordarelle Patterson. If only one of those RB’s pans out, I will call this draft a success.

I got 3 WR’s in a strong WR class, and grabbed the best one, also in my opinion. That said, WR is currently my team’s weak suit, with Garrett Wilson as my only clear-cut WR1. I will be playing a lot of matchups with my remaining receivers, including Cordarelle Patterson, Cedrick Wilson, Denzell Mims, and Leviska Shenault. If Alec Pierce can assume the WR2 role in Indy or Jalen Tolbert the WR3 role, that makes my life a little easier. But in a half ppr league, I am willing to gamble on weakness in my WR corps instead of more important positions.

Finally, I only drafted one TE, but I didn’t need one as my TE’s are stacked, with Darren Waller, Rob Gronkowski (if he returns), Mike Gesicki, and C.J. Uzomah. I even have Foster Moreau, if Waller gets hurt.

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Nice one! My dynasty rookie drafts won’t take place before late July / early August, so I still have time to work on my draft strategy. But my main league features a pretty similar setup - SFLEX, half PPR, deep rosters - so it’s interesting to see how your draft turn out.

Allow me to put on my :face_with_monocle: and take a closer look, especially at your picks.

No major surprises with picks 1-6. Skyy Moore at 1.04, with Drake London still on the board, may have been a bit of a reach. Sure, Moore’s ceiling is “the next Tyreek Hill”. But his floor is “the next Mecole Hardman”, so I’m not sure if I’d take him in the first half of the first round. But I do understand the motivation.

Garrett Wilson at 1.06 was a solid pick. A case could have been made for Chris Olave, but I’d probably have picked Wilson as well.

As for the QB picks - personally, I’m not sold on Kenny Pickett yet. But if the 1.07 team was QB needy, I don’t blame them for taking him first.

As for you picking Matt Corral at 1.08 - I’m not sure if I prefer him over Malik Willis in Tennessee. I agree with your analysis on Corral, but I think Willis found the better landing spot. He’ll most likely not start in 2022, but if he can make a step forward and establish himself on an NFL level, his landing spot is way, way better than Corral’s. That’s not saying I disagree with your pick. I’m literally not sure here yet.

And then there’s the 1.09. You know I can’t agree with that one. I don’t see White starting in 2022, at least not as long as Jacobs stays healthy and isn’t being traded to an RB-needy team (thinking Saints here). Yes, the writing is on the wall that Jacobs won’t be around in Vegas in 2023. But I wouldn’t take it for granted that White will get the same job. And even if he does, that he will do a better job than Jacobs. I’m certainly not opposed to drafting White, but not in the first round. Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier are much better prospects, and I’d probably chose even James Cook and Rachaad White over Zamir.

Selecting Allgeier with the 2.01 is okay. I’d probably have picked Dameon Pierce, but both are RBs that can start producing right out of the gate, and both have the potential to be the best rookie RB for fantasy purposes in 2022, especially if the Jets RBBC will be closer to 50:50 than to 70:30.

As for the rest of the second round, I also don’t see major surprises here. I’d definitely have picked Pierce over Cook, though. Yes, Cook is in a very intriguing spot. But he’ll have to rely on air targets to become fantasy relevant, and Josh Allen doesn’t check the ball down very often. Cook will work out great for the Bills, but I don’t see him becoming more than a fantasy RB3 at best.

I absolutely love your 3rd round picks. Tolbert and Pierce should both have gone in the second round, so you got them with a nice discount. As for Indy being a run-first team: that’s true, but they don’t utilize the TE a ton, so their WR2 should still have WR2/3 appeal in fantasy.

As for Brian Robinson at 3.06 - I like his tape, but I don’t like his landing spot. He has both Gibson and McKissic ahead of him for the next 2 years. But a Gibson injury could turn things around quickly, and we’re not talking about a first round pick here. A case could have been made for TDP, but I don’t like investing in the Niners RB lottery myself, so Robinson would have been my pick as well.

As for Badie at 4.04 - if you were targeting Calvin Austin, you could have gone for Romeo Doubs here. Yes, it’s a dart throw, but that’s what you go after in round 4. And the WR situation is pretty fluid in Green Bay these days, so who knows.

Overall, I like your draft result, with the exception of reaching for Zamir White at 1.09. As for not drafting a TE until late in the 4th round - the only TE in this class that I kinda like is Greg Dulcich. I still think Albert O will be the TE1 in Denver, but at least, there is some opportunity for Dulcich to shine. As for Trey McBride, he’s a fine talent, but I don’t like his landing spot one bit.

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You and I will continue to agree to disagree on Zamir “Zeus” White. Except for Raider fans who read the writing on the wall for Josh Jacobs, I expect most people will look at me sideways over Zeus, and I’m ok with that.

As for all of my RB’s, I don’t expect any of them to be the top RB in fantasy. For this year, anything in RB3 is nice, with RB2 being a huge success. If any of them ends up being an RB1 by next year, call me a genius!

Regarding Brian Robinson, I see him competing with Gibson more than McKissic. Robinson likely won’t get the passing down work, but he could easily see the goal line and short yardage work. If Gibson gets hurt, that’s a BINGO!

I wanted Austin because of Pittsburgh’s history of developing receivers, plus Austin’s tape was excellent for a small speedy guy. I can easily see Austin as Pittsburgh’s slot receiver. With Pickens in the mix, that’s not likely this season, but next year is another year.

Doubs is a dart throw in a crowded WR room, with Aaron Rodgers going who knows where next season, possibly even retirement. If Jordan Love ends up as the Packers QB, all the receivers there will take a hit.

For a dart throw WR, I’d have gone with Velus Jones. He will likely get the opportunity to be WR2 in Chicago, and he’ll have steady QB play with Justin Fields. I’m just not sold on Chicago’s ability to evaluate talent.

As soon as I hear “49ers”, I run the other way, regardless of position. Their RBBC is maddening, and Shanahan’s shenanigans with his players are downright fickle. I had Brandon Aiyuk for several weeks last year, and then I got fed up with it, and vowed to never touch another 49er as long as Shanahan is there. I will happily let the 49ers be somebody else’s headache.

I really didn’t care much for any of the TE’s in this year’s class. That isn’t to say none of them will pan out. Only there were no sure things like the first two TE picks last year. I only took Ruckert because we know he can run block, which is most of the battle for any TE to stay on the field. If he is a better pass catcher than we saw in his limited Ohio State film, all the better for me.

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I don’t blame you for drafting him. I blame you for drafting him at 1.09 :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

But it’s a bit academic in the end. Nobody can safely predict how this rookie RB class will pan out, at least not beyond the 2 top prospects. You had no picks between the 2.01 and the 3.03, so if you wanted White, you had to pick him latest at 2.01.

My concern with White is that he could be stuck behind Jacobs in 2022, and the Raiders could well draft another RB in 2023. So while I do see the writing on the wall for Jacobs, I’m still not convinced Zeus will be the next big thing. But of course, I can’t rule it out, either.

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And this is why Zeus wasn’t my only RB taken. Between him, Allgeier, Robinson, and Badie, I should be able to pull off at least one, if not several, good RB’s. I’m not expecting any of them to be Marshall Faulk or Adrian Peterson (although Maurice Jones-Drew compared Zeus to Peterson!), I’d settle for one or two thousand yard rusher/receivers with a nose for the end zone.

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Allgeier made a ton of sense for you, since you also have Patterson. For the same reason, I consider Isaiah Spiller - I have Austin Ekeler. And indeed, Zeus is also on my draft list, as I also have Josh Jacobs. But I don’t know if I am ready to spend the 2.01 on him, and he’ll probably be gone at 2.12.

My picks in my main league are:
1.01, 1.12
2.01, 2.12

I’m torn between spending the 1.01 on Breece Hall (I already have Michael Carter), or trying to trade the pick away. My biggest concern is that Hall and Carter could end up in a near-50:50 RBBC split, which could relegate both of them to FLEX status in fantasy.

I don’t have any screaming roster needs, and 2023 looks like a much better year to re-tool an contender team, so I still wonder if it would be better to turn a few of those 2022 picks into 2023 ones.

If not, my draft targets probably are:
1.01 - Breece Hall
1.12 - Dameon Pierce / Isaiah Spiller / Rachaad White
2.01 - Skyy Moore / Christian Watson / Alec Pierce
2.12 - Tyler Allgeier / Zamir White / Jalen Tolbert / Malik Willis / Desmond Ridder
3.04 - Khalil Shakir / Greg Dulcich
4.01 - Romeo Doubs / Cade Otton / Jalen Wydermyer

That doesn’t mean I expect any of the players to drop as far, but in that league, strange things tend to happen. Last year, I got Ja’Marr Chase at 1.09. The year before, Justin Herbert at 2.01.

Is your league superflex? I’m assuming half ppr?

Exactly. SFLEX, half-PPR, 12 teams, 10 starters, 15 bench, 5 TAXI. 4-round draft, snaking.

Snaking for the rookie draft?


The 1.12, 2.01 and 4.01 are my original picks.
The 1.01, 2.12 and 3.04 were acquired by trade.
The 3.12 was traded away.

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Snaking for a rookie draft seems wrong. Sorry.

I agree, and it wasn’t my idea. But it’s among the things I intend to change for the next offseason, provided the majority of owners will agree.

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