Keeper Advice: In need of more perspective

12 team .1/2 ppr league, QB-RB-RB/WR-WR-WR-TE-K-D
Pass yard points 1 per 25
Receiving/rush pts 1 per 10

I have an abundance of keeper options and I need insight. Ill list my keepers and their keeper rounds. these keepers move up 2 rounds yearly and cannot be kept if previously drafted rnds 1-3) the rounds have already been adjusted for this year. Other considerations is that at the start of the draft, up to 36 players are already off the board.

WR-M Pittman R4(+2)- Too Early?
RB-R Mostert R6(-2)- Too Old?Too Early?
QB-A.Richardson R8(+3)- Too little time on the field?
QB- K Murray R9(+3)- Solid at the end of the year. How much will Marvin Harrison Jr make!!!
RB- T Etienne R11(+8)- How can I not?!
WR- A St Brown R12(+11)- KEEPING!
WR- R Rice R13(+7)- (seems on a course of self destruction) can probably draft him late anyways?
WR- Jayden Reed R14(+8)- How can I not?
WR- T Dell R15(+10)- How can I not, but Does Diggs Help or Hurt?

Keeping
1)StBrown
2)Etienne
3)???Dell, JReed, Pittman, Murray, Richardson???

To me it is down to 2 choices here: Pittman and Dell. I would normally say Pittman because I love the talent/size/volume, but given your league’s round depreciation rate I am going to settle on Dell.

My case

  • The chemistry and link between Dell and Stroud cannot be ignored. Don’t forget how he was going nuclear before his injury - immediately favored over existing options. Even with the favortism, there was STILL plenty of volume going around in what was supposed to be a run-first leaning offense. Everyone ate.
  • Considering the 1st year breakout and the fact that you will get him in the 15th (right?), this investment is going to pay off if he keeps up this pace. If he does what he did this year (even if it is a half-season again), he will skyrocket to a late 1st/early 2nd ADP next season (2025-2026). Therefore, you are going to be getting a massive discount on a potential 1st round WR year in and year out.
  • Pittman WILL be reliable. You WILL get the con sistency of Amon Ra - he has proved that even with Richardson in the short sample size, and no one else on the roster leads me to think this won’t cpmntinue. The problem with Pittman when compared up against Dell is that I think we have seen Pittman’s ceiling. It is a good ceiling, but I will take the skys-the-limit ceiling of Dell over the next 3 years (at least!). It also doesnt look like your league is going to let you prove this theory wrong for more than a year, right? Round 4 this year is not too early, but after he moves up to round 2, you will be hurting yourself taking him there over other options. Also, if I am understanding the league rules correctly, you wont be able to keep him again once he hits that 2nd round cost.
  • If you decide to keep Dell, Amon ra, and Etienne, it seems like you would have an opportunity to draft Pittman anyway, right? If you really like him, he might be there to take naturally.
  • Don’t Keep Mostert. He is way too old. He might have another blow up season; there is a good chance of that still. Let him have a blow up season on someone else’s roster and spare yourself the weekly start/sit heartburn and the inevitable keeper decision for next season. His production drop off will occur any minute and you don’t want to be holding the bag. Another thing to consider is that we all know he has a career riddled with terrible injuries. This has occurred so much that I consider his last 2 as outliers - not normal status quo. He has been dealing with this since college and don’t think that being another year older is going to help…Again…you can probably draft this guy.
  • Kyler and Richardson: I love BOTH of these guys this year but I have a strong philosophy that I will never keep a QB. I will also never draft one early, which is why I am giving the QBs their own bullet: Nothing frustrated me more last year when we heard every single analyst across the industry latch on to an outlier season and suggested that we take QBs at the top of the draft last year. One of the analyst decided to release a stat from the 2022 season that suggested that we have been incorrectly valuing QBs in the draft. What? I love how every analyst will tell you “don’t buy into recency bias” (which…is what this game is all about??? it literally drives EVERYTHING…so I never understood that advice either…) and then they lean HARD into a new draft strategy that suggests you to abandon the tried and true late rnd QB strat and blow a 2/3/4 pick on an anamoly year. It cracks me up to this day, because if you listen to all of them THIS pre-draft season, you will hear crickets on the early QB strategy. Barely a mention. Almost like they were ignoring the advice they gave last year because as it turns out, only 1 QB was not considered a bust if you went that route (which is another outlier in itself! it usually will be 3-4 QBs who were taken early will pay off LOL). I am not just talking smack about the FantasyPros Analysts. THis was suggested by all of them: FPs, CBS, The Fantasy Footballers, and every other podcast that make their living off parroting those 3 organizations. All this is to say, go back to the tried and true strategy from JJ - late rnd QB. They all end up being seperated by 2-10 pts at the end of the season. Certainly don’t keep em.

I didn’t spell check ANYTHING here. Hope this helps if it is legible! Good luck this season!.

I’m with Zero due to silly rules stipulations.

Pittman is the clear better choice to win this year based on his history and projected volume of targets as the featured #1 WR.
His early ADP is #28 (late 3rd) so your cost is no value savings

Dell has to compete with Collins, Diggs and Mixon for targets.
He is small and a higher injury concern.
However, he has the better QB, targets should increase in 2025 and is your only choice in your league.