Keeper advice - Waddle, Etienne, Conner?

Need some help selecting my 3 keepers for a 12 team full PPR league.

Keepers are kept in one round less than the year before. My possible candidates are:
Jonathan Taylor (round 1)
Waddle (7)
Conner (8)
Trey Lance (11)
Etienne (14)
AJ Brown (17)

I can only keep 3 and Jonathan Taylor is a no brainer.

Starting lineups:

Agreed on JT, unless you happen to hold the 1.01.

Etienne in the 14th is a tremendous value, especially in a full PPR league. Not without risk, as he could be a bust, but he comes with RB1 upside. You don’t usually get players with RB1 upside in the 14th round.

That makes Conner expendable, even though an 8th is a fair value for him.

I’m lower on AJ Brown than most, as I am not convinced he will turn Jalen Hurts into a better real life QB. But in the 17th, he’s an absolute steal.

Waddle has a higher upside, though. Not without risk, as we don’t know what the target distribution in Miami will look like. I have Waddle and Tyreek both in WR1 territory, and can see a scenario where Tyreek gets the top CBs’ attention, opening a lot of doors for Waddle. He has top 6 upside, but can also end up as a fantasy WR2.

Lance in the 11th is nice, too. Top 10 upside, but still unproven. You’d have to back him up with another startable QB, so he’s not a must-keep, even though the price is low. And the question is, in a 3-keeper league, how many better QBs will end up in the draft, and will still be on the board when you enter the draft in the second round.

I would lock in JT and ETN.
And then:

  • Lance, if you don’t expect to find a QB1 in the 2nd round,
  • Waddle, if you want to go for the WR with the highest upside,
  • or Brown, if you want to make the best value pick.

Good luck!

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All 3 look like no-brainers to me–Taylor, Etienne and Brown.

QBs are as valuable as defenses, and you’re not considering keeping a defense, are you?–especially a crappy QB who is essentially a rookie.

Conner’s probably past his prime, and Waddle and Brown are about even, so the 7th round vs 17th round becomes the deciding factor at WR.