I am in a 1 qb 12 man full ppr dynasty league. Just got offered 1.5 and 1.8 for my Tee Higgins. I have aj brown Justin Jefferson Chris Godwin courtland Sutton. I like higgins but that’s to good to pass up right?
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I would take that all day! If you want to, you can easily grab a top rookie WR with one or both of those picks, or stock up elsewhere. Enjoy!
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I thought this was a no-brainer, but it’s indeed a tad trickier than I initially thought.
If you expect Hall and Walker to get drafted within the first 4 picks, the 1.05 would give you one of Drake London, Treylon Burks or Jameson Williams. Chris Olave would be an alternative, in case London and Burks are gone and you don’t like Williams’ situation.
The 1.08 would probably give you one of Garrett Wilson, Skyy Moore or Jahan Dotson.
It’s a good trade, but not a must-accept. Tee Higgins is higher in most rankings than any of these rookies. If your team is a contender this year, you may want to keep the better player.
In general, the 2 picks carry more dynasty value there, and there is every chance (but no guarantee) that one of these rookies will break out pretty early - except for Williams, who may miss a good chunk of the season, if not all of it.
But you will replace a top player with 2 development projects.
As I said - if you see yourself as a contender, you may want to keep Higgins.
If your focus is more on the years to come, accept the trade and load up on talent.
Good luck!
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I agree with Zak, if your a contender then keep Higgins. But 1.05 & 1.08 are tough to pass up. With having Godwin he will likely be out the 1st half of the season (due to ACL) and if you draft Williams then your down 2 WR’s for the first half of the season. 1.05 you might get a WR that starts right away but at 1.08 your looking at Olave, Watson, or Moore.
All depends if your a contender or not. If you need to rebuild then get the 1.05 & 1.08.
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I have meanwhile finished my initial projections for 2022:
Tee Higgins: WR#11
Your other WRs:
Justin Jefferson: WR#3
A.J Brown: WR#21
Chris Godwin: WR#16 if fully healthy, WR#48 if he misses 5 games
Courtland Sutton: WR#25 (DEN receiver corps is difficult to project)
The rookies:
Treylon Burks: WR#32
Drake London: WR#34
Jameson Williams: not ranked
Chris Olave: WR#62 (assuming Michael Thomas will be back)
Garrett Wilson: WR#53
Skyy Moore: WR#50
Jahan Dotson: WR#76
Now, with rookies, there is always a chance that one of them will break out early. But with making a trade, you risk giving up a potential top 10 WR and get back 2 FLEX players or worse.
Tee Higgins is only 23 years old and plays in a highly dynamic offense that should remain a playoff candidate for years to come.
None of that can be said for any of the rookies you’d get with the 2 picks. With the exception of Skyy Moore, we don’t know who the QB will be in 2023 for any of those rookies.
I say: keep Higgins. Even if you are not a contender this year. Higgins’ biggest risk is that they won’t give him a new contract after the 2023 season. That still makes him the safest (i.e., least risky) player of the entire bunch.
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Just curious on your projections, but where do you have Jarvis Landry? Do you see him as the Saints true WR2, instead of Olave? And how would you project them if Thomas doesn’t come back 100%, or misses more time with another injury?
By the way, I disagree with your Garrett Wilson projection. He and Elijah Moore will be neck and neck in an offense that may feature more passing than you might expect, even with Breece Hall added. The Jets defense still has to prove it can stop somebody.
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The Saints WR corps is difficult to project at the moment, as we don’t know the role Michael Thomas will play. Right now, I have MT and Olave as 1A and 1B, with Landry behind them (but not far). As a result, Thomas is WR#61, Olave WR#62 and Landry WR#70.
That is not how they will come out in the end, though. But we will need more information before this receiver corps can be ranked properly.
Good point. If Thomas wouldn’t play at all, Olave could be a mid-range WR2. Best-case scenario I can see is WR#12, which would make him a borderline WR1.
Even if that doesn’t happen this season, Olave is an intriguing future prospect. I’d draft him over some other rookie WRs who are commonly ranked higher. But in the context of the discussed trade, keep in mind that Olave’s best-case scenario is to reach the point Tee Higgins is already at. If Higgins was is in his late 20ies, I’d consider giving him up for Olave. But he’s only a year older than Olave, that’s why I’d rather keep the proven asset.
We agree on the premise, but disagree on the result.
I have Wilson and Moore as WR#53 and WR#54. I have the Jets down for +15% passing yards, a higher ADOT and a higher completion rate. Overall, they are the #16 passing offense in my book.
Yet still, I consider them fantasy poison, simply because there are way too many mouths to feed. This could change if Zach Wilson develops a preferred target. But right now, I have to split up their passing volume between no less than 8 different pass catchers: Breece Hall, Michael Carter, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin.
Remember how surprised we were that the 2021 Cowboys produced only 1 elite pass catcher in Dalton Schultz. And they were a top 3 passing offense. Yet 7 mouths to feed led to most of their pass catchers staying below expectations.
I think the Jets will play a solid season, but I’m not sure if I want any of their players on my fantasy roster this year. I’ll post a thread shortly where I’ll even make a case to draft Ken Walker over Breece Hall in dynasty rookie drafts.
You do realize the three you named are a 100% improvement over the Saints WR’s last season? If the Saints decide to air it out, they are in a much better position to do so, and the Saints WR1 can easily enter the overall WR1 conversation?
You forgot Denzell Mims? 
Seriously though, I expect Wilson and Moore to easily take 20% of the target share, with one of them possibly going as high as 30% if Wilson gets attached. The rest will divvy up what’s leftover, but the top two should get close to 50% of the targets, although Hall or Carter could sneak into the conversation for target share. I might lean towards Carter as the third down specialist.
If there is a clear Saints WR1, yes. Right now, there isn’t. As for the Saints offense, I dialed them up 10% on passing and kept rushing unchanged. Might dial them back a little on overall rushing volume and add some more to passing, though. Right now, I have Kamara projected with a 6-game ban, but didn’t take into account how that might affect the Saints’ overall rushing volume.
However, I don’t expect the Saints’ passing offense to become more efficient with the absence of a prominent rushing threat, so I wouldn’t expect gigantic strides here.
So did the Jets. 
20% target share each is exactly what I have Wilson and Moore down for. One of them will certainly have more - maybe even both of them. Carter will be the back for passing downs, but Hall is too good as a pass catcher to not utilize him through the air at all. With all the development Zach Wislon is showing, he’s still a sophomore and will have to dump the ball off rather often. Which means both Hall and at least one TE will also see a healthy share of targets.
If the Jets develop a clear #1 target, that role would spell fantasy goodness. But I’m not comfortable projecting one. I do expect 1-2 players to drop out of the rotation (my money is on Corey Davis and C.J. Uzomah), but that would still leave 6 pass catchers in a team that, while improved, will not sport a top 10 passing offense.
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No, my point is that ANY of the top 3 WR’s the Saints have now are better than ANY of the WR’s the Saints had last season. It doesn’t matter which one wins.
That is a question for another post. If you had to pick a team that doesn’t seem like a top 10 passing offense, but could surprise, which teams are likely candidates? The Jets would be one potential answer, although I expect Hall and Carter to steal some significant touches.
True, and that is a case for bumping up the Saints’ passing offense some more. But until we know who will be the #1 target there, that won’t change the general situation. Even if I just randomly assign 5,000 team passing yards to them, none of their WRs emerges beyond WR40 in my rankings.
The Jets have the potential of surprising us, but that’s not something I can work into my projections.
Because one thing is 100% guaranteed: we will not have more than 10 top-ten passing offenses in 2022.
In other words: if I’d move the Jets into top-ten territory I would have to move another team out of there.
I have them down for 617 passing attempts, that’s #12 in the league. Last year, Zach Wilson had a lousy 55.6% completion rate, and I bumped that up quite a bit to 61.6% in 2022. Which means he’d complete 380 passes. Even if he can maintain his 11.0 yards per completion ratio (and more completions usually mean shorter passes), that would translate into 4,180 passing yards.
To put things in perspective, the 2021 Bills had 4,280 passing yards
My 2022 top 10 teams in terms of passing yards are:
TB
LAC
DAL
LV
LAR
KC
CIN
BUF
GB
ARI
In the hunt are teams like MIN, SF, NE, PIT, MIA and DEN. That’s the range where I can also see the Jets. I can see Green Bay or Arizona dropping out of the top 10, but the Jets would have to beat all in-the-hunt teams in order to make it into the top 10. Not impossible, but a bit too optimistic for me to project it.
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Here is why a team will fall out: Injuries, or new coach. There are only two new coaches in that group: Tampa and Vegas. And Tampa’s coach is a former defensive coordinator.
As for injuries, hard to predict those. But I’d say it’s safe to assume injuries will knock at least one, if not several, teams from top 10.
The guy who’s trading for Higgins must be ready to win. If you think you are ready to win, you probably need Higgins to beat him. 
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Higgins is an easy choice for me with the bird in the hand over the two in the bush logic. He is your #2, a top WR and still a kid.
This was a bad draft. IMO, there are potential VG WRs but none with elite potential. You already have what your picks would aspire to.
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I agree the more I look at it. Tee Higgins could be the next Keenan Allen if he has the staying power.
Ya never know but with all else in his favor he is in a great situation in Cinci.