Need help with who to keep

10 team half PPR keeper league. Can keep 3 players.

I’m keeping Jonathan Taylor obviously. The other 3 I’m having trouble figuring out who I want to keep

So need 2 of these 3
Joe mixon
Ceedee lamb
Aaron Jones

Jones is intriguing this year but, Mixon and Lamb have no competition for touches on good teams. Pretty easy choice for me.

That was my thought too. It was more so between lamb and Jones is what I’m really having a tough time with. But Jones has Dillion behind him take half the snaps and lamb is gonna be WR1 so kinda hard not to keep lamb

CeeDee is a lock. He was bad for fantasy last year because the 2021 Cowboys had a lot of pass catchers. In 2022, they hardly have any. WR#2 in my projection.

Jones and Mixon are in the same tier. In half PPR, I’d probably prefer Mixon, but it’s a close call.

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Bad for fantasy last year? He was the WR14 in standard and the WR19 in PPR–that’s already a WR#2. He should be a low-end WR#1 this year.

Oh, and OP, keep Lamb and Mixon.

WR#2 is the second best WR to me. WR2 suggests the WR#13-WR#24 range.

Lamb is the second best WR in my 2022 projections.

And he was bad for fantasy in 2021 as he was drafted a lot higher than WR#19… People expected him to be a WR1 last year already. He wasn’t because there were too many mouths to feed in Dallas. That’s not a problem any longer.

Ok, people notate differently. I would not have assumed you meant the 2nd-best WR overall, because that seems awfully lofty as an expectation, but ok.

Well, he was WR14 in standard scoring, which was 2 slots and 14 points away from a WR1, so it’s not like he busted or anything.

I’ll admit, I was surprised myself when I looked at my first full projection table. I should also add that Lamb, Jefferson and a 3rd player are all within 7 points of each other. That’s one TD negated by a penalty, so well within the margin of error.

My projection for Dallas is based on roughly the same team production as last year. Minor regression on team passing yards and TDs, but not a lot.

Dallas’ 2021 problem (for fantasy purposes) was that they had 6 players who claimed more than 10% of the passing volume in the games they played, and a 7th player (Pollard) wasn’t far behind. That’s too many pass catchers, even for a high volume offense (Dallas ranked #3 in the league in completed passes and passing TDs, and #2 in passing yards).

As a result, Lamb saw only 19.7% of the targets only 15.9% of the TDs during the 16 games he played. Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz scored more TDs (8) than him, Cedrick Wilson scored as many (6) in less games.

In 2022, we only have 5 meaningful pass catchers: Lamb, Schultz, Tolbert, Zeke and (to a slightly lesser extent) Pollard. Maybe also Gallup, when (if) he returns.

That will leave a higher volume share for CeeDee. I have him down for 25% of the targets this year, and especially for twice as many TDs. The resulting volume lands him in the #2-4 range among WRs.

Btw, that 3rd player I mentioned in that #2-4 range is Michael Pittman. Another guy not many expect to end up that high. But he’s in a perfect situation with an improvement on QB (though not a huge one) and hardly any competition for targets on the roster. I’m also super high on Nyheim Hines for that reason, whom I have as RB#23 in PPR, without fading Jonathan Taylor.

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You left out the Cowboys’ WR2 (at least until Gallup returns)–Noah Brown.

Ah, if I got a dollar for every 3rd-string guy being talked up in TC…

I just realized I still have James Washington’s share in my table. Brown can have those 59 targets. That would double his career record so far (6th year in the league) and make him the WR#91 in full PPR this season.

On the year? That’s what you thought the WR2 of the Cowboys would get–59 targets? No wonder you have Lamb as the 2nd overall WR. Just out of curiosity, what do you have projected for his targets–200 or so?

You guys with your spreadsheets and your decimal points in preseason are all so adorable.

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No, but I expect neither James Washington nor Noah Brown to be the WR2 of the Cowboys. Gallup is the WR2, only question is how many games he can play.

163 targets. That’s not outrageously high for a guy in the top 10 range. Or do you expect Lamb to drop out of that range as well?

Keep laughing all you want. I still remember when last year you had even nicer words for me projecting Austin Ekeler as RB#5 in PPR. Turns out even I was too low on him.

Sadly, I accidentally overwrote my 2021 masterfile when transitioning to the new season, so all I have left are my July rankings, without any team breakdowns and without ECR/ADP. But even that list looks pretty okay when compared to the actual season results. Sure, I missed a few players: Saw neither Kupp nor Deebo coming.

But almost all players that I was much higher on than ECR hit.

Justin Herbert as QB#1 - his ECR was closer to 10, I think
Tom Brady as QB#3, he was also drafted around 10.
Kirk Cousins as QB#12, he was drafted lower.
Ditto for Derek Carr, whom I had at QB#15.

JT as RB#2 - ECR was around RB#8, IIRC.
Ekeler as RB#5, I think he was outside the top 10.
Mixon as RB#6, he was drafted well outside the top 10.
Damien Harris as RB#10, I think his ECR was easily 20 spots lower.

Justin Jefferson as WR#3, was drafted closer to 10.
Jakobi Meyers as WR#33, his exact final, while his ADP was somewhere in the 60ies or 70ies.
Amon-Ra St. Brown as WR#40 (finished #21), his ADP was non-existent (in the 80ies range, I think).

And even on Deebo, while being way too low on him at WR#20, I was still a lot higher on than ADP, which at that time was in the low 30ies.

So yeah, I’m pretty happy with my adorable spreadsheets. Bonus, if they even provide a source of amusement for you. Extra bonus if your mockery backfires so hilariously as it did with Ekeler last year. More fun for both of us. So don’t stop the music!

I see Schultz as Cowboys #2 target until Gallop comes back with he and Lamb having big years.


Yeah, seems like we’re all on the same page on this one here. Best of Luck,

Thanks for all the info guys appreciate it

I like Lamb too, but you’re bordering on circular reasoning here. Lamb will be a top 10 WR because he’ll get 163 targets, and Lamb will get 163 targets because that’s not an outrageous number for a top 10 WR.

What I laugh at is you guys thinking that “projecting targets” somehow makes your rankings more accurate. More likely, your projections either consciously or subconsciously reflect your own intuitive rankings. If I like Diggs better than Lamb, then I’ll project him for 170 targets, and if I like Lamb better, then I’ll project Diggs for 160 targets. It’s meaningless.

Just say you like Lamb better than Diggs. You’re no more and no less likely to be right.

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A new guy says thanks and you two ignore him in a debate. At least take 5 to say your welcome, It does help to build others talking here. JMO

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If he runs away sobbing because Axe Elf didn’t say “You’re welcome,” then he’s probably not going to last long anyway.

He did not run or say anything other than thanks for all the info. All me.

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All I did was ask a question. And I agreed with everything you said Axeelf. You gave good info and I appreciated it