I don’t want to argue semantics, but isn’t it difficult to have a hot streak if your offense doesn’t utilize you?
Of course he’s being used. That’s why he is the RB3 in PPR formats. Question is, how long is this usage gonna work? DCs around the league should have his plays figured out by now. And the Falcons are facing some pretty tough defenses down the road.
Oh do come on! That was in the dark ages, when football was still a gentleman’s sport, and the defender would shake the RB’s hand before attempting to tackle him.
But okay - that gentleman had his breakout in his age-33 season. It was followed by a pretty moderate season, and then another good one. Impressive enough.
But let me ask you - assuming Patterson keeps playing the entire season on his current level. 33% snap share. 7 rushing attempts, 5 targets, increased RZ usage. How much would you spend on him during the offseason, to get him rostered for your 2022 season?
He’s averaging almost 21 points/game in PPR. Even if you remove his high and low games, he is still over 20 points/game. I can live with that on low utilization. If he continues this way for the rest of the season, he may be a top 5 pick next year.
Okay, even the biggest optimists certainly don’t expect him to score 3 TDs in every other game.
Let’s agree on one thing - Patterson is probably the most controversial player in terms of dynasty value. I am still comfortable with my 7, I can also accept Yates’ 2, and I also don’t blame you for putting him at 14 or higher.
Only time will tell who has been right. My prediction is that he will start fading this season already, and will have close to zero value next year. You are more with the “he can remain a fantasy RB1 for the foreseeable future” crowd.
And that’s the great thing about fantasy football. We all don’t know what will happen next week, let alone next year. Best we can do is making educated guesses.
Patterson “only” got 18.4 PPR points today, with 14 carries and 9 targets, putting him at a 20.3 point average after 5 weeks. At this point, he needs to be valued above Mike Davis. I would say at least 16, but his owners may differ. I personally wouldn’t trade him for anything less than Michael Carter or Tony Pollard now.
Basically, we would need 2 trade values for every player: a “sell-high value”, marking the threshold at which you should definitely consider trading a player away, if anybody is ready to pay that much. And a “buy-low” value, for which you should acquire a player if his current owner is ready to give him away for that.
Patterson would then probably be the player with the highest spread in the league. Sell-high 18 (early 2nd round value), buy-low 4 (mid 3rd round value).
Which also means that he’s not a player who’s likely to be traded. Current owners have no incentive to trade him away for scraps, whereas potential buyers may not want to overspend on a player whose future beyond this season is uncertain.
If I had Patterson, I would consider trading him for Carter or Pollard. If I had Carter or Pollard, I probably wouldn’t take the trade unless I am shooting for a championship this year. But that would put Patterson around 22, which is Chase Edmonds territory. I would absolutely trade Edmonds for Patterson.
