So this year my league decided to remove the designated TE slot all together and giving us an extra 2 flex spots.
How should I approach the TE position now in this 12 team PPR draft?
Should I even draft one at all if I don’t get one of the 3 elite TE’s?
Should I just save my last pick in the draft for a TE? Please help!!
I would lump all TE’s together with the receivers statistically. The main ones you might consider early-ish would be the elite 3, plus Kyle Pitts. The rest get compared to WR’s, although they will probably still fall to later in the draft.
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Did a quick check, replaced all TE in my ranking file by WR.
Results for PPR leagues:
Kelce = WR5
Waller = WR11
Kittle = WR14
Andrews = WR35
Hockenson = WR37
Logan Thomas = WR49
Higbee = WR54
Pitts = WR55
Of course, you’d need to consider RBs as well. As soon as you draft for the flex spots, you’d essentially look only at ADP/ECR, not at the actual skill position for a player.
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You have Pitts rated way too low, IMO.
Maybe. But I’m not too optimistic about the Falcons’ offense this year. They don’t have a strong run game, and their o-line is average at best. Ryan’s completion rate has been dropping steadily for 3 straight years. Sure, they’ll play from behind quite a bit. But still, all that does not scream “top 10 passing offense” to me. Not this year.
I have Pitts down for 71/663/5 TDs.* That’s very solid numbers for a rookie TE in a team that also still has Hayden Hurst, who won’t disappear entirely and steal a TD or two from Pitts.
Can Pitts do more? Certainly. But I’m not ready to bet on it yet. Maybe I’m wrong here - we’ll see.
*Edit: I should add that I did my projections based on a 16 game season. I was too lazy to adjust my Excel files. 
So make that 75/704/5.2 based on a 17 game projection.
Regarding the Falcons offense, consider these factors.
First, Arthur Smith is an awesome offensive coach. If anything, the offense should improve under him.
Second, the Falcons were not shabby at all last year, at least offensively. But because their defense was and is a dumpster fire, that just puts the pressure on the offense to pass even more, although adding Mike Davis will at least give them a reasonable running game, something they lacked last year. Expect the same amount of passes as last year, but with a running game to keep defenses honest. In other words, more passing efficiency.
Third, the trade of Julio Jones leaves a much larger role for everyone else. That’s 68 targets going elsewhere. And the Falcons didn’t draft Pitts where they did in order to give Hurst a bigger role. The Jones targets and some of Hurst’s targets will be going to Pitts, who should easily see 100+ targets this year, probably closer to 130. Don’t be surprised to see Pitts with 90+ catches and close to 1000 yards.
Fourth, from all accounts, it looks like Pitts will be playing the slot role on passing downs. That’s how good this kid is. But that is also a much larger role than TE’s usually get in their first season.
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I’m not saying all this impossible. Just that I’m not ready to bet on it. That also has a lot to do with my projection method, which is something for a separate thread.
There is a steady decline in pass completions over the last years.
2018: 69.4%
2019: 67.1%
2020: 65.0%
I see that tied to 2 factors: the need to pass a lot, including a lot of high risk passes, because of the terrible defense. And Matt Ryan showing signs of age regression.
I actually believe that trend will continue, and also that the Falcons will have slightly less pass attempts per game than they did in 2020, because of the better run option, and because they have a much lower strength of schedule (i.e., easier opponents).
Combined, that leaves me with 44 completions less than they had in 2020 (again, both based on a 16-game projection.
Jones actually didn’t leave as many targets vacated as many think. His average target share per game was 19.2%. That’s “per game played”, not across the season, so the fact that he played only 9 games isn’t a factor here.
Ridley hat 24.3%. Gage 17.4%, and even Hurst had 14.0%.
Jones also only had a 19.8% TD share per game played. What saved his fantasy season was the insane number of yards he racked up on the rather few receptions.
In my projections, I gave Pitts the exact target share Jones left behind. Plus an even higher TD share. But less yards, of course.
I didn’t project a large role for Hurst, but he’s not going to disappear. 34/303/1.8 is what I have him down for. I gave Ridley a slight bump in targets, but otherwise kept him on his 2020 level. Gage will struggle to repeat his 2020 season.
Davis is a competent pass catcher out of the backfield, so he’ll get a few air targets as well. And Cordarrelle Patterson won’t play only special teams as well.
With all that said and done, I just can’t see a 100+ reception season for Pitts. Unless the Falcons passing offense will be a lot better than projected, and Pitts manages to cut into Calvin Ridley’s production, or eliminate the RBs as pass catchers. Not impossible, but as I said, I’m not ready to bet on it.
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And ol mr det Hockenson waaaaay over rated in my opinion. Yea matty sucked and didn’t know how to use a TE on a blitz or anytime else but still overrated.
I don’t know how many TDs you’re shoveling to Pitts as well, but with those kinds of numbers, I’m thinking you expect something in the neighborhood of 8? So 238 PPR fantasy points.
So you expect Pitts to have not only the greatest season for a rookie TE in history, you also expect him to have one of the top 25 greatest TE seasons of all time by ANY TE? Yeah, that seems reasonable…
Considering how the Falcons plan to use him in the slot, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility. The only question is whether he is smart enough to pick up the offense in his first season. If he is, he could blow the doors off expectations. The potential is there. Several years from now, he WILL be better than Travis Kelce. The only question is how long that progression takes.