Rookie Draft Question

Fantasy Draft Talk
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In a Rookie only draft what is the rough player trade value of the top 2 rounds?
I am asking for the 8 keeper league as it is much different than the 3-4 keeper leagues I am accustomed to.

Let’s use the last draft. In my leagues #1 Hall projected to be a 4th-5th round redraft pick and would be worth a player who projected in the same range,
top wr’s were in the cheap seats of a round 7 value or below.

QBs and 2nd rounders were at the bottom or not at all.

However, with 8 keepers the price of poker/rookie picks has gone up. Question is by how much?

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There’s a chart on this article, which gives you relative draft pick values:

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There is no exact science for that, because a keeper league (even one with rather many keepers) has one major difference to dynasty leagues: you don’t know which players will end up in the draft, and which ones will be kept.

Will their owners sacrifice their 2023 1sts for players like Jonathan Taylor or Najee Harris, who are underperforming at the moment? Or CMC and Ekeler, who will be yet another year older? How about Javonte Williams, who could still be limited by his injury next season?

We will know only once the non-keepers have been cut. Only then, we will know what the draft pool will look like, and what picks other teams are holding.

Because that’s the other movable piece. If I knew every other team kept their 2022 1st round player (scenario A), my decisision whether or not to keep Najee Harris might be different from a scenario B, in which 7-8 teams drop the players and keep their 2023 1st.

In scenario A, I could just make the decision whether to keep Najee, or go after the top rookie RB of next year’s class instead. In scenario B, if I drafted at the bottom of the field, there may be no potential RB1 left once I’m on the clock in round 1.

So there is no safe way to determine a player’s value. A player’s value would be determined by the alternative I can expect to draft if I free up a draft pick by not keeping a player. But without knowing what players will be in the draft pool, and what overall position my Xth round pick will represent, this is pretty much a lottery.

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Thanks Ed that is what I was looking for.

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Zak, I am researching the logistics of league options moving forward.

Coming trade options are the only issue to be done in the next couple weeks.
I did not allow future draft pick trades as I did not know managers and if they were staying.

I am looking into a 2 round rookie draft and off season trades but not sure I can do it or want to. I believe it would be best for managers to know this before we get into late season trades.

Also, have to consider if the rookies should come before or after the keepers.

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Most rookie drafts can run about 4 useful rounds. Admittedly, somewhere in round 3 is usually when lottery tickets start appearing.

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Most rookie drafts can run about 4 useful rounds. Admittedly, somewhere in round 3 is usually when lottery tickets start appearing.

Yes Ed but that’s not keepers with a redraft, which is where rookies are normally placed. The rookies would have to be added to teams rosters with the draft picks being deducted (last 2 picks could make sense), leaving only 5-6 picks with 2 being D and K. It also may have to be done manually which is a pain.

However I cannot see trading for next year’s picks working with our partial redraft.
Also, have to be careful not to over-complicate things.

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Zak, here is our first round. Who would you or anyone say has a good chance of being dropped to pick up a rookie?
Round 1

  1. Jonathan Taylor(Ind - RB) Bruisers
  2. Ja’Marr Chase(Cin - WR) KRASH TEST D…
  3. Christian McCaffrey(Car - RB) Ernest’s Inc…
  4. Justin Jefferson(Min - WR) Mack’s Match…
  5. Cooper Kupp(LAR - WR) Sicarios
  6. Austin Ekeler(LAC - RB) Montoya’s Re…
  7. Najee Harris(Pit - RB) Hamburg Havoc
  8. Dalvin Cook(Min - RB) Georgia Rednex
  9. Javonte Williams(Den - RB) Cosmic Surfers
  10. Joe Mixon(Cin - RB) South Beach …

I already have my 1st back from the trade of Mixon for Swift a 2nd.

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That depends. If we have a combined rookie/free agent draft AND I have an early pick, I might be tempted to drop Najee and go with a rookie RB.

Javonte is a player I’d probably not spend a 2023 1st for. His injury is likely to limit him next season still, so I might want to swap him for a fresh pair of legs.

CMC, Ekeler and Cook may be too old for a 1st next year. I would not spend a 2023 1st for either of them, but YMMV.

Same for Kupp and Mixon, if any of them should aggravate an injury this season.

JT, Chase and JJ are the only players I’d definitely keep, even if one of them should get injured this season.

Of course, this all based on 1 draft that features rookies and free agents. If he have separate drafts, things would obviously look different.

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Going to be a very tuff choice for managers on keeping any player as you will have no idea who will be available until after you choose.

I never considered rookies as top draft values as few were picked before the 6- 7th round. That does change but not sure how much.

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I’ll save you some trouble. I won’t be keeping Dalvin Cook if I have to give up a first rounder for him. He’s getting older.

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edmcgonRegular

SoBe717

19h

I’ll save you some trouble. I won’t be keeping Dalvin Cook if I have to give up a first rounder for him. He’s getting older.

Ed, it is the same in all keeper leagues. I’m gonna wait until I know where I pick and to try to get a feel of what other may do.

Rookies are not held in very high regard in keeper leagues. If you look at our draft Hall 4th round, Pierce 5th and Walker 7th.

That was it until I took London in the 11th and he was #2 ranked rookie in Dynasty.

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I doubt Cook is worth a late 1st round pick next year, unless he finishes this season with a bang.

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True, as are a number of top round picks. My experience with keepers is that most want to win now and if they feel they have a legit shot will hold them.

Also, speculate on who you believe you can get for your first in dropping Cook.

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In the 2023 draft class? Nearly anyone. And that isn’t even considering what veterans might have been recklessly dropped.

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Yes but, as you and I know, you can do the same in late rounds unless you can go top 3.

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I can find value in the late 1st round, no worries. :wink:

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