12 team , Standard league. This season we have 3 keepers. Who should I keep between Nick Chubb or Saquon Barkley !? Any insight would be appreciated.
More info. 3 keepers from Mark Andrews, Deebo Samuel , Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley. So technically could keep both RBs?
Andrews is a lock here.
Deebo, Chubb and Saquon are dart throws. I’m lower on all 3 than most analysts;
Deebo = WR#11
Chubb = RB#12
Saquon = RB#15
If you want to keep Deebo, I’d keep Saquon in PPR and Chubb in a standard scoring league.
Whomever you decide to not keep, see if you can trade them before you cut them. There might be a team that would see them as an upgrade over one of their current keepers. Your best chances may be with Deebo here, in case another owner thinks he can bring another top 3 season.
Between Chubb and Barkley. I would keep Barkley (thinking Deshaun Watson is suspended for the year.) Chubb in a Cleveland offence run by Brissett or Barkley in a Brian Daboll offence. I would go with the upside of Barkley. Chubb is a solid 8-12 ranked RB but that’s what he will always be. Barkley has the upside of being a Top 4 RB with his 3 down role.
How many team passing and rushing yards do you project for the Giants?
Agree with @ZakHH about Andrews being a lock here. He has strong TE1 upside.
That leaves the other three.
I have no faith in Deebo to repeat, so trade him if you can. Lance may be a strong QB prospect, but a lot of that is based more on his running ability than his accuracy as a passer. We’ll see whether he is closer to Steve Young or Jalen Hurts this year, but I’d bet closer to Hurts.
Barkley is like the old joke about second marriages: The triumph of hope over experience. Last year, he played 13 games and totaled 856 yards (rushing and receiving). IF Barkley lasted the entire year, he’d have had 1119 yards from scrimmage. But he hasn’t played more than 13 games since his rookie year. On top of that, are you going to tell me that adding Brian Daboll as HC, but almost no new real talent, suddenly makes Barkley valuable? With Daniel Jones at QB, I have a hard time growing any kind of faith in that dead cactus.
On the other hand, Nick Chubb has had over 1000 rushing yards the past 3 seasons, including 2020 when he only played 12 games. You can say “But Deshaun Watson won’t be there?” He wasn’t there last year either, as Baker Mayfield was miserable, and Chubb still had 1259 rushing yards at a 5.5 average per attempt. Cleveland’s offensive line is a brutal, smash-mouth group. Just look at Cleveland’s other RB’s: Kareem Hunt 4.9 yards/attempt and D’Ernest Johnson 5.3 yards/attempt.
Chubb may never produce CMC-style numbers, but he is a much safer floor than CMC or Barkley. Keep Chubb.
That is exactly my issue with many Giants projections, and also the reason for my question above.
Some analysts see both Barkley and Toney as potential top 10 candidates on their respective positions, and I wonder just how much volume they predict for the 2022 Giants.
I see the Giants improving under Brian Daboll. I’m even ready to not write Daniel Jones off just yet. We tend to forget that he offers quite a bit of rushing upside and can easily add 400 yards and 2-3 TDs on the ground.
But expecting the Giants to miraculously turn from a sub-par offense in both passing and rushing into an overall top 3 offense in just one offseason is way, way too rich for me.
I have them at 3,700 yards passing (up 500 from 2021) with 20 TDs (+5) and 1,700 yards rushing (same as 2021) and 11 TDs (+3). And I feel that’s pretty optimistic already. But to turn both Saquon and Toney into top 10 players, they’d probably need around 4,500 passing yards. I’ll believe that when I see it.
I don’t do projections but thinking in terms of the 2 players situations.
Barkley is in a new offence under Daboll with limited competition (Matt Brieda) and has been a Top 5 RB in the past. Barkley has rushing and receiving component to his game.
Chubb is in a Brissett led offence with Hunt as competition. And Chubb is basically a rusher with limited receiving.
When looking at the roster competition (which is indeed a tremendously important factor in projecting players) Saquon’s situation looks indeed a lot better than Chubb’s.
But the team volume still plays a role as well. And the 2021 Browns looked a lot better than the 2021 Giants there:
520 pass attempts for 3,320 yards, 21 TDs
485 rushing attempts for 2,471 yards, 20 TDs
593 pass attempts for 3,196 yards, 15 TDs
419 rushing attempts for 1,688 yards, 8 TD
Now, I do expect the Giants’ passing game to improve, but I don’t think they will run the ball more than they did in 2021. With a more legitimate passing threat, their run game may become a little more efficient. I expect them to rack up the same yards in fewer attempts, and also score a few more TDs on the ground.
The projection for Cleveland is still up in the air. Hopefully, we will know more about their QB situation in the next 48 hours. But even if Brissett will start for at least a good portion of the season, I don’t think it will hurt Chubb too much. WIth a mediocre passer under center (politely said), the Browns will likely run the ball as much as they did in 2021, if not more.
Chubb will still not be more than a low-end RB1, due to the lack of passing volume. But he offers a very safe floor, and even some upside. 2021, he finished as RB#9, despite missing 3 games.
Saquon is in a pretty comfortable situation, as he indeed has little competition for touches. But last year, Daniel Jones soaked up 27.3% of the rushing yards and 38.6% of the rushing TDs during the 11 games he played. So even if Matt Breida will see only 10-15% of the touches, Saquon will still see less than 70% of the ground work. The Giants probably don’t want him to handle more than that, to keep him healthy.
With the expected overall team volume, a 65% rushing share and ~15% passing share will not be enough to elevate him into RB1 territory.
To become top 10, he’d need to work in a true workhorse role, same as JT or Najee.
To become top 5, the Giants would also have to drastically increase their team volume.
I think Saquon’s realistic ceiling is RB#10-12. That’s Chubb’s floor, as long as he’s healthy.
Would you rather have a #1 WR on a bad offense, or a #2 WR on a good offense? Would you rather have Amari Cooper on the Browns, or Tee Higgins on the Bengals? Or Allen Robinson on the Rams? Or Hunter Renfrow on the Raiders?
My point is that not all number 1’s are better than number 2’s.