Week 16 lineup (half PPR SFLEX)

Fantasy semifinals are here, and of course, my dynasty warriors begin to struggle. Let’s hope week 16 will be better than week 15, otherwise the championship game is in jeopardy.

Leage format is an SFLEX, half PPR dynasty.
1x QB / 1x SFLEX (QB/RB/WR/TE) / 2x RB / 2x WR / 1x FLEX (RB/WR/TE) / 1x TE / 1x K / 1x DST

My starters:

Justin Herbert (at HOU)
Patrick Mahomes (vs PIT)

These ones are no-brainers, as my bench QBs are Gardner Minshew and Jordan Love.

Austin Ekeler (at HOU)
Josh Jacobs (vs DEN)

Bench: Damien Harris, Michael Carter, Sony Michel. Rhamondre Stevenson, Samaje Perine, D’Ernest Johnson, Dontrell Hilliard, Justin Jackson, Demetric Felton, Larry Rountree, Kene Nwangwu.

Should Ekeler be out (there are conflicting reports whether or not he’s on the Covid list), I’d consider starting Justin Jackson for him.

Ja’Marr Chase (vs BAL)
Diontae Johnson (at KC)

Bench: Amari Cooper, Jakobi Meyers, KJ Osborn, Gabriel Davis, Mecole Hardman, Josh Reynolds, Josh Palmer.

Chase is a bit unstable, but the Ravens secondary isn’t scary, so there’s hope he’ll bounce back from his abysmal week 15 production. For Amari, I’m not so sure, he’s not even a flex option at the moment. I’d prefer Osborn (if Thielen remains out) or Gabriel Davis (Beasley is definitely out, Sanders probably too). Even Josh Reynolds looks flex-startable these days.

Pat Freiermuth (at KC)
Or James O’Shaughnessy (at NYJ), in case Freiermuth is not available with his concussion. I’m short-stacked on TE, have no other healthy options.

Any of the above bench RBs / WRs. I’m currently leaning towards Gabriel Davis (see above). Sony Michel or Michael Carter are options, too.

Jason Sanders (MIA, at NO)
Bench; Tyler Bass (BUF, at NE).
Waiver options: Evan McPherson (CIN, vs. BAL), Matthew Wright (JAC, at NYJ).
I think I’ll roll with Sanders here.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs BAL)
Bench: Buffalo Bills (at NE)
Waiver options: Green Bay Packers (vs. CLE), Denver Broncos (at LV). Guess I’ll stick with the Bengals.

Any thoughts / concerns / ideas?

I think you have it right. Good luck!

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So far, so good. Michael Carter looks like he’ll be out (COVID), so scratch him from your options. I would add Damien Harris to your options, if he’s playing.

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So, Ekeler and Freiermuth have been ruled out. Damien Harris is questionable and will be a game time decision. At least, he’s playing in the early window tomorrow.

Gabriel Davis has also been ruled out - there goes my intended FLEX play.

So I need to decide who I run on RB (2 slots) and FLEX:
Josh Jacobs
Sony Michel
Justin Jackson
Damien Harris (Q)
Michael Carter (definitely not on the COVID list)

Amari Cooper is too unstable for me to be comfortable starting him on FLEX. Osborn it too risky as well, as Thielen may return. Josh Reynolds is playing for the Lions and is now questionable with a thigh injury. Jakobi Meyers is playing against a stout Bills secondary, and doesn’t have much of a ceiling even against weaker opponents. And Mecole Hardman… well, no. I’m not even sure I want to carry him over to the next season, let alone start him this week.

So it looks like I need to pick 3 RBs from the 5 above options. Which 3 would you pick?

Stevenson is out so start Harris against a Bills team struggling against the run. With Ekler out start Jackson vs a Houston team that struggles against everyone. The best back, on the best offense of the remaining three is Michel vs Vikings.

I’d roll with Harris, Jackson and Michel.

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Man, I’m getting burned here, and not one of my guys has even taken the field yet.

My opponent started Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Jeff Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Mason Crosby… Only glimpse of hope so far was George Kittle.

He was 5 points ahead in projections, and his team performed 10 points better than projected, with 6 of his 10 starters having played already.

Bottom line: floors won’t help me anymore, I’m looking at ceilings now. Which also brings Michael Carter back in the mix.

Adding my RBs’ opponents, along with their rank against the run:

Justin Jackson (at HOU / #27)
Damien Harris (vs BUF / #26)
Sony Michel (at MIN / #22)
Michael Carter (vs JAC / #21)
Josh Jacobs (vs DEN / #8)

Jackson and Harris (who is expected to play) seem to be locked in.
Jacobs is pretty much out, as he has a low ceiling and a tough matchup.

So the final decision is between Michel and Carter on the flex. Both have excellent matchups. The Jets are playing at home, the Rams are on the road (where Michel didn’t perform great so far).

Carter didn’t get anything going last week, but that was his first game after an injury, and against the Dolphins, who allow the 2nd fewest points to opposing RBs.

I’m actually leaning towards Carter here, though he certainly is a risky start.

Carter’s best games were with someone other than Wilson under center. I’m not confident that his ceiling is higher than Michel this week. Michel gets more consistent opportunities, 20+ touches in each of the last three games. Jets aren’t much of a threat with their receiving corps, Jags should focus on stopping the run and force Wilson to beat them. Vikings have the opposite problem, they have to contend with Ram’s potent passing attack. I think Michel has the better chance for a big game this week.

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Michel had one big game so far. Against the Jags. At home. Which is exactly whom Carter is facing this week.

Carter did okay in the 2 weeks before Wilson got injured. He did see more targets while Wilson was sidelined, but based on opponent stats alone, he has excellent chances to score a TD this week.

Damn this is difficult. I’ll probably keep switching lineups all the way to kickoff, and just start who happens to be lined up when the rosters lock. :sweat_smile:

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Myles Jack is out for the Jags. That won’t help their already weak run defense. I’m rolling with Carter.

Still appreciate the feedback! And don’t hesitate to say “told you so” if my decision costs me the fantasy season. I can take it. :sweat_smile:

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Well… you told me so. :sweat_smile:

Carter wasn’t a terrible decision, scored 13.4 points.
But Michel would have scored 20.0.

Thankfully, it looks like it won’t cost me the season. I’m almost tied with my opponent, he’s leading 123.9 to 123.1. He only has Big Ben coming up, I still have Mahomes, Diontae Johnson and the Miami K. So I’m pretty optimistic to make it to the finals. Mostly thanks to the monster performances from Justin Jackson and Damien Harris, who so far are the RB1 and RB3 for the week. Starting those two was definitely the right call.

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I NEVER say “I told you so” when it comes to player calls. You had two good options, one was just better than the other and it could have easily gone the other way. I can give plenty of examples of where I made the wrong call this week. The thing is that I got a couple more right than wrong, That’s the best we can do and hope it’s enough. Glad it worked out for you! on to Championships.

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