In a Rookie only draft what is the rough player trade value of the top 2 rounds?
I am asking for the 8 keeper league as it is much different than the 3-4 keeper leagues I am accustomed to.
Let’s use the last draft. In my leagues #1 Hall projected to be a 4th-5th round redraft pick and would be worth a player who projected in the same range,
top wr’s were in the cheap seats of a round 7 value or below.
QBs and 2nd rounders were at the bottom or not at all.
However, with 8 keepers the price of poker/rookie picks has gone up. Question is by how much?
There is no exact science for that, because a keeper league (even one with rather many keepers) has one major difference to dynasty leagues: you don’t know which players will end up in the draft, and which ones will be kept.
Will their owners sacrifice their 2023 1sts for players like Jonathan Taylor or Najee Harris, who are underperforming at the moment? Or CMC and Ekeler, who will be yet another year older? How about Javonte Williams, who could still be limited by his injury next season?
We will know only once the non-keepers have been cut. Only then, we will know what the draft pool will look like, and what picks other teams are holding.
Because that’s the other movable piece. If I knew every other team kept their 2022 1st round player (scenario A), my decisision whether or not to keep Najee Harris might be different from a scenario B, in which 7-8 teams drop the players and keep their 2023 1st.
In scenario A, I could just make the decision whether to keep Najee, or go after the top rookie RB of next year’s class instead. In scenario B, if I drafted at the bottom of the field, there may be no potential RB1 left once I’m on the clock in round 1.
So there is no safe way to determine a player’s value. A player’s value would be determined by the alternative I can expect to draft if I free up a draft pick by not keeping a player. But without knowing what players will be in the draft pool, and what overall position my Xth round pick will represent, this is pretty much a lottery.
Most rookie drafts can run about 4 useful rounds. Admittedly, somewhere in round 3 is usually when lottery tickets start appearing.
Yes Ed but that’s not keepers with a redraft, which is where rookies are normally placed. The rookies would have to be added to teams rosters with the draft picks being deducted (last 2 picks could make sense), leaving only 5-6 picks with 2 being D and K. It also may have to be done manually which is a pain.
However I cannot see trading for next year’s picks working with our partial redraft.
Also, have to be careful not to over-complicate things.