“Start/Sit Assistant” says to start Johnson and bench Harris (says Johnson is RB 37, Harris RB 109). “Who should I start” says 100% Harris. What gives?
You want to drive to a place on the other side of town. You jump in the car and punch the destination into the satnav. It tells you you will arrive in about 14 hours.
Will you follow the satnav?
I certainly hope you won’t, because obviously, something is amiss here.
28 NFL teams play this week. In most of them, no more than 2 or 3 RBs will see a snap. So in total, only ~70 RBs will register a stat line this week. If a software tells you that an active and healthy bellcow RB is projected at RB109, then obviously, something is wrong.
A quick look into the weekly rankings tells us: Najee Harris is the RB4, but for whatever reason, does not show a projected score. Which is probably the detail the start/sit assistant is based on.
Thanks for the reply. I’d never start Johnson over Harris, except for Harris’ BYE or if he was injured. It’s been corrected now. Harris is showing as RB4. Had me worried for a minute. I was wondering about FantasyPros other suggestions.
I’d always recommend to take them with a grain of salt. Most tools are based on ECR, and that means it will include data from analysts who haven’t updated their rankings and projections in a while, or who may have shown rather poor accuracy in the specific field you’re just looking at.
I love stuff like FantasyPro’s podcasts or the primer, which gives me actual insight in why they predict certain outcomes. Which also allows me to deviate from their advice, in case I decide to disagree with the premise (which usually turns out to be a bad idea).
But ECR can be misleading, especially outside the top 20 for each position. And that also affects all tools that are based on ECR.
Just one example: there were several players this season who I actually saw going up in Dynasty ECR when they picked up season-ending injuries.
Don’t get me wrong, ECR is a great tool, and I use it every day. Just don’t base decisions on ECR alone. Just like you should never blindly follow your satnav.