Nope. Maybe top 20, but I don’t even see him there.
I projected improvments for Lawrence all across the board:
+3% completion rate.
+350 passing yards.
Twice as many passing TDs as in 2021 (12 → 24)
The result is: QB#22. Let’s not forget the Jaguars are still a terrible team. Maybe ETN can elevate T-Law into top 20 territory, but that’s the best I can see.
Unlikely. Sanders is not a pass catcher, Gainwell is breathing down his neck, and his QB is soaking up a third of the team rushing volume already.
The Eagles are the #2 rushing offense in the NFL. Sanders, even if healthy for the entire season (another question mark) will struggle to get into RB2 range. RB#28 in my current rankings.
You didn’t specify how high you see him rising, but the answer probably is ‘nope’ anyway.
His QB is still a big question mark, and first reports from TC don’t instill confidence (though I wouldn’t overrate that). The Jets spent a first round pick on an arguably even more talented WR. And most importantly: the Jets currently have a whole armada of potential pass catchers on the roster:
Hall and Carter, who both profile as pass catching backs.
Uzomah, Conklin and rookie Ruckert on TE.
Wilson and Moore as the alpha receivers.
Corey Davis is still there.
Braxton Berrios, whom they like a lot.
And even Denzel Mims, who gets a lot of praise in TC.
Half of these players would have to drop off the target radar AND Moore would have to establish himself as the clear alpha target among the rest AND Wilson would have to make a huge step forward for Moore to get a chance at reaching into WR2 territory.
Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I have him at TE#7, so not far removed. But let’s look at the competition:
Kelce is still there. Maybe he will start showing signs of age regressions. Or not.
Andrews is set for a strong season. There just aren’t any other pass catchers in BAL.
Schultz is set for a strong season. There just aren’t many other pass catchers in DAL.
Waller will have to battle for targets, but the Raiders will play a strong season.
Kittle may drop out of the top 5. Or not.
Pitts had a strong rookie season, and gives us little reason to expect regression.
Ertz is still the alpha TE in Arizona.
Goedert plays a strong role in Philly, and may do well even if Hurts continues to struggle.
That’s 8 strong competitors. Hockenson will have to outperform half of them, to get into top 5 territory, while also keeping competition like Gesicki, Freiermuth and maybe even Tonyan (if healthy) and Albert O (dark horse) in check.
Not impossible, but I wouldn’t bet too much on it. Hockenson is a good TE, though, I don’t want to talk him down.
My value picks, based on my July projections (still gotta work on my August adjustments):
QB: Jameis Winston - #13
Winston finished #14 or better in all complete seasons he played.
RB: Najee Harris - #1
Discussed in many a thread here - Najee will dethrone JT.
Alternative suggestion: Travis Etienne - #14, with top 10 upside.
WR: Michael Pittman - #4
Thanks to an upgrade on QB and very little target competition on the roster.
Maybe Gerald Everett, who may have a chance to reach for the top 12.
But I’m not really promoting a lot of TEs this year, outside of some deep sleepers.