Rookie ADP Top 40

Last time I did a rookie draft in a dynasty league, it was right after the NFL draft, which meant the ADP had pretty limited info, so I winged it. Now that we are into August, I can look over the rookie ADP and give some thoughts:

  1. RB Breece Hall (NYJ): Anybody who has watched his tape knows, the kid has got it. He will easily be an RB1, possibly as soon as this year.

  2. WR Drake London (ATL): This kid is starting to grow on me, as early word out of training camp is how he is using his size to dominate defenders. His college numbers were amazing, so there is no reason not to add him to your WR’s this early in dynasty.

  3. WR Treylon Burks (TEN): I don’t like Burks here, and it isn’t because of talent. He looks ready-made as an AJ Brown replacement. Unfortunately, Brown in Tennessee always seemed to have his upside limited by the team’s desire to run all the time. On top of that, now I hear Robert Woods has looked good in training camp, although he is still limited by his ACL recovery. I’ve even heard whispers of Woods being the alpha this year. Overall, not saying you shouldn’t draft Burks, just that you may want to wait a few picks.

  4. RB Ken Walker (SEA): Easily the 2nd best RB in this draft. If you’re RB-needy, he can easily be taken as early as 1.02.

  5. WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ): I got Wilson with the 6th pick in the first round, so I feel like I got a steal. He will likely be the Jets alpha at some point. Along with Elijah Moore, I love the Jets WR’s overall.

  6. WR Chris Olave (NO): Not sure if Olave is an alpha, but he is darned close talent-wise. But with Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas around (hopefully), Olave should get a chance to prove himself, at least as a capable WR2.

  7. WR Jameson Williams (DET): Drafting Williams is a wash for this year (due to recovering from an ACL tear), so this is all about 2023. But will Jared Goff still be his QB then? The problem there is Goff is not very accurate on his deep balls, and that is where Williams shines. The only thing I can figure here is Detroit is already planning for their next QB, and they figure they can wait a year for Williams.

  8. WR Skyy Moore (KC): The early hype is hot and heavy for Skyy Moore. I love the name and the talent (even if I hate Kansas City!). There’s a lot of WR’s in KC right now, but Moore has enough draft capital to keep him there long enough to learn the system. This draft spot seems a little too hot too early for me. Call me crazy, but I’d love to see Colt McCoy throwing to Skyy Moore. There’s a western movie in there somewhere!

  9. WR Christian Watson (GB): This guy is on the PUP list, and people are drafting him 9th? Remember, Watson is from North Dakota State, and needs ALL the training camp he can get! Sure, he has tons of talent and he’s in a great situation. That and a few bucks will get you a Starbucks burnt coffee. I’m passing here.

  10. RB James Cook (BUF): This is me rolling my eyes. The third down back in Buffalo? Do I need to remind you,. Josh Allen will run when he can’t find an open receiver. Third down back in Buffalo is about as useful as VP of the United States.

  11. WR Jahann Dotson (WAS): Anytime I see a player with “Washington” after their name, I move on, unless it is the 3rd round of a rookie draft (more on that later). I got Terry McLaurin in a redraft league last season, and was not impressed. You better be Michael Pittman is your QB is Carson Wentz, and Dotson isn’t that. This is a “waiting for 2023” pick.

  12. WR George Pickens (PIT): Pickens should be 7th on this list, not 12th. The Steelers should be called “WRU”, because they are the university of WR’s. They just keep churning out top-notch WR’s, no matter who or where they are from. Even if Pickens doesn’t shine this season, just wait for it. He’ll be WR goodness by next year. Even now, Pickens is the WR3 on the depth chart, so he could be productive this year, if you temper your expectations.

  13. RB Rachaad White (TB): For you Leonard Fournette haters out there, this rookie is for you! For this season, White is nothing more than a “hope Lenny gets hurt” wish. He might be worth more next year…or the Bucs could draft another RB. I’m not sure White is worth this much draft capital.

  14. RB Isaiah Spiller (LAC): This one isn’t a bad pick. Granted, Spiller didn’t have a great combine, so he might be over-rated. But his college tape is solid. He is already the only RB other than Ekeler to get first team reps in training camp.

  15. RB Dameon Pierce (HOU): Marlon Mack, Rex Burkhead, or Pierce? Pierce is arguably one of the most under-utilized RB’s in college last season, with most analysts blaming the former Florida HC who got fired mid-season. Basically, of all the analysis I’ve read, Pierce is either a screaming steal or the next Trey Sermon. It’s a fair gamble here.

  16. WR David Bell (CLE): Let me get this straight: We are looking at a WR on a run-happy team, with a new QB who might miss anywhere from the first 6 games to the entire season? I’ll pass, and not in the football sense.

  17. WR Alex Pierce (IND): I took Pierce with the 3.04 pick in a 12 team draft. Steal! He’s a solid pick, but I just wasn’t confident about how much work he’d get in Indy’s offense. Plus I had other needs on my roster.

18 WR John Metchie (HOU): He is out for the season with treatable leukemia, but that doesn’t make me want to draft him.

  1. TE Trey McBride (ARI): Zach Ertz has the start in Arizona, so when will McBride steal it? If you’re a TE and your last name isn’t “Pitts” or “Freiermuth”, forget starting as a rookie. This year’s TE class is a crapshoot. This pick is too early.

20 .WR Jalen Tolbert (DAL): I drafted Tolbert with the 3.03 pick. Steal! He is easily the WR3 in Dallas, and potentially even the WR2, depending on if Michael Gallup returns and in what shape he returns. He could easily be a few places higher on this list, and probably will be before the end of August.

  1. QB Kenny Pickett (PIT): If you follow the soap opera that is the QB position in Pittsburgh, you will know that every day means a new leader in this competition. One day it’s Trubisky, and the next it’s Pickett, and on and on. Even if Pickett doesn’t win, you know he will next year, unless Trubisky plays lights out football this season, or takes them to the playoffs. I expect whoever wins this battle coming out of training camp will take this team to the playoffs. Pickett’s a coin toss, but one with first round NFL draft capital.

  2. RB Tyler Allgeier (ATL): I drafted him at 2.01 in my 12 team dynasty, so I got a reasonable deal on him. Atlanta is Arthur Smith’s team (Smith was the OC for Derrick Henry in Tennessee), so expect some runs for the big guy (5’11", 220 pounds), who is about the same size as Damien Williams, but Williams is 30. Cordarelle? He needs a break after they overutilized him last season. I expect Cordarelle will still get some carries, but not the ground and pound ones.

  3. RB Zamir White (LV): I took him early, at the 1.09. But I feel somewhat vindicated after his performance against the Jags. He looked good, and I can easily see him replacing Josh Jacobs at some point, even if it’s next year. I should add that i knew there was another Raider fan in the same league drafting right after me, and I wanted to be sure I got him.

  4. WR Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG): Sure, he looks good in training camp. But he still has Daniel Jones throwing to him. This is another “wait until next year” pick.

  5. RB Brian Robinson (WAS): I got Robinson with the 3.06 pick. Semi-steal! This is about the only place I’d take a Washington player. As I said about him last time: “Another potential 2 down back. This bruiser from Alabama has some serious potential in the NFL. I like his chances to either fill in or even eventually replace Antonio Gibson, who has shown some injury tendencies.” He’s been running with the first team in camp, so he could be their 2 down-back.

  6. RB Tyrion Davis-Price (SF): I’ll let somebody else draft this guy. I don’t want the headaches of a Kyle Shanahan RB.

  7. QB Malik Willis (TEN): Would I really want a Tennessee QB? No thanks. Eventually, somebody will get bored with watching him do nothing until his rookie contract expires, an then I may take a shot on him.

  8. WR Jelani Woods (IND): Dart throw.

  9. WR Tyquan Thornton (NE): He is behind Jakobi Meyers on the depth chart. We’ll see. This guy is super fast, but still have to run the routes and catch the ball. It sounds easier than it looks.

  10. WR Khalil Shakir (BUF): Not seeing the light of day this season, as buried on the depth chart as he is.

  11. WR Velus Jones (CHI): He is the WR3 in Chicago already. This could be a steal, but I don’t have a ton of faith in Chicago’s front office.

  12. WR Romeo Doubs (GB): He is beginning to look like a better pick than Christian Watson, 2 rounds earlier in fantasy. Aaron Rodgers likes this guy, and Rodgers doesn’t normally like rookies.

  13. RB Hassan Haskins (TEN): Easily the long-term replacement for Derrick Henry, but he may still have to wait behind Dontrell Hilliard this season.

  14. TE Greg Dulcich (DEN): In my opinion, unless you have a superior TE prospect like Pitts or Freiermuth, you wait until the 4th round on them

  15. QB Desmond Ridder (ATL): Solid QB with potential. I hear decent things from camp about him, but not enough for me to move him higher than this.

  16. RB Pierre Strong (NE): Buried on a depth chart in NE.

  17. RB Keaontay Ingram (ARI): HUGE dart throw!

  18. QB Matt Corral (CAR): I took him at the 1.08, but I can explain: QB’s with a fast release, such as Dan Marino, typically get under-rated by scouts. If you watch Corral, he is more dangerous than most QB’s in the game today. he may need to sit on the bench for a year, but with only Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield ahead of him, he WILL get his shot! The only thing to worry about with Corral is the Carolina coaching staff trying to mess with his mechanics, which are flawless. But he has HOF potential.

  19. WR Calvin Austin (PIT): Another WR going into WRU. Gotta love this kid! Just be patient.

40 RB Tyler Badie (BAL): I drafted him at 4.04. Good RB on the small side. I stashed him on my taxi squad.

Honorable Mention: TE Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ): I took him with the 4.09 pick, my last. He is going at 50 in ADP. He was a TE dart throw to my taxi squad.

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I have the same problem with Hall as I have with Saquon: his team. The Jets were a little bit more efficient than the Giants when running the ball, but the bottom line was just as bad. If Hall was an RB1 this year, then so is Saquon. I have Hall at #22.

Love the player, don’t like the landing spot. You can only hope the Falcons have finally figured out their offense by the time London enters his prime. But it’s indeed hard to pass on his talent.

“Love the player, don’t like the landing spot” is THE theme of the 2022 draft class. But I’m a little less concerned with Burks. We’ve been spoiled with plug-and-play WRs in the last 2 years, but the norm is still that WRs enter their prime only in year 3. By then, Henry and Woods are gone and the Titans will have a new QB. There is hope for Burks.

The second best RB, but in a promising landing spot. Yes, the 2022 Seahawks are a mess. I still expect them to run the ball a lot. And Penny won’t stay healthy.

I don’t. Camp rumors don’t instill a lot of hope in Zach Wilson’s development. “Kid doesn’t have it” seems to be the current mood. That can’t be good for his namesake WR. The talent is phenomenal, though. Love the player, don’t like… you know.

Not yet, he still needs some polishing. But he’s in the best situation of all top rookie WRs this year: playing under a pass-happy QB, with only a very questionable asset sitting on top of him on the depth chart, and not a lot of pressure for targets behind him. I have him at WR21 this year, and that’s with Thomas healthy and active. If not…

That is my guess. Williams may not even be active to start the season, so he’ll be of little use this year. But he’s a fantastic stash for 2023 and beyond.

I agree. Moore is a boom-or-bust candidate, as we have no idea what the target distribution will look like in KC. They could become the 2021 Cowboys: top passing offense, but not a single top 15 WR in sight. Moore could easily become the next Mecole Hardman.

Me too. Could have gotten him at 2.01 just this week, took George Pickens instead. I’m a cheesehead, and I want no shares in Watson. Doubs is the rookie WR to draft in Green Bay.

Maybe they plan to change that, but I wouldn’t buy into it, either. Cook wasn’t Buffalo’s guy. They wanted Breece Hall, and got ninja’d by the Jets. Pass.

But a good one. I would have taken him if he had fallen to me anywhere. He didn’t, though.

It’s hard to argue that. I got Pickens everywhere, even at 2.02 in my super-RB-needy team. Couldn’t pass on that value. That the Steelers extended Diontae was a surprise, though. I thought they had drafted Pickens as his successor. It will be interesting to see if Pickens spells trouble for Claypool now.

I don’t hate Lenny at all, but still like White. The only problem is that his path to success is establishing himself as the pass-catching RB in Tampa Bay. But Tom Brady isn’t exactly known to like throwing the ball to rookies. That path could be rocky.

Spiller is a backup to Ekeler. Nothing else. He shows the same profile. As an Ekeler owner, I would have been more concerned if they had brought in a bruiser, as that one could have worked as a complement to Ekeler. Spiller is a handcuff with a small chance to establish himself as a successor. I passed on him, even though I could have drafted him at 2.02. Took Pickens instead. In the league where I have Ekeler, I will try to trade for him when the time is right, to have him as a handcuff.

That sums it up nicely. He has a good chance to establish himself as a starter, but we need to keep in mind that role still isn’t worth a ton in Houston. I would have taken with the 2.02 for my RB-needy team, but got ninja’d. Didn’t shed a tear and took Pickens instead, who is the much better value.

Me too. Never understood Bell’s appeal. There are at least 3 much better WRs in a much better position further down the list.

Absolutely. I’d have taken him at 2.12, if Tolbert hadn’t been there as well. I had hoped Pierce would fall to the 3.04, but he didn’t. Solid player, great team situation. Gimme!

He was taken towards the end of round 3 in both my dynasty leagues, and that’s fair value for a speculative stash. Fingers crossed for him.

Earliest next year. And then he will need another 2 years to become a good fantasy option. But you need to be prepared to stash TEs for at least 3 years, so that’s okay. I took Albert O with the 3.04 in my RB-needy league (we draft rookies & free agents there).

Exactly. I see him as the WR2 in a pass-happy team that, contrary to last year, doesn’t have a whole lot of pass catchers around this year. I got him at 2.12 in one league, and am quite angry with myself for giving in to the RB pressure and selecting TDP at 2.09 over Tolbert for my RB-need team.

I heard only voices who say Trubisky will be the starter. In SFLEX leagues, you can draft Pickett in the 1st round if you need a QB. In single QB leagues, I wouldn’t draft him at all.

So was Cordarrelle last year. I passed on Allgeier and grabbed Williams in the 5th round for my RB-needy team.

Did you miss Jacobs’ touches? White didn’t look bad, but Jacobs looked better and was more efficient in every aspect. Jacobs is the lead back and White is his backup, with a small chance to establish himself as a potential successor.

Also, the low-volume Giants have a multitude of pass catchers on the roster. Pass, on any Giants WR, be it a rookie or veteran.

I’d call it a super steal. Robinson has the draft capital to his name and an oft-injured RB ahead of him. He isn’t guaranteed to get a lot of workload this year, but the chance is there. I’m trying to trade for him as we speak.

It’s a complete lottery, but at least with a nice prize. Using 3rd round draft capital on yet another RB tells me the Niners don’t fully trust Mitchell. He’s not TDP’s only problem, though, as reports suggest Sermon looks great in camp. I bought the lottery ticket, but I admit I am having second thoughts. The hope for TDP having a Mitchell’esque season, thus solving my RB problems, got the better of me.

I would have taken him in my SFLEX if he had fallen to the back of the second round. He didn’t, though.

He went surprisingly early in both of my leagues. TE#2 off the board in one, TE#3 in the other. I don’t really understand why. I’d much rather take Dulcich, Otton or Bellinger. What are we missing with Woods?

And we all know his HC. One drop, and he’s off to the dog house. Pass, despite the draft capital, which means nothing in NE.

Not a bad late round stash. Yes, he’s buried on the depth chart, but at least it’s the depth chart of a team with a high-value passing offense, where even the WR3 could be fantasy relevant.

I don’t have a lot of faith in the player, either. If I wanted a story about a guy who’s way too old to be a rookie, I’d watch Nathan Fillion as Officer Nolan in “The Rookie” (actually a really good TV series).

Amen. I got Doubs at 4.01 and did a little dance of celebration. I’d still temper expectations, but we’re talking about a WR who’s playing for a team without a clear WR1, who makes amazing plays at TC, and gets a lot of praise from one of the best QB of all times. One who, as you said, rarely praises rookies, if ever.
Draft capital doesn’t mean anything to Rodgers. You need his trust. Lazard and Tonyan are both UDFAs, and when they earned Rodgers’ trust, they became good.
Doubs is my favorite WR sleeper in the entire NFL at the moment, not just among rookies. Gimme!

Nope. One of his 2 backups, who will share the workload if Henry goes down. If the Titans thought he could be Henry’s successor, they would not have waited until the 4th round to grab him. The backup role alone does make him draft-worthy in the later rounds of rookie drafts, though. I hope I can turn him into a 2023 2nd if Henry gets injured.

Interesting prospect in an intriguing situation. But he still has Albert O ahead of him.

In SFLEX, I’d draft him in round 2, ahead of Willis and Howell, and around the same range as Corral. In single QB leagues, not at all.

NE uses several RBs in specific roles. If Strong can carve out such a role, he may earn some appeal. Damien Harris could be gone next year. But if I wanted an RB lottery ticket, I’ll buy one from SF, that promises more upside.

Whoa! Let’s start with “he has a chance to claim a starter spot at some point” and take it from there, shall we?

I see him like Khalil Shakir: buried on the depth chart of an interesting team. The extension for Diontae took away a lot of his potential, though.

He’s okay as a 4th round stash. But he’s also buried on the depth chart of a team where the RB1 is the QB. Very little upside.

There is quite some buzz around Ruckert. I’d rather have Daniel Bellinger, but he went in the 4th round of my rookie draft, while Ruckert went undrafted. I’m still undecided whether or not to scoop him up.

As I said, not necessarily this year. If Zach Wilson becomes the QB who the Jets expect, it could open up running lanes for Hall. But this remains to be seen.

Remember last year when the Steelers extended Juju for a year? We could still see Diontae leave in 2 years.

Don’t forget, Brady likely won’t be in TB next year. No idea who will be, so nearly any TB player is a question mark for next season.

I’ve been reading more than one rumor that Jacobs was being featured as trade bait. Why else would you start your lead RB with your second stringers in the first preseason game?

Do I need to remind you Dan Marino wasn’t the starter in Miami on the first day of his first season? In fact, he only started 9 games. Don’t be surprised to see Corral step in once Mayfield faceplants.

Hall has a lot more talent than Carter who showed well in NY last year.

I wanted London as Miami’s top pick at the end of last season. Contested, deep,
screens and can block. Star power.

Not a big Burks fan.

Walker looks to be a RB 2 at least.

Cook will surprise many. He put on 10 pounds before Indy to show desire to be a comlete back. I think he will be.

Skyy is in an ideal situation and love his upside with little late pick risk.

Pierce has a fair chance to be good for a year or maybe 2.

I don’t do dynasty leagues so much of this is irrelevant to me, but I had to giggle at celebrating the alpha of a team who hasn’t gotten more than 941/7 out of a WR since 2015–but hey, at least it’s better than the Jets’ second-stringers!