Why was D'ernest Johnson ranked so low?

I rely on the Start/Sit Assistant pretty much 9 times out of 10, and has certainly played a role in me being 5-1 right now. I have Antonio Gibson, JD Mckissic, and D’Ernest Johnson. Prior to last nights game, the assistant had Gibson at 90%, McKissic at 85% and D’Ernest at 24%. For some reason, I went against the start/sit assistant and played D’Ernest, and we know how that turned out. Those percentages (90%, 85%, 24%) were generated after selecting all of the fantasy experts. Does anyone know why Johnson was ranked so low, and only had a 24%? The experts knew that Johnson would be getting a bulk of the carries.

That’s the problem with a consensus ranking: many experts that contributed to it will not update their rankings every day, and may still have had Chubb in their projections. Also, many expected a more equal snap share between Johnson and Demetric Felton.

Hardly anybody expected Johnson to put up such a stellar performance. Had you asked me yesterday whom of those 3 RBs you should start, my ranking would have been the same.

Even while expecting Johnson to start, I would have expected the Browns to fall behind early and rely more on the pass than on the ground game. Plus, I thought the Broncos D would be able to keep Johnson in check.

“Getting the bulk of carries” does not always result in a good fantasy production. It certainly did yesterday, though.


Yep, makes sense.


Have you ever done stock market analysis? There are things called “lagging indicators”, which are objective tools based on past data. Unfortunately, new information about a stock cannot be taken into account by these objective measures, so they look foolish when a company files bankruptcy or becomes a breakout star.

ECR is exactly like that. It’s data that has become stale, and only really works in “normal” situations. When a player has a breakout game, or another player has an injury that impacts the first player, ECR could take a week or longer to pick up on this. Sometimes, you have to use your own judgement, or listen to podcasts or read articles to know how to deal with certain situations, Even then, many “experts” may miss the forest for the trees (see ECR analysis on CMC during the drafts this year). They can get things wrong, even if they are agreeing with the “herd”.