Who would you prefer as your RB1? Jones or Chubb

I’m #3 overall in the draft, and my league does it where your keeper is your draft pick according to that players ADP. I’m expecting team #2 to keep Hill and #1 to keep nobody. So after trying to figure out who my other league mates would keep, I’m thinking I’ll have my pick of either Aaron Jones or Nick Chubb as my RB1. Which of those 2 would you rather have?

Granted team #1 may keep one, meaning I won’t have a choice to make. But just in case I do, I was curious what others thought. Thanks!

I’d lean towards Chubb. He has higher upside, although granted that is IF Kareen Hunt gets injured. But his floor is still better than Jones.

I think I’d go with Jones. He has the higher upside, as long as Chubb is mired in a committee. He certainly has the higher floor, given that Chubb could easily fall out of the top 10 if he loses just 2 of his 12 TDs last season to OBJs return, or Hooper’s recovery and progress, or just random chance.

I have to respectfully disagree with AxeElf. We’ve seen Jones’ upside and floor the last 2 seasons: He is totally dependent on TD’s. Chubb can do better, but he is reliant on opportunity for his upside. If you feel comfy with Jones for TD’s, then he’s your pick. But I’d gamble on Chubb for upside.

Yep. In 2020, he was the RB5 in all scoring formats (floor), and in 2019, he was the RB3 in standard and RB2 in PPR (upside).

Chubb, on the other hand, has been the RB 7 and 9 in standard scoring, and the RB 9 and 11 in PPR scoring, in those two seasons–with very little interference from OBJ or Hooper (both conditions that are likely to change this season).

You know Chubb is capable of much better stats. Just look at his history. The only thing holding him back is Kareem.

I just DID look at his history. He’s been in the league three years. His best 2 years were the past 2 years, when he was the RB7 and RB9 in standard scoring, and the RB9 and RB11 in PPR scoring.

Has anything changed to make you think that he is capable of better stats than he has put up the past two years, when he was playing with no/injured Hooper and no/injured OBJ? I’ll tell you what’s changed–those two major red zone targets are back.

If Chubb loses just 2 of his 12 TDs–and keeps all the rest of his stats consistent from last year–he drops to RB13.

Can you think of a circumstance in which Aaron Jones would drop out of the top 10, barring injury? Is that circumstance more or less likely than Chubb losing 2 TDs?

And this is bad because…why?

I don’t know; you tell me–you’re the only one who has called it bad.

I just said it was less compared to Jones.

You’re the one who says Chubb is worse than Jones. You tell me?

Yes, I’m the one who says Chubb is worse than Jones. You’re the one describing Chubb’s performance as “bad.”

So you tell me.

Wel thanks for that back and forth gentlemen! Haha. There’s also a chance Zeke doesn’t get kept so he’s a potential option. I could see Rodgers and the packers going nuclear this year, so I think I’m slightly leaning Jones over Chubb, but I’ll have to wait and see what the rest of the league does.

Well if you can get Zeke then the whole question becomes moot.

I didn’t describe Chubb’s performance as bad, I asked you why you thought it was?

Why would you think that I thought it was?

You were downplaying him.

I was contrasting him with one other specific player, Aaron Jones.

I personally favor Chubb in this situation for his consistency and I think he is working behind one of the best O-lines which should also be beneficial to him. You get consistency with Chubb potentially at the expense of TDs but he still puts numbers up. Aaron Jones goes hot and cold and it sucks when he doesn’t put numbers up. I also don’t like that a couple of the key guys in Green Bay wanted out and came into the training camp fresh off of the negative stuff instead of getting their guys together to work and develop the team chemistry and timing. Never thought I say that part of things looked better in Cleveland than Green Bay.

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