Early thoughts on player outcomes following the 2023 draft

I currently have 4 players of interest and will need to pick 3 come the start of the season, 12 team league 1/2 pt/ rec and 4th pick over all

My over all order is St. Brown(14), Etienne(13), and Davante(3) or Geno(15)

Amon Ra St.Brown 14th rnd keeper

  • Gibbs and Laporta increase his value and his ability to get open and score TDs like last 6 weeks 2021?

Travis Etienne 13th rnd keeper

  • Im thinking Ridley helps Etienne’s numbers but doe bigsby cut into his rushing work potentially?

Geno Smith 15th round keeper

  • Smith is gambling on himself with the way his contract was structured. Carrol loves him has faith in him. Will he repeat or better his play from last year with the Charbonette, Walker, Metcalf, Locket, Nyjigba, Fant at his disposal.

Davante Adams 3rd rnd keeper

  • Jimmy G., Micheal Mayer, Jacobi Meyers… Do these guys subtract or increase his value in the upcoming season and is he worth it at rnd 3?
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We need to know the league’s scoring? Also the setup? (superflex? PPR? etc.)

Amon-Ra in the 14th is a no-brainer. I have him in a league where I have to spend a 5th to keep him, and will probably do even that. I was a bit afraid of the impact a healthy Jameson Williams could have on his target share, but the injured Jameson Williams is now replaced by the banned Jameson Williams, which makes things easier.

ETN in the 13th is also a must-keep. I don’t know what the Jags were thinking when drafting Bigsby, and yes, there is a certain risk that this will point towards an RBBC. But ETN still has his receiving upside, and it costs you nothing to keep him.

Between Geno in the 15th and Adams in the 3rd, I’m leaning towards Geno. Even if this is a single QB format. Geno was the #6 fantasy QB last year, and I don’t see why he should be a lot worse this year. Being able to keep a mid-range QB1 essentially for free will take a lot of pressure off your draft. If this is even an SFLEX league, he becomes a must-keep.

Davante in the 3rd is not a terrible option. But I don’t see how Jimmy G will elevate his production. Plus, Davante will turn 31 this season. There is every chance he will still justify a 3rd round investment, but there’s no guarantee either. He’s the most risky of your 4 options.

Good luck!

12 team 1/2 ppr scoring pretty basic aside from that. 1/25 pass 1/10 rush 1/10 rec. 6 per ru/rec TD and 4 per pass TD.
qb/rb/rb.wr/wr/wr/k/d/te 8 man bench

Jimmy G. never had a WR as good as Adams, so it’s hard to say. However, Adams had plenty of success last year, even in McDummie’s offense. I’d go ahead and keep him, even at his premium cost.

I don’t see Bigsby as a major threat to ETN.

With Williams being suspended for the first 6 weeks, Amon’s value just skyrocketed.

Smith is the one I’d let go, even if the cost is cheap to keep him.

Jax needed a 2nd RB and got one. I see no effect on ETN.

St. Brown is a top Fantasy WR, next.

Adams is a HOF WR and I think he has a year left.

Not a fan of Smith with indications of Carol going run heavy with Charbonnet, which he loves to do.

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You don’t draft a backup RB in the 3rd. The Jags had plenty of other needs.

So people said about Julio Jones when was the same age. His production promptly fell off a cliff. Also, let’s not forget why Davante went to Vegas: to play with his old college buddy Carr. Who then got the boot.

Conveniently ignoring that the Seahawks also drafted JSN. The #1 WR off the board. Geno will be fine.

I see Bigsby getting some short yardage and 5-10 carries a game which gives ETN a break and more chances to receive.

I never thought or said that of Jones and do not see Adams pouting and hurting his game.

I believe JSN could make a difference this year if there is an injury but taking over for Lockett next year on targets.
Charbonnet is impacting this year. JMO

Good to see a disagreement, this is fun. :slight_smile:

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I’m fairly certain Adam’s has consistently performed, sometimes better with backup QBs. I don’t think the QB is a concern for him unless that QB is god awful. Jimmy G will be fine
That said the late Geno pick vs the Rnd 3 Adam’s pick may continue to be a question mark for me into the draft. I can see myself going either way.

Is Geno going to improve, sustain, or turn into a Pumpkin. Even more can he sistain and for how many more years? Age 32 is making me bulk again, not much shelf life left, right?

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In all due respect I don’t see this as much of a question… Adams is a HOFer and top fantasy scorer. Geno had a good year but by all accounts projects as a fantasy backup QB. In my view keeper picks were not meant for that, They have too much value.

You cannot just count on Adams to play on that level forever. The last WR who finished top 10 at age 31 or older was Larry Fitzgerald in 2017. It’s not impossible that Adams will be the next one, but you cannot take it for granted.

HOFer or not, Adams has hit the empirical age cliff.

As for Geno’s long-term value: in a dynasty league, I would share the concern, even though I’d still expect Geno to be safe for 2 seasons. In a keeper league, you only have to worry about this season. And this season, the Seahawks are 100% committed to last year’s #6 fantasy QB.

I wouldn’t usually spend a keeper pick on a QB in a 1QB league. But you still need a QB. And here, you sacrifice a last round pick on a fantasy QB1. That is perfect value.


In 2002, Jerry Rice had 92 catches for 1211 yards and 7 td’s. He was 40 years old. He was 11th overall in fantasy.

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I’m not counting on Adams having found the “Fantasy Fountain of Youth.”
Last season he was rhe #3 WR with 285 points, two less than another old guy in Hill.

If he scores 90 points less, almost a TD a game, he is a WR 1 at #12.
If he scores 110 fewer points he is still top 20 over Higgins and Metcalf, etc.

Geno was #6 with 314 points, That is 25 points more (1.5 points per game) than 6 other QBs, Lawrence, Cousins, Fields, Jones, Goff and Herbert, with 2 missing 2 games and Herbert having an off year. Add Jackson and Tua missing 5 games.
I can see at least 6 passing him this year.

I have not seen anyone project him as a top 12 starting fantasy Qb for this season.
Add in more runs and more short passes to Njigba and I see him as a good 2nd QB at best. Not what keepers spots are for.

Neither did anybody last season. I had him as the #29 QB. Matter of fact, he finished #6.
Doesn’t mean he’ll be #6 again this year, but I also don’t see why his production would fall off a cliff. The 2023 Seahawks look better to me than the 2022 Seahawks did. And unlike 2022, the 2023 Seahawks are fully committed to Geno.

Matter of fact, you need a QB, even in 1 QB leagues.
If you can get a top 10 guy by giving up your final pick, that sounds like a sweet deal to me.

One thing is for sure: if you drop Geno, you won’t find him on the board in round 15 anymore.
If you drop Adams, there’s at least a chance you can still get him back in round 3.

In 2022, Tom Brady finished as the #3 QB in fantasy, being 44 years old. What does that tell us about 44 year old QBs?

Unicorns exist in the NFL. Brady was (is?) a unicorn. Rice was a unicorn. Cordarrelle Patterson was one, enjoying a breakout in his age 30 season. Austin Ekeler was a unicorn, claiming the #1 RB crow as an UDFA.

They exist.

Trying to chase them is a safe way to disappointment in fantasy football, though.


When you have a unicorn with a history, is it safe to discount him?

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Geno went undrafted in our keeper hybrid and carries a round 16 cost. Kevin is dropping him in spite of having 10 keepers and I would do the same.

Zak can move Fields and add Geno for next to nothing. Want me to broker that deal?

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Adams is no unicorn yet. If he keeps playing on that level for several more years, he will become one.

Give it a shot. People did the same with Julio Jones in recent years. And were disappointed.

Why would I do that when I already have Fields whom I can keep for next to nothing?

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