Biggest Surprise in Fantasy 2022?

There are many so far to credit and likely more to come as top pick WRs have shown they can explode late season. For now:

QB- Bear’s Fields has been a top 12 QB the last 5 weeks and has established himself as a fantasy starter who should only get better.

Dolphins Tua has been given great talent but with the play calls of new HC McD
has taken it to new levels.

RB= Rookie romp as Houston’s Pierce, Seattle’s Walker and Jax redshirt have all exploded onto the scene. Stevenson is one many doubted.

WR- Rookie Olave leads the way here. Kirk is another in being the #9 scoring WR in the league.

TE- Steelers Freirmuth tops my list.


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“Surprise” implies I didn’t see the success coming. That rules out Tua, Dameon Pierce, Ken Walker, ETN, Olave and Freiermuth for me, whom I had all projected rather high.

Justin Fields definitely checks all boxes. I had him at QB27, after they had given him zero new weapons. But Fields broke out big time in recent weeks. If he can keep it up, he could be a top 5 QB off the board next year.

Geno Smith is the other QB candidate. I had gambled on Lock to win the starter job in Seattle, and had him as QB29. Instead, it was Smith who got the nod, and is the QB7 after week 8.

Daniel Jones and Jared Goff are also better than expected.

On RB: Ekeler, whom I had expected to regress. Saquon, whom I had not expected to become that good again (mostly as I did not think the Giants would be that good). Josh Jacobs, whom I was high on, but not THAT high. Rhamondre, but his big breakout also has a lot to do with Harris nursing injuries since week 5. Before that, it was the expected 1a/1b situation.

On WR, Christian Kirk is the only real positive surprise.

And on TE, there’s Taysom Hill. Not a traditional TE, and his overall ranking is distorted by his 3-TD performance in week 5. Still, I certainly did not expect him to be a consideration in fantasy. I hadn’t even ranked him.

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That’s fair man but, where did you draft the guys you saw coming? None went early.
FWIW I thought much of the same but not strong enough to step up and gamble on them and am kicking myself for not doing so.

Player PosADP My DP Current Rk
Tua 17 15 6
D Pierce 38 30 15
K Walker 35 28 21
T Etienne 18 12 22
C Olave 46 18 17
Muuth 11 10 10

Based on full PPR, current ranks after week 8 in PPG (not total).

So I have to stand corrected on Tua - I did not see that coming. I’m honestly surprised a little, thought I had ranked him higher, as I had Hill and Waddle both in the top 10. In total ranking, Tua is only QB15, but that’s because he missed 2.5 games, and I did not project any injuries.

Olave is certainly the biggest overperformer, compared to his original ADP, and I was super high on him before the season, even while expecting Michael Thomas to log a full season. I have him in 2 out of 3 redraft formats. In the South Beach league, I mis-gambled. Olave was taken as the #38 WR in round 11, and I had hoped I would get him in that round. In hindsight, it was a big mistake to pick Aiyuk in round 10, instead of securing Olave. I probably followed the Yahoo draft board closer than my own rankings.

Point being, we both saw these guys comin on but failed to act.
Is knowing and doing nothing about it better than not knowing?

I have shares in all of the players, except for Dameon Pierce, on whom I got ninja’d in 2 leagues.

When drafting, I do go by my own rankings, but also keep ADP in mind. Olave’s positional ADP was WR46, so there is no need to draft him as WR18, even though that’s where I had him ranked. But he was a late round pick on most drafts I followed, even went undrafted in some leagues.

In the tournament league (12 teams), I drafted him in the 9th round, with the 100th overall pick as the 38th WR off the board. Nobody screamed bloody murder in the chat when I picked him.

In the South Beach league, he got drafted with the 102nd pick, as the 38th WR off the board, so quite similar. So yeah, my gamble to grab him with the 107th overall pick backfired.

Being much higher on a player than his ADP is fine, until you find out that another owner in the league was, too.

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I liked Pierce but not in the 5th where Cosmic Tim took him to his credit.
I touted Walker and had him as my lucky 7 pick but Krash Keven beat me to him.
I got my favorite in London at 11. Ed took sleeper Pickins at 13 but gave him up
and I added him and then Burks with the last pick Mr. Irrelevant.

Jameson was an IR addition as i did with Erienne in a different league last year and took in the 4th this year.

Add in Toney and I got a lot of kids to watch, pretty much 6 rookies, and need them to grow up in the next 4 weeks. Time will tell.


Interesting question. Does a top drafted WR in his second year have more value than a top draft pick next year?

We have many examples to look at and compare.