Lamar Jackson potential in 2022 and keeper advice

With the Gus Edwards RB back in 2022 will Lamar Jackson be a top 5 QB next year? We can keep 5 players and I have the following:
Lamar Jackson
Ezikiel Elliot
Aaron Jones
Elijah Mitchel (keeper)
Davante Adams (keeper)
Chris Godwin
Travis Kelce

No body is interested in an Elliot trade unless I give him away. Any advice is appreciated.

Good question. The key question to me is: was his injury season a one-off, or a first warning sign for an early regression that hits many rushing QBs?

If he stays healthy, he certainly has the potential to be top 5. Unlike other rushing QBs, Lamar is a competent passer. Plus, his run game is from another planet.

But I also wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him getting injured yet again.

And there is another issue: his contracts ends after next season. The man will want to get paid. And the Ravens gotta ask themselves: is he the QB who can win us a title under the next contract we give him?

Personally, I wouldn’t trade for him, as I see too much risk around him. But if I had him, I wouldn’t trade him away for cheap, either. The potential is certainly there, especially for fantasy.

In your case, would keeping him cost you any draft picks? If yes, which round?
And we’re talking single QB league here, right?

Hi ZakHH, it wouldn’t cost any draft picks to keep players in my league and yes it is a single keeper league. I was thinking about trying to trade either Lamar Jackson or Aaron Jones and then that would give me a 5 man keeper of
either Jackson or Jones
I can’t take a chance on Godwin and his recovery from injury.

If it doesn’t cost you any draft picks, I would consider keeping him, unless you get a really good offer.

Keeping him will take a lot of pressure off your draft. You can focus on RB and WR in the first rounds, and address the QB position a little later.

And you will have to focus on RB and WR, as, to be perfectly honest, none of your other keepers is a surefire starter next season.

Jones and Zeke show signs of age regression, and both have younger RBs breathing down their necks. Mitchell looked good and is definitely a keeper, but it’s not guaranteed that it will still be his backfield in 2022.

As for Adams, you can only hope that he gets franchise tagged and Rodgers stays in Green Bay. Both is not unlikely, but also not guaranteed. If Adams and/or Rodgers leave Green Bay, Adams’ fantasy value will tank.

And Travis Kelce will be 33 next season. He does not show any signs of regression yet, so of course he is a keeper. But the question remains how much longer he can extend his overall-TE1 subscription.

As for Godwin - I wouldn’t write him off. He’s got great skills and is just about to enter the prime age bracket for WRs. Yes, that injury is a concern, and we don’t know where he will play in 2022, and who will throw him the ball. But I am actually targeting him in my leagues, as he’s usually available for cheap.

I would probably try to trade Zeke and Aaron Jones away. Neither has a big future ahead of him, so if you can get quality picks or a younger RB for them, I would pull the trigger.

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I had Lamar in a redraft league this year, and what I saw from him worried me. While he is starting to show some progress in his passing game, the injuries scared me away from considering him in the future, without at least having Tyler Huntley handcuffed to him. Normally, I don’t like to handcuff QB’s, but Lamar’s upside makes it worthwhile, and Huntley showed he can at least give you a soft landing if Lamar gets hurt.

If your rookie draft allows you to grab veterans (mine does), then consider grabbing Huntley with a mid-round pick if you keep Lamar. Granted, this will mean keeping 3 QB’s on your roster, or going out and grabbing a QB during the Ravens bye week. But Lamar’s upside wins weeks against most opposing QB’s.

Hypothetically, if Lamar bombs in '22, the Ravens don’t bring him back in '23. But they might decide to run with Huntley, in which case you are set for '23 also, assuming Huntley doesn’t bomb too. But that is the risk I would be willing to take, because both QB’s bring such solid rushing upside that wins games in fantasy…