A nice rundown from CBS Fantasy.8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/23 Player Team Age 2022
1 1 1 1 1 1 Justin Jefferson MIN 24 357
2 2 2 2 2 2 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 23 331
3 4 3 6 5 3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 24 306
7 12 7 3 3 4 Jaylen Waddle MIA 24 280
17 14 13 12 6 5 Garrett Wilson NYJ 23 280
24 16 8 8 7 6 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 23 280
25 31 16 17 16 7 DeVonta Smith PHI 24 289
8 5 5 5 4 8 A.J. Brown PHI 26 306
6 7 6 9 9 9 Tee Higgins CIN 24 280
4 3 4 4 23 10 Cooper Kupp LAR 30
A nice rundown from CBS Fantasy.8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/23 Player Team Age 2022
Kupp is a tuff call for 2023. He sat out a bunch of games but not many with injury but the Rams shutting him down. He will be 30 but so was Adams this past year.
Add in the QB questions, like Adams, and he will go off and lead the league in receiving.
I cannot see Smith over Brown and St Brown may be second fiddle to Jameson.
Compare your list with where they finished in our league (points scored) and with their 2021 ranks:
- Justin Jefferson (298) - 4th
- Tyreek Hill (284) - 6th
- Davante Adams (275) - 3rd
- AJ Brown (244) - 32nd
- Stefon Diggs (242) - 7th
- Ceedee Lamb (234) - 18th
- Jaylen Waddle (213) - 16th
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (206) - 21st
- Amari Cooper (201) - 27th
- DeVonta Smith (196) - 29th
How does anyone rank Waddle over Hill, when there was 71 points of difference between them?
Notice the oldest one on the CBS list, aside from Kupp, was AJ Brown at 26. And he got knocked down from 4th to 8th. At 26, Brown has at least 3 good years left, and possibly more. He can easily outplay DeVonta Smith for the foreseeable future.
If you look at this year’s top 10 list, 5 of them were 26 or older. The bias towards youth on the CBS list is dangerously stupid, especially when you consider 4 of the top 5 were 26 or older. In addition, aside from Justin Jefferson, the only 3 other guys to repeat as top 10 were all 26 and older.
The CBS list is more “fantasy” than fantasy football.
It is pretty much the same as PFF and FP dynasty. Age does matter.
I’m not saying age doesn’t matter. But WR’s rarely fall off the age cliff at 26. And when a WR is established as elite, they are also less likely to hit that cliff at 26. Jerry Rice was 40 when he had his last 1000 yard season. Tim Brown was 35 when he had his last 1000 yard season. Harold Carmichael’s last 1000 yard season came when he was 32. I could go on, but you get the point. WR’s can be productive well into their 30’s.
Ed is right on this one. Yes, age does matter. But downrating a 26 year old WR? Come on!
I can support ranking Waddle over Tyreek in a dynasty ranking. But leaving Tyreek out of the top 10, when he can easily have 2 more seasons at his current level? That’s a bit rich to me. Same for Stefon Diggs, who’s prominently absent here.
Leaving a soon-30 year old Cooper Kupp in the top 10 is just the icing on the cake.
I’m a bit lower on Amon-Ra, too. I don’t think he will fall off a cliff, but Jameson is going to cost him some production. Could even be that Jameson belongs in that top 10 list, and Amon-Ra does not.
And having 2 Philly WRs in the top 10 is very optimistic. Yes, the Eagles are great, but they are not a high-volume passing offense. DeVonta Smith is not a WR1 in my book.
My personal ranking:
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Justin Jefferson
- A.J. Brown
- Jaylen Waddle
- CeeDee Lamb
- Stefon Diggs
- Tyreek Hill
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Garrett Wilson
- Tee Higgins
Good posts and i cannot really dispute either one. I got to know the author some and am fairly sure he is just stirring the pot early as we saw the same with RBs at this time last year.
The gap between young and old has most definitely narrowed if not gone away entirely. The question for this coming season is who and how many will still believe in the older players and if if that creates great deals or disasters for managers.
For example, I am seriously thinking about taking Kupp (if dropped as expected) over Johnston. One has star potential for the next ten years but the oter can be the best in the game for a year or two or three.
My youth movement allows me that option I do not have to rely on. Kupp with Cee Dee and A J is a damn scary combination but a high risk considerating the other choice of Johnston.
Many will go through the same type of choices between young and old as will you two on Cook and Henry. As if we did not have enough to consider with challenging choices in this league, age and/or the age of transition now joins the mix.
I cannot wait until August to play this great game which is unfolding.
Hold that thought. The age cliff for RB’s is MUCH earlier, depending on their usage. Typically, it hits about 27 for bellcows, sometimes earlier if they get 370 touches in a season. Guys like Austin Ekeler get a pass due to their heavy passing game usage.
Both Cook and Henry have already shown some decline, so I hesitate to call them 1st round redraft picks any more. But I wouldn’t compare them to older WR’s like Davante Adams. I’d take Adams over either of them, even in half PPR.
Chase over Jefferson? Even though Jefferson topped him both of the last 2 seasons? Even though Chase lost a game unfairly due to the Bills-Bengals cancellation, Chase also missed 4 other games with injuries this year. Meanwhile, Jefferson hasn’t missed a game in 3 years. You can argue Jefferson won’t repeat as the best WR next year, but I would be surprised if he falls out of the top 4, whereas Chase was only the 5th best WR in 2021, and has fallen much farther in 2022.
Leaving the 3rd best WR over the last two seasons off your list? Davante Adams will burn your list.
I agree with you about Waddle and Tyreek. Hill still gets the edge due to speed, but dynasty is a crueler judge. As soon as Hill loses a step, he will still be good, but Waddle will easily surpass him.
This is a tough one. What if Detroit becomes a pass-heavy offense, like Cincinnati? Both St. Brown and Williams could feast. That said, St. Brown has shown himself to be an alpha WR, even without Williams. If I have to err in ranking the two of them, I would err towards St. Brown, especially in half or full PPR.
Garrett Wilson is an intriguing WR to try and rank. He’s had his up and down days, but that was mostly due to some wildly inconsistent QB play, as well as a reliance on the running game when Breece Hall was healthy. Wilson has the talent to be a top 10 WR, but his circumstance makes me skittish. It should be noted that Wilson has only finished as a top 10 WR in 3 weeks this season.
Time for my own dynasty WR rankings:
Justin Jefferson: He may not be the #1 WR in the NFL next year, but I can guaranty he will be in the top 5. How many other WR’s can you say that about?
AJ Brown: He is a top 5 WR for the first time in his career. When you see an elite WR hit his stride, you ride him like a thoroughbred.
3a. Davante Adams: He owns the #3 spot until he doesn’t. Even if he falls out of the top 3, I wouldn’t expect him to fall out of the top 10. He has all the skills to be a wily veteran WR well into his 30’s.
3b. Ceedee Lamb: He is just starting to become the elite WR that Dallas thought he could be. If Adams stumbles next year, Lamb could own this spot.
5a and 5b. Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle: Tyreek is the alpha here, make no mistake. Waddle is younger, and will be better for longer, but Tyreek will still dominate over the next 2 or so years. I’ll take 2 years of elite performance in any league.
Stefon Diggs: He gets knocked down a little because he can no longer consistently challenge top corners (see the recent Jets and Dolphins games).
Ja’Marr Chase: His injuries worry me. His potential rides up to #1, but his floor is a goose egg because he’s out with an injury. I’m splitting the difference.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: When in doubt, take the solid possession WR over the speedster. Give me St. Brown over Williams.
Cooper Kupp: I know, I know, injury and age. But before he got hurt, he had 6 top 9 finishes out of 9 games played. Even missing 8 games, he was still the NFL’s 21st best WR. Now for some history: Jerry Rice had his first season-ending injury at 35 in 1997. After that, he only missed one game in 2001 and 2003. He had 3 more 1000 yard seasons, as well as scoring 7 or more td’s 4 times. Kupp will only be 30 this year. Ignore him at your own risk.
Not by a wide margin. They both carry the same value for me. I’d give Chase the slight edge because there is a good chance this passing offense will remain as potent as it is for many years to come, while Jefferson may have to deal with a new QB in 2024.
Injuries? Plural? I am aware of only 1: a fracture to his hip, that he suffered in week 6 against the Saints, when a defender landed on him while he had all his weight on the affected leg during a TD catch. He finished the game with 132 yards and 2 TDs, played the next game vs Atlanta and got another 130 yards and 2 TDs, before he felt so much pain that he decided to leave the field.
Such injuries happen, and they can happen to every NFL player. There is no elevated risk of reaggravating that injury, and when Chase returned 5 weeks later, he looked like his old self.
If that is enough to scare you away from a player, you will not find too many players left to draft in the NFL.
If you want to rank Jefferson above Chase, that’s fine. But if you rank Chase 5 spots lower than Davante Adams in a dynasty ranking, I really have to question your sanity. Because that means that, if you had Chase, you would add something on top of him to acquire Adams. Which would easily make for the most terrible dynasty trade I’ve ever seen.
A WR who will turn 31 this year, and who may play for a new team and/or QB this season? I’d probably take the risk of ignoring him in redraft. I most definitely will in dynasty.
Have a chat with all the Julio Jones owners who said the same about him in recent years. We all know how that turned out.
Sorry, man, but this is clearly a case where your fan goggles cloud your view on real life football. Maybe he will have one more top 10 season (or maybe not). But to expect that he will keep playing on that level “well into his 30ies” (which already began) means hoping for a miracle. And they are very, very rare in the NFL.
When you are discussing the top 10, there’s not a wide margin when considering upside for all of them. However, Jefferson has shown to be the superior WR, even in an offense that doesn’t have Joe Burrow. If Chase comes out on top of Jefferson, it won’t be by much, whereas JJ can top Chase by a wide margin, like he did this year.
A hip fracture ended Bo Jackson’s career. Just saying, that it is cause for concern. Note that he is 8th on my list. He is still elite. He’s just has a smudge on his record that others don’t have.
You realize you just said he played a game with the injury and put up good stats. Who knows if he is still in pain now?
No, but it is enough for me to downgrade him against comparable players.
In the past 3 years, Adams has missed 3 games. This year, Chase missed 4. Any questions?
You do realize all player value is relative? If I have a top 10 WR, I am not likely to be trading them unless I suspect something about the player that the rest of the market either doesn’t, or discounts it.
To me, rankings like this are probabilities, not gospel. I just think the probability of Adams doing better than Chase in the next 2 years is more likely than vice versa.
He just had a good game with Jarrett Stidham at QB, against the 49ers. Adams is the kind of WR who will thrive anywhere, with anyone.
Sure, Jones fell off a cliff at 31. Jerry Rice fell off the cliff at 35 (and then came back for a few more all-pro seasons). I consider Adams closer to Jerry Rice than Jones.
When a WR works hard at their craft, they can last longer than most skill positions.
We are seeing the age exceptions vs youth at TE, QB, RB and WR. It is likely that year round conditioning and medical improvements had something to do with it.
Every manager will face decisions in this issue in trades, who to keep and who to draft. Also if you expect a player you want to be dropped do you free up an earlier pick to go after him?
All this will make your head hurt.
On a PPG basis, disregarding the BUF-CIN game, JJ finished #1, Chase #5. That’s not a wide margin in my book.
JJ’s biggest plus is that he is the clear alpha in Minny, whereas Chase has a 1b in Higgins. Which brings some merits in itself (see Waddle/Tyreek), but somewhat limits the upside.
If I had to bet who will score more points in 2023, my money would be on JJ once more. But as I said, we don’t know if Cousins will get yet another contract extension, and/or if the Vikings may add another top WR talent, with Thielen’s retirement looming. Chase’s team situation looks a bit more stable for years to come, unless there will be major surprises. But again, I can agree with those who have JJ over Chase.
What I cannot agree with is listing Chase as a low-end WR1. He’s the only WR under 28 who can play on the same level as JJ, with A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Jaylen Waddle firmly behind him.
Oh please! Do yourself a favor and read up on the injuries of Jackson and Chase. That’s not even apples and oranges anymore, that’s apples and spark plugs.
How do you know Davante Adams is not in pain?
Adams missed 4 games in 2019. Yet still, you seem to trust him.
So if you had Chase, you would trade him 1:1 for Adams, correct? Maybe even add a 3rd, in case the Adams owner insists on him?
Yet still, he told the Raiders yesterday that he wants to have a say in the search for a new QB. Stidham is an unrestricted free agent, come next week. He is one of many candidates for the vacant QB position.
Based on what premise, other than you really wishing for it?
Jerry Rice’s career ended 25 years ago. Chasing players in hope of them becoming the next Jerry Rice is chasing unicorns. Which, in general, is a terrible strategy in dynasty.
If he is, he doesn’t show it, and doesn’t miss as many games as Chase does.
And Cam Akers missed most of last season, yet you still drafted him?
After you get past 8th, that is when you see the first real dropoff, from a dynasty perspective. The difference between 1 and 8 is about a 4th round pick, so it isn’t even worth doing the trade.
The other aspect is age. Yes Adams has the age risk. But, he is what I’d call a “hold” in stock lingo. The only way you trade for him is from lower than top 10. But at #3, I wouldn’t trade him for anything less than JJ or AJ Brown, or possibly for another position, depending on the deal.
Let’s toss out a hypothetical. Assuming the Raiders don’t pick up a QB that Adams likes, I’m sure he has a no-trade clause that would limit their options for trading him, meaning he’d get to name his destination. That’s a lot of options, but I suspect Adams wants a Super Bowl. Expect Adams to get something he wants however this pans out. He already took less money just to get out of Green Bay.
I see Adams work ethic as closer to Rice than Jones. I’m not saying Adams will be another Rice, just that I doubt he will flame out like Jones did.
Okay, let me recap:
Chase played the last 5 games on his usual level, but you still don’t trust him, as he might be in pain, even though he’s not showing it.
Adams played the last 5 games on his usual level, and you trust him, because even if he is in pain, he doesn’t show it.
There’s those Raiders goggles again.
In the 9th round. Your point being?
If Adams falls to the 9th round in a dynasty startup draft, I will pick him immediately, after I stopped laughing. But I would laugh even harder if I see you picking Adams in the first half of the second round.
Also, as for Akers: he was expected to be the lead back for the Rams, a role with RB1 upside. That he wasn’t able to claim it until late in the season had nothing to do with injuries, but only with his attitude.
Really? In PPR, the difference between #3 (where you see Adams) and #8 (where you see Chase) based on PPG is 4.5.
You would miss the chance of swapping an injury-plagued player against a top player who has many productive years ahead of him, and who gives you 4.5 extra points every week?
We’re in a dynasty league. I just sent you the offer: I give you Adams, you give me Chase. Name one reason why you wouldn’t hit “accept” immediately?
What happened to:
What team do you see signing a soon-31 year old receiver on a 4 year contract that earns him a boatload of money?
Also, one of the hottest rumors in Sin City is that they will sign Tom Brady. Assuming they do, and Adams stays, would you still rank him as the #3 WR?
Brady is as done as McDaniel.
The difference being that Adams hasn’t had a significant injury in years.
Two elite WR’s? You send me a trade offer for two guys who are essentially even, then I know you want what I have. I can grab a 3rd rounder from you in addition to the player.
If you read my conclusion, that is basically what I said.
If I thought Adams wanted money, I’d ask why he didn’t accept Green Bay’s offer before.
That is salivating to consider. He might go up to #1.
I sent you a trade offer that will give you 4.5 PPG more each game, as per your projections. And you get the player I know you want, and that you have ranked higher. I’m not even asking for anything on top. Isn’t that incentive enough? Don’t you want the better dynasty player?
He wanted to play with his old college buddy. And ideally win a ring with him. Didn’t work out. If the ring was what he wanted, he should have stayed in Green Bay. Not that I’d expect them to win it all this year, but at least they still have a chance.
Really? I didn’t look it up, but seem to remember quite well that your pre-season projection for Brady was that he’s gone and done and his time was over.
If 45 year old Tom Brady was too old for the NFL, why isn’t 46 year old Tom Brady?
I said “probabilities”, not projections.
By the way, trading is more poker than anything else. Don’t forget that.
I will admit, I have mixed feelings about Brady. But the entire Bucs team got another year older. If Brady can play anywhere close to his peak, it could be fun to see him play with Adams.