Which do you use as a guide on draft day?
I use my own draft list, however I also consult the ADP. That’s a better guide as to who people might draft before my next pick comes around, so I can get the jump on a player I want, or players who have fallen.
ADP tends to over-value last year’s big names. James Robinson and Raheem Mostert are good examples for that.
ECR is a bit of a mixed bag. My main gripe is that there are several teams where the ECR for QB and WR are completely out of sync.
Buffalo for example, where everybody agrees that Josh Allen will be throwing the ball a lot, again. But apparently, there are no pass catchers aside from Stefon Diggs. Because all other are ranked surprisingly low in ECR.
The Jaguars are another example. Everybody seems to expect Trevor to do well, but his entire receiving corps is ranked #35 and lower. I get it, there is an uncertainty who will turn out to be Trevor’s favorite target. But, as a matter of fact, if Trevor manages to throw for some ~4000 yards, someone will have to catch a few balls. Maybe even in the end zone.
There also are a few individual players whose ranks do not match the performance I’d project for their team. Jalen Hurts for example. In order for him to become a top 10 QB, the Eagles would have to be a top 10 fantasy offense. They were in 2019, but in 2020, they were #25 in terms of team fantasy value. Do we really expect them to be #10 again this year? I don’t, and that’s why I have ranked Hurts only as QB17 for the season.
All these are details you can’t extract from ADP or ECR. But after having done my own projections for the first time this year, I’m not sure yet if the effort is worth the result. If the result will be better at all. Maybe Hurts will finish as QB8, and I will hope nobody will dig up these old threads after the season.
Agreed. I only recommend ADP as a predictor for what others are likely to do, so you can anticipate what to pick on your turn. ADP is almost a necessary tool when you’re drafting at one of the turns in a snaking draft.
Also agreed. My favorite example of this is how Saquon Barkley is so highly valued by experts, but Daniel Jones is so lowly valued. Saquon is no Derrick Henry who bulls his way thru defenses, nor is he a Barry Sanders miracle worker. Exactly how does Saquon get to big numbers? Jones isn’t known for throwing a lot of dumpoffs either, like Eli Manning. So there won’t be much passing game to pull defenses off of Saquon, who is coming back from knee surgery. The ECR is just wrong here.
It is, because it forces you to decide who you really want before the draft. If you make mistakes, you’ll see it unfold during the season, and you can account for those mistakes in your next year’s projections.