Rookie Trade Values

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Values

Draft Pick 1QB Superflex
Top 3 58 69
Top 6 47 55
Top 12 37 44
Early 2nd 27 34
Late 2nd 19 28
Early 3rd 14 22
Late 3rd 9 16
All Others 4 9

Above are the projected values of draft picks to come next season.

I looked up a few of my players to see their value.

London- 54 a top 6 pick
Jameson Williams- 45 Borderline top 6
Pckins- 41 a top 12 pick
Kirk- 37 a top 12 pick

Do you agree with these trade values?

1 Like

You can’t really compare the values of future draft picks to players from past drafts. Hindsight is always 20/20. Some players turn out to be steals, others are busts.

When trading a future draft pick, you don’t know which player you will get, or how that player will perform. FantasyPro’s approach works rather well for me, though I’d never take the firm trade value of a player or a future pick as gospel.

1 Like

These values are more of a guideline for setting up trades.

For example, let’s say I am trying to set up a trade for multiple players, and when I finish totaling the player values from the other dynasty charts, I have 10 points I still owe my trade partner. Then I would use this chart to see what kind of draft capital I’d have to offer, which would likely be a 3rd rounder in a 1 QB league or a 4th rounder in a Superflex league.

In case you are wondering why the draft values are higher in superflex leagues, it is because RB’s and WR’s don’t lose any of their value, but now you also have to consider QB’s as much more valuable. So early down picks get a much more mixed group of drafted positions, as opposed to 1 QB leagues where you are mostly considering just RB’s and WR’s, with an occasional top value QB thrown in. In a good rookie QB draft, you can see 4 or more QB’s going in the first round, likely the first 4 picks if they are good enough.

I agree with both comments. Allow me to change up some.

I have way too many keepers and will have to trade or lose them. I can only trade them for draft picks or a #1 player as my 1st round pick is open from trade.

I am trying to establish a fair value for the 2nd year players and they are all different in what they have shown so far. I would like to know what regulas draft pick value others would place on them.

Jameson Williams- Reminds me a lot of Etienne as a top WR red shirting. I can see him as a 4th round draft pick next year, give or take 1, as was Etienne.

London- Rave reports and grades from all, a superstar waiting for a QB and O.
I see him as a 3 or 4.

Pickins- Has shown top talent and a WR2 with a chance to move up. I would say a value of a 5th-6th.

Burks- Jury still out. Team has labeled him their #1 but having injury issues. I would say 6th-7th now and waiting to see more. He comes back next week.

Am I being reasonable or overvaluing?

At the end of the day, it will all depend on what others are ready to spend. You can certainly make a case for Williams being worth a 4th round pick. But if nobody is ready to give you more than a 6th, then this won’t help you.

Another factor to be considered is the keeper capital. If I have to spend a future pick to get a player AND will lose another one to keep him, then I have to take that into consideration when making a trade decision.

Finally, are we decided yet how the draft is going to work? Will there be 1 draft, with rookies & free agents, or separate drafts? And how will the keeper value be determined for future players? If I draft a player in the 1st round of the 2023 draft, will I lose a 2024 1st if I keep him?

That would distort the keeper value a bit, as the “true” value of a player I drafted in the 1st round of a startup draft, when all players were on the board, will be different from a player I drafted in the first round of the following year, when 80 top players won’t be available in the draft because they are being kept by their current owners.

Example: I un-keep Najee Harris and free up my 1st round pick for the 2023 draft. With that pick (likely the 1.10, as of course my team will skyrocket for the rest of the season :sweat_smile: ), I take a young talent that is typically drafted in the 5th or 6th round in redraft leagues. Will I then lose a 2024 1st if I keep him?

All those decisions factor in heavily when determining the value of a player.

Great points and questions. There are 3 other commissioners I know who are watching our league with interest. They love the concept of combining all 3 fantasy formats into one but, want to see the problems and solutions in putting it into practice. and they tell me there are a number of others. Combined they asked the same as you did solo.

I will do my best to answer, barring anything unforeseen and will be sending a league email in the next week.

The new draft picks will cost the same draft pick as this past year. Yes, the draft will be much different with Keepers deleted. You say you may draft #10 but you can also draft #2 with 5 teams giving up their picks and have better choices than this year. No way to know until after you pick your keepers. I see this as one of the charming challenges of the league.

There will be one draft unless the league decides to move to sleepers which I do not see in our best interest THIS year. I liked the idea of a rookie draft since I came up with this. However, Yahoo does not yet do it and you have to charge the rosters for them. Only way I see is the last two draft picks which brings up a big value question now and later.

This league has not started yet. That comes in July/August of 2023. Can’t Wait!

Zak, I do agree on draft details but, that will be covered in the league email and not here.

1 Like

Sure. I wasn’t pushing for answers here, nor criticizing the league settings. Just wanted to point out that all these details will factor in to the trade value of a player.

If you look to sell a player with 5th round keeper value for a 2023 4th round pick, then the buyer has to pay 2 picks - a 4th and a 5th (assuming he plans to keep the acquired player).

Also, you won’t know what the 4th round pick is actually worth. If only 5 players are dropped from the first three draft rounds, the 4th round pick you just acquired could be the 6th overall pick in the 2023 draft.

Trades involving draft picks will be very tricky to evaluate. Again, that’s no criticism, just a matter-of-fact statement. Certainly adds some spice.

Another question that just pops up in my mind (not sure if I asked it before, sorry if I did): what happens if I trade my 2023 1st away, but also keep my 2022 1st round player (thus giving up my 2023 1st)?

No man, love the discussion and different views. There is nothing to compare to with this league and I have been known to not only turn over every rock but the pebbles underneath. lol

Keep it coming!!!

Any keeper will cost the draft pick in the round selected. If a team has two in the same round they will be charged the next available pick.

Come August we should have a limited trade window for picks and players followed by keeper selections and the draft.

You and I are much the same. I cannot wait for the challenge of sorting out which way is up in this trio of decisions. I have actually had all 3 commissioners say they want in if anyone drops out just for the challenge of sorting out the off season puzzle.

1 Like

Another question that just pops up in my mind (not sure if I asked it before, sorry if I did): what happens if I trade my 2023 1st away, but also keep my 2022 1st round player (thus giving up my 2023 1st)?

If you trade your first round pick you cannot pay to keep a first round player.

I made this league similar to dynasty but not as restrictive. You do not HAVE TO keep your players but it will cost you if you do not.

Trading a player you will not be keeping to get something in return as opposed to losing him for nothing is a smart move. However, you have to look for a player in return who you will be keeping and whose draft pick cost fits your team.

Any thoughts on how to charge the roster with a separate rookie 2 round draft?

If I charge the last two picks it would not reflect value and then you would have two more the following year building from the bottom.

Not really, tbh. There usually is a steep drop-off in value after the first few picks. 1-3 players (especially RBs) may represent true early round value, but towards the end of the first round, you will find players that will go only in late rounds in redraft leagues.

If you assign the value too high, it will not be worth carrying any rookies over to the next season. If you assign it too low, some players will forever remain with the teams that drafted them. If you manage to get your hands on a top 10 guy with mid or even late round draft capital, you would never ever trade that player.

That is my dilemma and why it looks like one draft. . .

1 Like

My gut says that’s the way to go, indeed. That also gives some extra incentive to drop valuable players, which should keep the league alive.

1 Like

I also continue to re-evaluate trades wondering if it would be best to wait until after all managers have gone through the keeper process to have a better understanding of what the draft is going to look like.

I do not want to complicate things too much in the first year which is going very well so far.

The last time I was in a keeper league, which was about 20 years ago and we only had 2 keepers, everything was thrown into the same draft.

Separate rookie drafts are only useful in a dynasty setting, although even dynasty leagues allow for picking up free agents in the draft, although that is usually only garbage players who were cast off in favor of actually drafting their picks (i.e. you drop 4 players to use 4 draft picks).

I haven’t seen much trading of draft picks so far? Wanna trade me your 1st rounder so we can test this? :wink:

1 Like

Draft pick trades are not allowed this year but will be next year.

Keepers only have one draft but that does not mean I will not try to figure two.