I play in a 12 team, half PPR league with one keeper per year and I have the third pick. My best keeper options are Hurts in the 5th (pick 51), Waddle in the 9th (pick 99), or Ridley in the 15th (last round). You could make a case for all of them. Hurts has overall QB1 upside but the pick value may be the worst of the three. Waddle has a very high floor as a 1B WR in a good offense, but a lower ceiling with Hill lining up on the opposite side. Ridley has the best pick value but is still in a relatively unproven offense and hasnât played in quite a while. Iâm leaning Waddle since heâs a guaranteed high-end WR2 (barring Tuaâs health) but Iâm interested in hearing some feedback.
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Welcome back!
Letâs toss Ridley aside to start. Sure, thereâs plenty of upside, but there is also 2 years of head case and suspension.
Letâs look at guys who can perform, and we know it.
Waddle may be the better bargain, but Hurts for a 5th rounder is hard to top this year. That was his ADP last year. Since the league is only half PPR, that means Hurts is just a little more valuable,
Take Hurts and ignore the position until later in the draft.
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Getting a top 10 WR in the last round is something you dream about, as a fantasy football player.
I hope you donât have to kick yourself all season for throwing that opportunity away.
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Thanks for the reply! Itâs definitely close between Hurts and Waddle. Iâll def be taking your advice into consideration.
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Thatâs the reason I included Ridley, the path to him becoming the alpha on a good offense is clear. However, with the other two I know what Iâm getting. Ridley is a little murkier. Jags are expected to have a good offense but you never really know (look at the Broncos last year). Def something to think about, Thanks for the reply though!
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Waddle in 9 is the choice. Hurts in 5 can be replaced by a vg top 8 QB. No way in hell can you replace a Waddle in the 9th. Surprised it is a question.
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Axe Elf recommends that you read this thread before you write off Ridley.
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Ridley versus Waddle isnât even a competition. Waddle wins that, regardless of âRidley is backâ.
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Letâs examine that.
Waddleâs last full season (2022) resulted in 221.7 half-PPR fantasy points and a WR7 finish. Waddle played all 17 games, averaging 13.0 ppg.
Ridleyâs last full season (2020) resulted in 236.5 half-PPR fantasy points and a WR4 finish. Ridley played 13 games, averaging 15.8 ppg.
Waddle has basically the same situationâsame team, same QB, same coaching.
Ridley goes from Matt Ryan and the middling Falcons to Trevor Lawrence and a projected playoff team. And if you read Calvin Ridleyâs Letter to the League, you know youâre going to get his A-game this year.
I wouldnât say itâs not a competition, but Waddle isnât the winner.
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Thatâs the reason I included Ridley, the path to him becoming the alpha on a good offense is clear. However, with the other two I know what Iâm getting. Ridley is a little murkier. Jags are expected to have a good offense but you never really know (look at the Broncos last year). Def something to think about, Thanks for the reply though!
Did you really just compare the Jags offense to the Broncdohs layered situation last season? Youâre grounded. 
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Those who play in keeper leagues know that age is a factor. Ridley is 28 and the last time we saw him was in 2021.
Waddle is 24 and the last time we saw him was last season when he was great.
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Youâre right, Broncos offense was laughably bad last year. But you canât sit there and tell me that preseason there wasnât a bunch of hype around their offenseâs potential. There were 6-7 players in that offense that were considered solid-or-better draft choices last year. All Iâm saying is that the Jags situation coming into this season seems similar to me. Doesnât mean I think they are going to be bad, but the track record isnât quite there yet and therefore there is a certain amount of risk baked into their offense. Ridley in particular, too, since this is his first year on this team after not playing for 1+ years and heâs not a young buck anymore.
You donât often have a player open up the way Ridley did in that letter, thanks for sharing that.
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This is an excellent point when factoring in these guys as future keepers. The average WRâs prime starts to end in their late 20âs. There are always exceptions to the rule, but smart money bets on the beginning of a decline at that age. Waddle arguably has yet to reach his prime. Might have to make a Venn diagram or something to figure this out 
When you only get one keeper, though, age is no longer a consideration. There will ALWAYS be at least ONE player on your team worth keeping into the next year, regardless of age. If youâre trying to keep together a TEAM in a dynasty or multi-keeper format, then the age of its components matters. For a single keeper, no.
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Back to the Jaguars comparison to the BroncosâŚ
Anyone paying last year would have seen the big flaw in the supposed âgemâ that was supposed to be the Broncos season: Russell Wilson. In 2021, Wilson stunk in Seattle. Denver stupidly traded for him, and he stunk again. Anyone surprised? Nope.
Now we get the narrative that Sean Payton will resurrect Russell Wilsonâs career. If Wilson wouldnât listen to Pete Carroll or Nathaniel Hackett, what makes you think Payton can do anything with him? Iâm not buying this.
As for the Jags, that offense can only get better if Ridley shows up to play. Otherwise, they still have many of the same pieces they had last year. Expect the Jags to win their division easily, good Ridley or bad.
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Youâre right, Broncos offense was laughably bad last year. But you canât sit there and tell me that preseason there wasnât a bunch of hype around their offenseâs potential. There were 6-7 players in that offense that were considered solid-or-better draft choices last year. All Iâm saying is that the Jags situation coming into this season seems similar to me. Doesnât mean I think they are going to be bad, but the track record isnât quite there yet and therefore there is a certain amount of risk baked into their offense. Ridley in particular, too, since this is his first year on this team after not playing for 1+ years and heâs not a young buck anymore.
Yes, yes I can actually. I never ever saw the Broncos like so many did last year.
Iâm going to give some advice (or anyone) that helped me unlock my annual fantasy performances considerably - starting about 5 years ago. The main thing is that you want to draft players who have the least amount of unknowns, in addition to erroring on ceiling upside against round/tier. And Iâm not just talking about the player individually (of course) but the entire picture. The Broncos effectively had none of that for their offense last year. Iâll use R. Wilson as an exampleâŚ
Wilson went from being under P. Carrollâs wing for his whole career to a new team, new system and new head coach - in his first year. Wilson is a system QB, who takes to much time in the pocket, doesnât throw short over the middle because of his height and used to improvise well until his age caught up with him. On the upside heâs a stall-wort who has hardly ever been injured. Just knowing this about Wilson should leave anyone apprehensive about drafting not only him - at his then ADP - but any players who explicitly rely on him for their fantasy production. How do I validate the Carroll comment? Easy. G. Smith and it wasnât just last year. Look what he did when he spelled Wilson from the only injury he ever had over a few games in '21. Excellence. He didnât unlock Smith in '22, he did it in '21 and they knew it. 
I called Jeudy to be a bust - in my league I commish - after his roOkie year (when I drafted him late). I saw what he did the whole year - âMr. Brick Handsâ. Has that improved since then - yes. Has he lived up to his ADP since then? No. Does he have his best chance to succeed as a pro this year? Yes. Will I draft him? No.
Donât even get me started on C.Sutton. This is a guy who I was curious about not long after Wilson arrived, but only because of his ADP. After some quick research I realized (with everything else) that he was fools gold. Sutton came into last year with a garbage career catch % and plenty of years to figure that out. That kind of stat tends to be sticky. My production and stature comp to him is D.J. Chark. Heâs only had one season where he was barely start worthy. I know plenty might say⌠âwell neither of these WRâs ever had a good situation at QB, so yaâŚâ and I say re-read my summary on Wilson. GoOd, or especially great WRâs make their QBâs job easier. They level up the QB theyâre playing with. Hill, Waddle, Adams, Diggs and Jefferson are wonderful examples of that. If either QB could choose to play with Jeudy & Sutton or Metcalf & Lockett - who do you think theyâd go with?
J.Williams is the only player I was interested in drafting last year or this year from the Broncos (and did). This is a position that doesnât exclusively rely on QB production and in some occasions, can be the player the team leans on. But he got injured - bummer. Still won my league anyways.
As far as these other 2-3 players youâre talking about? Broncos D? Yes. T. Patrick? Rookie G. Dulcich? Hardly anyone knew who these guys were going into last year, much less drafted them. The '22 Broncos pre-season hype was going from a crap QB situation to a statistically good QB, without considering much else.
On the other hand, the Jaguars are an ascending young team. If you want to talk about C. Ridley as an individual to fantasy or what he will do for the Jags offense, fine. But to try to compare the Jags - in any way - to the Broncos, no dude. Or that if Ridley is less than we thought that somehow the Jags are doomed. Again, no. Adding Ridley is like putting a decent turbo charger on an existing engine, that was already good. About the worst thing the Jags have done in the past 2 seasons is they over thought the 1st pick overall; taking the wrong DE. 
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I love your entire post! Good work!
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