12 team keeper league, keep 5 players. I have an offer for my 4.7 pick in exchange for Jalen Hurts. My QB’s are putrid and I won’t be keeping any of them (Tannehill is my best current qb). If I accept the trade, I’d drop Dionte before the draft, and the 6 teams ahead of me are solid but not great at WR so I run a high risk of losing him. 5 of the 6 will keep their current QB, but one needs a qb and would likely take Hurts. So, would you keep Dionte and hope to get Hurts in the 1st (really the 6th round given the keepers) or should I trade for Hurts and run the risk of losing Dionte? Thanks for any help!
That’s very difficult to answer without knowing what your draft board will look like.
As long as Hurts can keep the starting job in Philly, he’ll be a fantasy RB1 thanks to his massive rushing volume. The risk with him is that, if he doesn’t improve his passing game now that he has better weapons, he may lose that job.
I don’t expect that to happen during the 2022 season, though. So for this season at least, he’ll be an asset on QB.
Diontae faces a somewhat risky season himself. I don’t think he’ll drop as far as some fear. I still have him as WR#12 in my rankings, but that’s pretty much his ceiling. And the risk that he may regress well into WR2 territory is real.
So in a vacuum, I wouldn’t blame you if you dropped him in favor of Hurts.
The question is indeed which WR you can get in the draft to replace him.
Doing a strictly mathematical approach: I have Hurts projected with 23.2 points per game, and Tannehill with 17.8. That’s a 5.4 point difference.
In full PPR, I have Diontae at 17.3 points per game. So as long as you find a replacement player who scores more than 12 full PPR points per game, you will be better off with Hurts + player X than you would be with Tannehill + Diontae.
12 PPG is low-end WR3 territory. You should be able to get a player in that range. There should be a couple of fantasy WR2s on the board at 1.07.
So the gut feeling is: make the trade.
Plus, you can still see if you find another owner who would give you a pick for Diontae. He was WR#8 in PPR last year, so there should be a few teams who’d consider him an upgrade and may trade a 4th or 5th round pick back to you.
If you would make the trade, who are your 4 other keepers besides Hurts?
One of the best fantasy analyses I’ve ever read. Well done!
My other keepers are Kelce, Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Conner. I’ve debated dropping Conner instead, but that would leave me with no RB, However, it is a full PPR league and we start 1 RB, 2 WR, and 2 Flex, so I could shoot for depth at RB with multiple RB picks in the first few rounds if I dropped/traded Conner. My other main back last year was Carson, so he’s out of the question as a keeper.
Does it make more sense to keep Dionte and deal or drop Conner? I’ve seen him in the top 15 of most rankings, so my thought is to keep him so I have a consistent back with some upside.
My main problem last year was QB play. I waited on QB in the draft last year, but in the 8/9th round almost every other team took their 2nd (and in 2 cases 3rd) QB’s as I waited for my turn. My team was good, but the disadvantage i had at QB killed me in the playoffs. I’m very motivated to avoid that situation again this year.
So, should i make the trade and then trade or drop one of my other keepers?
Thanks for your help!!
The risk with Conner is a potential injury. He was healthy last season, but that was the first time in forever.
If he stays healthy, I have him at RB#16, so just outside the top 15. I won’t blame you if you want to keep him. He carries some risk, but will also be hard to replace.
The question to me is if I would keep Keenan Allen over Diontae. Yes, he’s been great in recent years, and the Chargers’ steamhammer offense only just started rolling. But Allen is also 30 years old now.
For 2022, I ranked him and Diontae right next to each other. Allen has more upside, but also more risk for age regression or injury. In a full dynasty, I would prefer Diontae for sure.
Even for Kelce, an argument can be made to trade him away, since you don’t have to start a TE. I’d say make the trade and then see if you find another owner who’s ready to spend a nice early-round pick on either Kelce, Keenan Allen or Diontae.
If nobody has interest in a trade, drop Diontae, as he has the lowest ADP, and thus offers the best chance to get him right back in the draft.
Thanks for the advice, Zak!
I’d keep hurts. Hurts could be a Top 5 fantasy QB this year and Diontae is a solid WR but you already have Diggs Allen. There are more WR’s that could be WR1’s than QB’s with the same potential. It’s more likely you draft a WR that is a WR3 that ends up a WR2 than Tannehill becoming a QB1
Also for Allen and Dointae debate. The offence they are in is important. Herbert vs Trubisky/Pickett. I would take Allen in LAC offence. AFC West will be a lot of high scoring games this year.