In this thread, I will look at players that I have significantly above or below ECR, based on PPR scoring. For ECR, I selected the top 20 experts from 2021, with a recency of max. 14 days.
A bad start for this thread, all player ranks look okay.
DeAndre Hopkins will probably not reach his rank of WR#39, I have him lower. But you cannot really rank him by his season total, as in the 11 games after his suspension, he will play a greater role than his rank suggests. However, with Hollywood Brown in town, I would not expect D-Hop to put up WR1 numbers in every game he plays.
Kyle Pitts is slightly overrated (TE#3), I have him at TE#6 this season. I wouldn’t call that a bust, but he isn’t worth being reached for in the early rounds of redraft leagues. He does remain a top dynasty asset, though.
Rashod Bateman (WR#32) is underrated. Yes, the Ravens are a run-first team with one of the lowest passing volumes in the league. But so were the 2021 Seahawks, and they were still the only team to produce two top-15 WRs. Bateman and Mark Andrews can split almost the entire passing volume up between them. Bateman is my WR#19, Andrews is my TE#1.
Nothing to see here. But keep an eye on Gabriel Davis’ ADP in your league. I have him at WR#26. In some leagues, he’s drafted even earlier, in other leagues he’s still being slept on. Don’t sleep on him, but don’t overdraft him, either.
D.J. Moore will need a CMC injury to deliver on his WR#14 rank. I have him at WR#22 if CMC plays all 17 games. CMC himself checks in at RB#4, though the top tier has 4 players extremely close in terms of projected points.
Justin Fields is overrated at QB#16. I see no reason to believe that the team totals will be a lot better than in 2021, which would make Fields the QB#27, despite his rushing upside. I am also slightly lower on Darnell Mooney, and have him at WR#30, compared to his WR#23 ECR.
Joe Burrow looks a bit overrated. Do we really expect the Bengals’ passing offense to be better still than they were in 2021? I see them improving only marginally, if at all, which would make Burrow the QB#11, compared to his QB#7 ECR.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are fine, though. The Bengals will be one of 2 teams to produce two fantasy WR1s this year.
It’s still unclear how many games Deshaun Watson will be allowed to play this year. The ECR ranks look okay to me for the moment.
I do not see any progression in the team totals for the Cowboys, compared to 2021. Yet still, I find most of their players underrated. Last year, despite being a top 3 passing offense, they did not produce any top fantasy WRs, and that’s probably what makes people overly cautious now.
However, the 2022 Cowboys have a lot less mouths to feed on the roster. So if they can keep the team volume alive, all skill position players should be better than their ECR.
The biggest steal on their roster is rookie Jalen Tolbert. His ECR is currently WR#69, behind Michael Gallup, who’s expected to miss a significant portion of the season. I have Tolbert at WR#31, making him one of the biggest steals in redraft leagues this year.
CeeDee Lamb is also underrated. I have him at WR#3, compared to his #6 ECR. Lamb will finally enjoy a full season as the undisputed alpha target on the team. He may have burned you before, but he will finally deliver this year.
Dalton Schultz is also set for another very strong season, I have him at TE#4.
Russell Wilson believers will hate me now, but I can’t help it: he’s overrated in fantasy. I do expect the Broncos passing game to be a ton better with him under center. But with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon in the backfield, I don’t see Russell putting up big rushing numbers. He’s my QB#16, compared to his #10 ECR.
Nothing to see here, I have all players close to their ECR. Including Amon-Ra St. Brown at WR#25, because Jameson Williams will play only a few games this year, if any at all. Which is why I have him outside the top 100, while his ECR is #67.
Green Bay Packers
Something is odd here when looking at ECR. Aaron Rodgers is QB#13, I have him 2 spots higher. But all Green Bay pass catchers are ranked well outside the higher tiers.
If we expect Aaron Rodgers to do well, then somebody will have to catch those passes. Because whatever Rodgers is taking, it will not turn him into a new Lamar Jackson in his age 39 season.
However, I do expect him to pass the ball around, so it is okay to keep expectations tempered for all Green Bay WRs. Lazard is still underrated at an ECR of WR#42, I have him at WR#30. And Robert Tonyan could be a top 10 TE once more - if he is healthy for the season. Right now, that’s not granted, so monitor his status.
With rookie John Metchie missing the season, Brandin Cooks could be in for another completely unspectacular top fantasy season. I have him at WR#14, compared to his #19 ECR.
TE Brevin Jordan could be the top sleeper on that position. I have him at TE#14, compared to his #26 ECR.
WR Nico Collins will also outperform his ECR of WR#66, I have him at #49.
And rookie RB Dameon Pierce can do better than his ECR of RB#38. I have him at #31, but keep in mind it’s not a given that he will lead that backfield.
Don’t mistake all these underrated players for a sign that Davis Mills will be a great fantasy asset, though. His completion rate was spectacular for a rookie last year, but his depth was not. He is a pocket passer who will not generate a lot of yards. His ECR of QB#29 is completely correct.
Another team where QB and WR rankings don’t add up. Matt Ryan’s ECR is QB#18, and that looks exactly right. That translates into roughly 4,000 yards and 28 TDs.
But the only pass catcher with a notable rank is the WR#12? Ryan will complete a ton of passes, but nobody is going to catch them? Not gonna happen.
2 players are massively underrated here:
Michael Pittman, said WR#12 in ECR. He will be the alpha receiver, but that role will elevate him to WR#4 in my rankings.
And RB Nyheim Hines. The Colts plan to involve him more into the passing game, as a pass catcher out of the backfield. And even a modest increase in targets elevates him to RB#24 in my rankings (keep in mind: PPR). His ECR is RB#40. He’s a total steal. And no, I did not fade Jonathan Taylor. He’s my RB#2, a whooping 0.2 points behind my favorite for the RB#1 spot.
Rookie Alec Pierce should also be able to outperform his ECR of WR#74, I have him at #58.
Another QB-WR mismatch, but this time, it’s in the other direction. Trevor Lawrence’s ECR is QB#19, so about the same as Matt Ryan’s (see above). And all pass catchers are ranked pretty low. So they must be underrated, right?
Wrong. Why? Simply: because unlike in Indy, we have a ton of them in Jacksonville.
A pass-catching specialist in the backfield (Travis Etienne), two TEs (Dan Arnold, Evan Engram) and 4 WRs (Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, Laviska Shenault) will all demand targets.
As a result, even Christian Kirk as the expected top target will struggle to reach his ECR of WR#40.
Stay away from all Jaguars pass catchers this year, with the exception of Travis Etienne. He is the only one whom I can see marginally outperforming his ECR of RB#18.
Kansas City Chiefs
I said about the 2021 Cowboys that they were a top 3 passing offense that produced not a single top fantasy WR.
The Chiefs will be in 2022 what the Cowboys were in 2021. Stay away from all their players not named Travis Kelce or Patrick Mahomes. Even Mahomes I have a tad lower (QB#5) than his ECR (QB#3).
Las Vegas Raiders
I am slightly lower on Davante Adams than the experts. I have him at WR#8, compared to his #5 ECR. But overall, the Raiders players look properly ranked.
Los Angeles Chargers
I expect the 2022 Chargers to be the best passing offense of the league. So do the experts, it seems, because their players are properly ranked. Herbert is my favorite for the QB#1 crown this year, I have him slightly ahead of Josh Allen.
Keenan Allen could finish a tad lower than his ECR (WR#9). I have him at #13, unless he can claim a larger volume share than he did in 2021.
Josh Palmer seems to be in the firm lead for the WR3 position, which will make him more valuable than his ECR of WR#75. I have him at #50.
Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers is overrated. His ECR is RB#20, I have him at #25. The Rams don’t run the ball that often, and he has very little pass catching upside.
Kupp will regress in 2022. The trick is, he has a huge regression treshold before losing the WR#1 crown. I say he’ll keep, though the race will be a lot closer in 2022.
TE Tyler Higbee looks underrated. With the same volume share as in 2021, I have him at TE#12, compared to his #18 ECR.
No, I don’t see the Fins’ passing offense to improve a lot. Maybe a few more team yards, but that’s it.
No, I don’t see Tua making big strides as a passer. His ECR of QB#17 looks absolutely right to me.
And yet, both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are underrated.
ECR: Hill #10, Waddle #16
My WR rank: Hill #6, Waddle #10.
The 2022 Dolphins are the second team (along with the Bengals) to produce two fantasy WR1s, despite being only a mediocre passing offense.
Keep in mind: so did the 2021 Seahawks, and they had the lowest passing volume in the league. But it was almost entirely distributed between 2 pass catchers. That’s what I see for Miami this year.
Stay away from their backfield, though.
They plan to pass the ball more in 2021. So why are we that high on Dalvin Cook then? Do we really expect him to keep his rushing share AND see more targets AND stay healthy, which he couldn’t do with his old volume already?
His ECR is RB#5, my ranking is RB#10.
Justin Jefferson is the best bet to de-throne Cooper Kupp this year. I ‘only’ have him as WR#2 overall, but by a difference of just 8 points.
EDIT: I forgot to mention the other 2 WRs in my initial post.
Adam Thielen is 32 when the season kicks off. His last 1000+ yard season dates back to 2018. Ever since, he’s been regressing. His ECR is WR#33, and even if he can repeat his 10 TDs from 2021, I only have him at WR#40.
The Vikings WR to draft outside round 1 is KJ Osborn. Even after his 2021 breakout, he is still being ignored by analysts and fantasy managers alike. His ECR is WR#77, his ADP is even lower on some platforms. I have him as WR#44, even with Thielen projected to be fully healthy. As soon as Thielen gets injured, Osborn is a fantasy WR2. He’s among the best value picks for WRs, and my gut says he will outscore Thielen this year.
Don’t waste a mid-round pick on Thielen when you can get a better Vikings WR several rounds later.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson is underrated His ECR is RB#37, I have him at #28.
The rest of the team is ranked properly. Which makes the 2022 New England Patriots a fantastic team to stay away from in fantasy.
New Orleans Saints
This will be a different Saints team than in recent years. They will pass a lot more, and run a lot less.
That’s no problem for Alvin Kamara, though. If anything, he will benefit from it. If he can dodge a suspension, I have him at RB#8, compared to his ECR of #12. Keep in mind that the suspension isn’t off the table yet. His hearing was only postponed, not cancelled.
Jameis Winston is underrated at QB#20. He never finished a full season he played at less than QB#14. I have him at #13 this year, he is one of the few potential QB steals.
Chris Olave is brutally underrated. Even if Michael Thomas delivers on his ECR of WR#25 (and I think he will), there still is a ton of volume unclaimed in New Orleans. And I see nobody else than Olave to claim it. I have him at WR#17. Which makes him a gigantic steal, compared to his ECR of WR#46, even if he and Thomas would swap places in my projection.
New York Giants
If any analyst tells you Saquon Barkley is underrated at ECR RB#11, then don’t listen to them.
I gave the 2022 Giants more team passing yards. And more team passing TDs. And more team rushing yards And more team rushing TDs.
And I gave Saquon a 65% share on the ground, and a 15% share through the air.
He’s RB#12 in my ranking, and I feel that may be too high already.
There is no player on this roster that promises value compared to their ECR. Not a single one.
New York Jets
There is no player on this roster that promises value compared to their ECR. Not a single one. Yes, that was copy & paste. Intentionally.
So I did buy into the TC talk that Jalen Hurts is showing progress as a passer, and bumped up the team passing totals.
Hurts is still only my QB#7 (ECR #5).
A.J. Brown is still only my WR#16 (ECR #11).
And both ranks are better than in my July rankings. Hurts will have to improve a ton to elevate himself and AJB beyond their ECR.
I’m still very low on Miles Sanders, but so are the experts (ECR RB#29 vs. my #32). Kenny Gainwell has some upside, in case he really gets more volume, but I still wouldn’t draft him a lot higher than his ECR of RB#46.
Najee Harris is still my favorite for the RB#1 crown. But it’s gotten awfully close against Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, who are both within 3 fantasy points of Najee.
Diontae Johnson could be able to outperform his WR#15 ECR, I currently have him at #10.
Either Chase Claypool (ECR WR#49) or George Pickens (#65) will outperform their ECR, too.
For Pat Freiermuth, I’m a tad lower than his TE#11 ECR, I have him at #13.
The one player who could be an absolute steal on this roster is… (drumroll)… Mitch Trubisky. Of course only if he can keep the job throughout the season, and that’s not a given.
But if he can, I have him at QB#17. Compared to his #31, that would make him the biggest QB steal in fantasy this year. I don’t expect him to throw nearly as much as Big Ben, who had the most passing attempts in 2020, and the 4th most in 2021. I also don’t see him getting close to Big Ben’s completion rate, that was #1 in 2020 and #6 in 2021.
But Trubisky will definitely get more yards per completion, because Big Ben was dead last in that category. Trubisky could easily get more yards out of less passes, while still being well below average in terms of accuracy and depth. Plus, he has at least some rushing upside.
Trubisky is an intriguing QB3 in superflex formats, where it won’t kill your season if he does lose the job at some point.
San Francisco 49ers
I won’t even try to decipher the mess that is the Niners’ backfield. I wouldn’t buy Elijah Mitchell at his RB#23 ECR, though.
Trey Lance is an unknown, and his ECR of QB#11 looks alright to me.
Deebo Samuel is overrated, though. His rushing yards and TDs will be mostly gone, if not entirely. And he could even lose some of his passing volume to Brandon Aiyuk.
I have ranked Kittle (TE#5) and Aiyuk (WR#41) exactly at their ECR. If I would rank Deebo at his WR#7 ECR as well, then Lance would have to finish a top 5 QB. That seems too optimistic.
Deebo is only my WR#18. Anybody who drafts him at his #7 ECR is in for a disappointing season.
No value to be found here. Ken Walker has a chance to outperform his ECR (RB#35) if Penny struggles. At the same time, Penny could outperform his (RB#33) if he stays healthy all season and gets the RB1a role.
Both are properly ranked for the moment. If I was to pick one, I’d take Walker, though. We all know Penny’s medical history.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year, Brady finished the season as the QB#1 in fantasy. This year, his ECR is QB#8.
I cannot rule out that he finally starts regressing. But if he doesn’t, he will easily outperform his ECR and finish the season as QB#3.
I have both Fournette and Rachaad White above their ECR.
Fournette: ECR RB#10 vs. my RB#6.
White: ECR RB#50 vs. my RB#30.
Yes, the Bucs have one of the lowest rushing volumes in the league. But at least, their QB doesn’t soak up any of it.
I am lower on all 4 Bucs WRs, though.
Mike Evans: ECR WR#8 / me #11
Chris Godwin; ECR #31 / me #42
Russell Gage; ECR #48 / me #61
Julio Jones: ECR #57 / me #76
Even a top 3 passing offense like the Bucs cannot entertain that many pass catchers. Keep in mind they still have 2 TEs and 2 pass catching RBs. See the 2021 Cowboys as a reference - it won’t work.
Derrick Henry is undervalued at ECR RB#6 - if he stays healthy. If he can sustain his monster 85% volume share in this top 3 rushing offense throughout 17 games, he will be the RB#1, and it won’t even be close. But as a matter of fact, he couldn’t last year. So either the Titans will dial back on his volume, or his season will be cut short again. I have him as #3 in a top-3 tier that is currently too close to call.
Either Robert Woods (ECR WR#45) or Treylon Burks (#43) will be undervalued, though not by a lot. My money is on Burks, whom I have at WR#36.
Antonio Gibson is very overrated. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson in round 3 and bent over backwards to bring J.D. McKissic back.
I have both Robinson (ECR RB#55) and McKissic (#43 in PPR) very close to their ECR. But that doesn’t leave any room for Gibson to deliver on his RB#24 ECR. I have him at #35.
Same on the passing side, where I have Logan Thomas (ECR TE#25), Jahan Dotson (WR#61) and Curtis Samuel (WR#83) ranked close to their ECR.
But then there is no volume left for Terry McLaurin. He is my WR#38, which makes him a huge bust compared to his WR#18 ECR.
The only potential value I see on this roster is Brian Robinson, in case he completely takes over the backfield from Gibson. But even that wouldn’t make him a fantasy RB2 .Stay away from the 2022 Commanders.