There are not many good ones and fewer you really want. I believe it is important to have one who can at least lend a helping hand during the season. A closer look:
Kelce Clear #1 but is old and is gonna get tons of attention with no Hill. 1st or 2nd round.
Andrews My favorite, rock solid in targets from Jackson. 2nd
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Pitts Great talent, horrible situation. Maybe 3rd but I may go in 4th.
Waller, Kittle, Schultz Solid picks who can help but have questions. I would prefer Schults a bit for age. Maybe 5, depending the draft, but 6 for me.
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Hockenson and Goedert The last ones I would want. 7th or 8th
Andrews deserves an early pick. The Ravens won’t throw the ball a lot, but they also hardly have any targets. Many analysts are concerned about TD regression. I’m not. He’s my TE#1.
Kelce is my TE#2, but comes with the risks you mentioned.
My TE#3 is Waller, but it remains to be seen if he can command the target share he’d need for that. Plus, in FFP, there is a 40 point gap between Kelce and Waller, whereas the next TEs (Kittle, Schultz, Hockenson, Smith, Ertz, Pitts, Goedert) follow rather closely.
So in redraft, spend an early pick on Andrews or on Kelce (if you can accept the risk), or wait to the mid or late rounds to grab a TE.
Irv Smith or Mike Gesicki are good cheap options. Robert Tonyan could work as well this season - if he’s healthy. Right now, it looks like he isn’t.
But don’t waste an early pick on a TE who will only give you 30 points more than a guy you could get in the 12th round.
Agree Zak. Pitts is a wild card depending on the type of league you are in. No clue as to what his team is doing and will adjust my thinking in a month.
I would like to get a top TE but depends on the draft.
There isn’t a new coach in Atlanta, and Pitts was TE7 in his rookie season. In yards, he was TE3. In targets, he was TE5. The reason he dropped to TE7 was his 1 TD for the season. Considering what a TD beast he was in college, I have to believe there is some regression coming, especially with Drake London on the roster, instead of Calvin “baby needs new shoes” Ridley (before he flaked out).
To me, Pitts is TE1, Andrews at 2, Kelce at 3, Waller at 4, then Kittle and Schultz are a tossup at 5. Kittle has an injury history, but Schultz is just Mr. Reliability. Beyond those guys, pull a Calvin Ridley and roll the dice!
The Falcons aren’t the easiest team to project. We don’t know what the backfield will look like, how much Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier will contribute to the passing game, what Cordarrelle Patterson’s role will be, and if Olamide Zaccheaus and Bryan Edwards will manage to carve out at least a somewhat meaningful role.
The addition of Firkser is not a major concern to me, he will serve mostly as a blocker.
Pitts is a constant in that offense. The question is, will the team volume be good enough to push him into the top 5. I have my doubts there.
I gave Pitts 22.5% of the team passing volume, plus 4 TDs instead of last year’s 1, and he still came out only as TE#9.
However, TEs are awfully close to each other in that region. An extra TD and a few extra yards, and he’d be TE#5 already.
But he would need a 30% target, yard and TD share to step into the top 3 conversation. That seems a bit optimistic, albeit not impossible.
With Drake London still recovering from last year’s injury, plus the fact he’s a rookie, I still see Pitts as getting the lion’s share of targets, not to mention the fact there isn’t really a good 3rd target in that offense. I might push him closer to a 30% target share.
In dynasty, Pitts is the clear #1 for me, challenged only by Mark Andrews. In redraft, I will probably stay away from him. He gets drafted pretty early, and I think you can get a TE who will produce just a few points less several rounds later.
Pitts is a fantastic player, but his prime is yet to come.
I expect the Falcons to move towards a more run-oriented offense, especially with Tyler Algeier there. Mariota is a good QB, but not a pass-first kind, more like a Tannehill with rushing upside. Expect the Falcons to play a lot of low-scoring, kill the clock kind of games.
Larely I’m seeing many different views on best between 3 and 5 for this year on Pitts, Kittle and Waller.
Schultz is locked at 6. Goedert and Hockenson disputes as well.