Who wins trade in 10 team PPR 12 person keeper/dynasty league
Team A gets:
Devante Adams
Travis Kelce
Mike Thomas
Pick 11
Team B gets
Ceedee Lamb
Caff
Schultz
Pick 38
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Somebody actually has Mike Thomas? This league must have some seriously deep rosters.
Even with that said, this trade is pretty even. Thomas and pick 38 are equally worthless.
That leaves you with Adams and Lamb, with Adams getting the slight edge.
Then Kelce and Schultz, with Kelce having a significant edge, albeit a bit more questionable without Tyreek Hill around.
Finally, the 11th pick versus CMC, who has played a total of 10 games in the last 2 seasons. If you can draft a player who can stay on the field, you suddenly win this one easily. But the 11th pick can be tough in a rookie draft.
I give Team A the victory on this one. Obviously, if CMC can stay healthy, even if they cut his touches some, Team B could win here. Or if Team A totally blows the draft pick, again Team B could win here. But these are two big “ifs”.
Let’s look at the players individually, and also at their age by the end of the year:
Davante Adams (30): He’s in a new team environment. I don’t have huge concerns about him, and see Derek Carr as a generally underrated QB. But Carr’s still no Aaron Rodgers, and the competition for targets will be stiffer for Adams. And Adams is getting older. If he struggles in his first year in Vegas, he may never recover. He’s a risky asset.
Travis Kelce (33): The dominant TE1 in recent years. Who’s now 32 years old. The age cliff will come. Not necessarily this year, but it will come. He’s a player I would not pursue in dynasty formats.
Mike Thomas: Hang on, are we talking Mike Thomas, the completely fantasy-irrelevant Bengals depth piece here? Or Michael Thomas, the highly talented drama queen from New Orleans?
CeeDee Lamb (23): With Cooper out of town, all signs point towards elite status for Lamb. But so they did last year, and he didn’t deliver. A risky asset with a lot of upside, but little track record so far.
Christian McCaffrey (26): Yes, he’s been injured a ton. And maybe he’ll miss most of the season yet again. Or maybe he won’t, because while he was injured a lot, none of the injuries were super scary. Risky asset with a ton of upside. If he manages to stay healthy for once, he’s in the RB1 conversation.
Dalton Schultz (26): With Blake Jarwin out of town, Schultz is the unquestioned TE1 for Dallas. Which last year resulted in him finishing as the TE#3. I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t be able to repeat that performance. And age-wise, he’s just about to enter his prime. He might be a fantasy asset for years to come.
Conclusion:
I like Team B better here. All players carry their individual risks (maybe with the exception of Schultz), but the players Team B gets are a lot younger.
The 11th pick makes it a pretty balanced trade, but I’d still lean towards favoring Team B. It could still make sense for Team A, though, if they are in win-now mode. Especially if Mike Thomas turns out to be Michael Thomas.
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Good question. If it is the New Orleans drama queen, then it correlates closer to CMC, in that both are unreliable. In that case, Team A easily wins this trade, unless the 11th pick is a bust.
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Not necessarily. Going by the today’s edition of the Dynasty Trade Value Chart, we have:
Team A:
Davante Adams = 63
Travis Kelce = 38
Michael Thomas = 24
1.11 = 26
Total: 151
Team B:
CeeDee Lamb = 70
CMC = 69
Dalton Schultz = 30
4.02 = 1
Total: 170
Personally, I would rank CeeDee and CMC a little lower. But even then, it would still be a balanced trade.
For Team A, it would only make sense if they are in win-now mode, as all players they are acquiring are pretty close to the age cliff.
But even then, there still is a chance that the trio CeeDee + CMC + Schultz will make more points this season than the trio Davante + Kelce + Michael Thomas (NO).
I still like Team B better.
Firstly, CMC is HUGELY overrated on that chart! I wouldn’t put that kind of value on a guy with 10 games played over 2 years! That’s obscene! He is worth more in the Michael Thomas range, around 24ish. Even if you give CMC 30, that still makes Team A the winner.
If Carolina wakes up and cuts CMC’s workload, then he could have better value, although not an RB1.
In my humble opinion, one of the biggest mistakes you can make in fantasy football is to invest into yesteryear’s performance. Most oftenly, that happens by overpaying for an ageing elite player. He’s been great for 3 straight seasons, so you pay top dollar to get him, assuming he will keep playing on that level.
And then he doesn’t.
But the opposite can also happen. An injury history like CMC’s is scary, absolutely. If he keeps playing as little as he did in the last 2 years, then yeah, he hardly carries any fantasy value.
But whenever he played, he scored in a tier of his own. And as I said before, none of his injuries were super scary. So the upside is massive. If he manages to stay healthy for a season, he’s a league winner.
Though I do agree, if they want to keep him healthy, they will have to manage his workload better. Which will cut away some of his fantasy upside. But even if you cut 20% away, he’s still firmly in the top 3 conversation.
A trade value of 69 seems a bit high, as you need to factor the risk in. But 24? That would put him below players like Miles Sanders, Zeke Elliott or Kareem Hunt. That’s too little for a player who put up an average 25 FFP in the 7 games he’s been able to shoulder a full workload.
Would I trade away a player like D’Andre Swift or Javonte Williams to get CMC? Certainly not. But if you would trade me CMC in exchange for a player like Zeke, Hunt or Chase Edmonds, I’d get up in the middle of the night to accept that trade.
The sweet spot for me is in the Gibson / Ekeler / Mixon range. Players who carry a lot of value, but aren’t free of risk and doubt, either. If I can get CMC in exchange for one of them, I’d consider trading for him. That’s where I see his trade value - in the 55-60 range.
And so I’d still regard the trade as balanced, even if it does involve Michael Thomas.
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While you are right about the general consensus on CMC, it is wrong. He is like the fantasy football version of the tulip mania:
Based on the same dynasty trade value charts, 69 points for CMC is worth a top 3 pick PLUS an early 2nd round pick at least. That’s insane! You’re going to tell me he is worth Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker plus an early 2nd round pick? Sign me up for that deal! Even at your low end value of 55, we are still seeing a top 3 pick in value, which I would still take over CMC. Give me a young stud RB over the RB whose tread is worn off the tires.
I would argue that Gibson/Ekeler/Mixon are slightly overvalued, but not to the extent CMC is.
If I had to use existing players for value, I’d put CMC somewhere in the sweet spot between Michael Carter and Zeke, at about 31.5. CMC comes with a similar skill set to Carter, but he doesn’t have Carter’s youth. But I would put CMC above Zeke, whose tires are also looking a little threadbare. But even at 31.5, that puts CMC between a top 12 pick and an early 2nd round pick.
Having said all that, this is where I put his value. Obviously, the trade market views him differently. If CMC were a stock, I would rate him a “SELL”.