I’m looking for some advice on a 4th keeper. This is a 10 team auction 0-4 keeper league with salaries that increase each year, full point PPR, 6 pts for any TD. 15 man roster, no kickers. We start QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, D/ST. $200 budget.
My first 3 keepers are:
Najee Harris ($40)
D’Andre Swift ($20)
Ja’Marr Chase ($12)
These are the pool of players remaining that I’m considering as my 4th keeper:
Jalen Hurts ($5)
Diontae Johnson ($6)
Elijah Moore ($5)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5)
Ronald Jones ($5)
I guess it really only comes down to the top 2 guys, Diontae Johnson and Jalen Hurts.
I’ve seen Diontae ranked higher than Hurts in just about every ranking, but the Steelers are retooling now and QB situation may be up in the air. I’ve also heard some people say his value goes UP because Ben was bad last year. But I also think Claypool could surpass him? He’s injury prone.
I took Hurts as my backup last year to Brady ($23 to keep so not worth it anymore). Hurts had some great games, actually outscoring Brady on a number of times which cost me wins. But I could never bring myself to start him because… well, who benches Tom Brady? Adding AJ Brown, another year for Devonta, the emergency of Goedert, I think Hurts has the potential to be a league winner if he can put it all together. On the other hand he could be out of Philly as early as next season.
I think both players present the same amount of value/discount – Hurts at $5 and Johnson at $6.
QB6-7 went for around $12-13 last season, and WR13-15 went for around $12-13 also.
Anyway I know I’m spoiled with the top 3 keepers, but I would love to hear anyone’s thoughts on the 4th keeper.
I won’t argue you here. Both Hurts and Diontae are value keepers. I still don’t believe in Hurts as an NFL QB, but for fantasy purposes, he’s great and should at the very least be able to repeat his 2021 performance.
Diontae is a bit trickier to project. I’d prefer Hurts here, also since you already kept an elite WR.
The addition of AJ Brown suddenly makes Hurts a QB1 possibility. No, he won’t be Tom Brady, but maybe more like a Lamar Jackson vintage 2019. Mind you, that is his upside, possibly minus the monster rushing totals. Still, not a bad place to be.
Give me Hurts and your other three keepers, and I can win most leagues.
As for Diontae, he’s not a league winner, even on his best days. He’s only good.
We’ve been a keeper auction league for about 8 years and prior to that just a normal draft keeper league. Yea, I’ve seen leagues come and go but this one has managed to stay alive. Mind you, we started with 14 teams and are down to 10. And there’s been different owners that have come and gone, but there’s about 8 of us that have been there since the beginning.
Sure, if you want to ignore the fact that the Lions drafted Jameson Williams. In a best-case scenario for St. Brown, Williams will miss a good portion of his rookie season. But as soon as he hits the field, he will claim the lion’s share in a mediocre passing offense that will not have enough volume to support 2 fantasy relevant WRs.
That seems to be the best strategy in considering a rookie who won’t play until at least Week 7. But even when he’s back, he will be more of an outside deep threat than the underneath possession guy like St. Brown. Williams will hurt Chark more when he returns (if he can return in top NFL form) than St. Brown.
St. Brown probly won’t be a top 5 WR again, but he’s got a role as Goff’s current favorite target, and should easily remain among the top 20.
