Hello,
I am in a 12 team 5 player keeper 1/2 PPR league. I am have some decisions to make and would like your advice. I have more than 5 keepers in my mind so I would like to try and do a 2 for 1 and upgrade a position. My players that I have are
Lamar Jackson
Ezekiel Elliot
Aaron Jones
Elijah Mitchel (I like as a keeper)
Davante Adams (I like as a keeper)
Chris Godwin
Darnel Mooney
Travis Kelce (I like as a Keeper - maybe last year)
Here are two trades I was thinking about offering since both teams need a QB and Jackson still has upside.
Lamar Jackson & Ezekiel Elliot for Jonathon Taylor
or
Lamar Jackson & Ezekiel Elliot for Cooper Kupp.
Are these trades good or bad trades for both sides? I am content taking a QB in the draft. Dak and a few others will be available with probably 8-10 of the teams already have QBs. I don’t want to just cut good players so I am trying to get creative to improve my team.
I have a hard time imagining Taylor’s owner going for Jackson and Elliot. But if you pull that off, go for it!
I don’t really like Jackson and Elliot for Kupp. Sure, Kupp is coming off one of the most amazing seasons in NFL history, but he is also 28 years old. He is due for some regression at least. Even if he ends up in the top 5 next year, that is what I would call his upside. There’s a floor that drops him into WR2 or lower. Don’t think so? The last WR with more than 145 catches in a season was Michael Thomas (who was 25 years old), who had 40 catches in 7 games in 2020, and didn’t even play last year. The upside was Marvin Harrison from 2002, who had 143 catches, but followed it with 4-thousand yard seasons and double digit TD’s every year. Harrison was 30 at the time, so there is hope for Kupp.
All that said, is Kupp worth the risk? I might take that risk, but I’m not sure the Kupp owner would let him go for two players who seem to be on their downsides.
Another alternative for you: Keep Jackson and Elliot (or Godwin or Mooney), and draft Tyler Huntley later in the draft this year. Keeping Huntley as Jackson’s handcuff seems a good way to go (unless Huntley leaves the Ravens in the offseason).
I agree with a lot of what was opined by the above…however, I don’t necessarily believe that Lamar is on the downside of his career, but do believe that injury hampered one of the 3-4 most talented QBs in the league last year…his is generational talent, and I believe strongly that you would regret trading him, especially with Dobbins and Edwards returning next year to force defenses to play more honestly.
Never trade a high upside player especially one as valuable as a top 5 QB after a down year, you will never get adequate value in return. I say this because Taylor and Kupp owners would balk at this offer, and as you stated yourself, if they are needy at QB there will be adequate QBs left for their taking at draft time.
In summary, hold onto Jackson, and instead perhaps bundle Zeke and another position player for someone you might either covet, or for someone you could use in a second trade for someone you covet…THAT is being creative.
To say that he is on the downside of his career would certainly be an exaggeration. But the 2021 season was an early reminder that running QBs don’t last long.
I don’t expect Lamar to fade immediately. But the Ravens will cut back on his designed runs. They would have done that in 2021 already, but the ridiculous amount of injuries on RB forced them to change their plans.
You saw the same thing with Kyler Murray. In 2020, he got plenty of designed runs, then hurt his shoulder when running into a hard tackle, and that derailed the Cards’ entire season.
They also cut back on his designed runs this year, and his fantasy production was showing. Without his rushing upside, he’s still a QB1, but trending towards the lower end of that tier.
I expect the same to happen to Lamar Jackson. If he retains top 5 upside remains to be seen. I don’t expect him to drop out of the top 10, though, as long as they manage to keep him healthy.
But I do agree, it’s not the best time to trade him. And even if you get an adequate price for him, you still need a replacement, which won’t be easy to acquire.
I added Huntley in one of my leagues, in the last waiver wire round of the season. But he’s a speculative add. Unless he finds a new team that gives him a starter job, he can’t be drafted as a fantasy starter.