So I had my first dynasty rookie draft after the NFL draft this week. The league is superflex and half PPR, as well as a 29-player roster (which doesn’t count IR and taxi squad). As I told some of my league mates, I did not rely on ADP for adjusting my picks, since ADP was heavily influenced by pre-NFL draft fantasy drafts, which doesn’t take into consideration landing spots. While I had some reaches, I was still happy with who I got.
I had 3 first round picks, 1 second round pick, 3 third round picks, and 2 fourth round picks.
I am sharing the results, as well as some analysis on my own picks:
1.01) RB Breece Hall (NYJ)
1.02) RB Kenny Walker (SEA)
1.03) WR Treylon Burks (TEN)
1.04) WR Skyy Moore (KC)
1.05) WR Drake London (ATL)
1.06) WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ): I couldn’t have been happier with this result, since Wilson was my top WR after the NFL draft. Wilson will be the Jets alpha, or at least a 1A to Elijah Moore’s 1B. If Zack Wilson fails in his second season, that will still mean a lot of pass attempts to Garrett as they play a lot of comeback. If Zack succeeds, then Garrett Wilson will likely succeed too. Win-win.
1.07) QB Kenny Pickett (PIT)
1.08) QB Matt Corral (CAR): After Pickett went off the board, Corral was the next best choice at QB. Rule of thumb in superflex leagues: You can never have too many QB’s. To me, Corral is the one QB in this draft class who has Hall of Fame upside with his quick release (think Dan Marino). However, even a QB with awesome mechanics can be ruined by bad coaching, so Corral’s downside is pretty brutal too. Carolina hasn’t shown much ability to coach up QB’s lately, so this is a high risk/high reward pick. Fortunately, I don’t need to start Corral right away.
1.09) RB Zamir White (LV): Admittedly, I drafted him way too early, although he was my next best RB after Breece Hall and Kenny Walker. However, a fellow Raider fan was drafting in the 1.10 spot, and this was the best chance to secure a potential Josh Jacobs replacement. White has the base talent to be a good 2 down back, which is not a bad thing in half PPR dynasty. The fact the Raiders declined to pick up Josh Jacobs’ 5th year option was also a driving factor with this pick. Even if White doesn’t pan out, it is clear the Raiders recognize that Jacobs has been run into the ground. But if White is successful this year or next, then this will be a steal.
1.10) WR Chris Olave (NO)
1.11) WR Jameson Williams (DET)
1.12) RB Isaiah Spiller (LAC)
2.01) RB Tyler Allgeier (ATL): Allgeier was the 4th best RB on my board. With Arthur Smith as his HC, it’s hard to ignore a bruiser like Allgeier. Even if Allgeier fails, I still have Cordarelle Patterson and Damien Williams, so I am covered whichever way Smith plans to go.
2.02) RB James Cook (BUF)
2.03) WR George Pickens (PIT)
2.04) WR Christian Watson (GB)
2.05) RB Dameon Pierce (HOU)
2.06) WR Jahan Dotson (WAS)
2.07) RB Rachaad White (TB)
2.08) QB Malik Willis (TEN)
2.09) QB Desmond Ritter (ATL)
2.10) WR Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)
2.11) WR David Bell (CLE)
2.12) WR Khalil Shakir (BUF)
3.01) WR John Metchie (HOU)
3.02) TE Trey McBride (TEN)
3.03) WR Jalen Tolbert (DAL): Tolbert was an ok prospect in a sweet situation. Going into Dallas, with questions around Michael Gallup’s health, and a potential role as the WR3 in an explosive offense, Tolbert seemed like a good flex option if he pans out, with even some long-term WR2 potential.
3.04) WR Alex Pierce (IND): This one was a steal where I got him. Pierce looks like the probable WR2 in Indy. His main downside is Indy seems to be a run-first team.
3.05) TE Greg Dulcich (DEN)
3.06) RB Brian Robinson (WAS): Another potential 2 down back. This bruiser from Alabama has some serious potential in the NFL. I like his chances to either fill in or even eventually replace Antonio Gibson, who has shown some injury tendencies.
3.07) RB Kyren Williams (LAR)
3.08) TE Jelani Woods (IND)
3.09) RB Tyrion Davis-Price (SF)
3.10) QB Sam Howell (WAS)
3.11) RB Pierre Strong (NE)
3.12) RB Keaontay Ingram (ARI)
4.01) WR Tyquan Thornton (NE)
4.02) RB Hassan Haskins (TEN)
4.03) WR Calvin Austin (PIT)
4.04) RB Tyler Badie (BAL): I won’t lie. I had Calvin Austin targeted here. Don’t we all hate when the player we want gets picked right before our pick? Anyway, sour grapes aside, Badie is a solid, albeit smallish, RB. Getting an RB in run-heavy Baltimore is never a terrible thing, especially after their MASH-sized injury list last year. Badie could be a decent sleeper, which is why I am stashing him on my taxi squad.
4.05) WR Romeo Doubs (GB)
4.06) WR Velus Jones (CHI)
4.07) TE Daniel Bellinger (NYG)
4.08) RB Jerome Ford (CLE)
4.09) TE Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ): Another player for my taxi squad, as I already have C.J. Uzomah. I don’t expect anything from Ruckert this year, but if Uzomah fails or gets hurt, Ruckert could break out in the next 2 years. But as an Ohio State TE fighting for targets behind Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Ruckert could be a lot better than we expect. We’ll see.
4.10) RB Kevin Harris (NE)
4.11) QB Bailey Zappe (NE)
4.12) WR Danny Gray (SF)
Overall, I drafted one QB. In a weak QB class, I got the best one, in my opinion, although I respect anyone who likes Kenny Pickett more than Matt Corral, since Pickett seems ready to go from day one. Admittedly, my QB corps is kind of thin for a superflex league, with my starters being Jameis Winston and Davis Mills. After them, it is high upside second stringers like Cooper Rush, Mike White, and Jake Fromm. Worst case scenario, I may end up having to use other position players in my superflex position, but I like Winston and Mills. If Winston stays healthy, and Mills can show improvement in his second season, they could be a solid QB tandem.
I also got 4 RB’s, which I desperately needed on a team where my best RB’s are James Conner, A.J. Dillon, and Cordarelle Patterson. If only one of those RB’s pans out, I will call this draft a success.
I got 3 WR’s in a strong WR class, and grabbed the best one, also in my opinion. That said, WR is currently my team’s weak suit, with Garrett Wilson as my only clear-cut WR1. I will be playing a lot of matchups with my remaining receivers, including Cordarelle Patterson, Cedrick Wilson, Denzell Mims, and Leviska Shenault. If Alec Pierce can assume the WR2 role in Indy or Jalen Tolbert the WR3 role, that makes my life a little easier. But in a half ppr league, I am willing to gamble on weakness in my WR corps instead of more important positions.
Finally, I only drafted one TE, but I didn’t need one as my TE’s are stacked, with Darren Waller, Rob Gronkowski (if he returns), Mike Gesicki, and C.J. Uzomah. I even have Foster Moreau, if Waller gets hurt.