Duverney or Brown?

This is the second time I have looked over the waiver wire and seen two WR’s atop the available W/R/T flex position: Devin Duverney of Baltimore and Noah Brown of Dallas.

Duverney is clearly a boom or bust player, but when he booms…he looks real good! He’s had 3 td’s through 2 weeks, including a kickoff return for one. 6 targets for 6 catches is efficient, but not spectacular for 96 yards over 2 weeks…unless you count his 2 td’s back in week 1. It’s hard to feel good about a WR in Baltimore’s run-first offense, but Duverney will keep defenses honest.

On the other hand, there’s Noah Brown, the seemingly unspectacular third WR for Dallas. Week 1, he got 5 catches from 9 targets for 68 yards. But before you can say “Dak got hurt”, Brown puts in his most efficient week 2, with 5 catches for 5 targets and 91 yards plus a td.

Looking at these two, there is a strong ceiling versus floor debate. If you need ceiling, go with Duverney. If you need floor, go with Brown.

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I’m staying away from Noah Brown. Gallup looks like he is close to a return, and I’m not sure what Brown’s role will be then.

Brown is an intelligent and experienced player who knows how to get open. He also draws little attention from defenses, and that has a reason: he is slow. If he continues to score, he will certainly see more attention from opposing defenses, which will also not help his production.

Duvernay is indeed a boom-or-bust player every week. There is no huge target volume in Baltimore, and he is the clear #3 target behind Bateman and Andrews. That makes him TD dependent. In some weeks, the TDs will come, in others, they won’t. I don’t like such players, as we all know how this ends up: if you start him, he’s a bust. If you bench him, he scores big.

There are two players who are still available on many waiver wires, who I’d easily prefer over both Brown and Duvernay:

Greg Dortch of the Arizona Cardinals. Now, he also carries a question mark, as we don’t know if he can retain his role when Rondale Moore returns. But Dortch was so rock solid so far that I took my chances and added him in several leagues.

And my personal fantasy darling for many years now, whom I drafted at a time when everybody said he will never make the 53 man roster in New England; Jakobi Meyers.

Meyers is a high-floor low-ceiling guy who plays rock solid football ever since he joined the Pats as a UDFA. He is a former QB turned WR, which means he understands QB play and knows what he has to do to get the ball. He is spectacular in contested catches. And he gets a steady target volume. His upside is limited by the lack of red zone targets. But on FLEX, I love to have a player who will rarely score less than 10 PPR points.

No, not Meyers.

The man has seen fewer receiving TD’s than Tom Brady rushing.

Regardless, I’m not seeing Meyers on my waiver wires.

In terms of targets, Meyers shares the #16 spot in the NFL with Drake London. He’s getting 9.5 targets per game. He will usually turn that into at least 6 catches. With a modest 10 yards per catch. that alone will deliver 12 full PPR points.

Yes, the absence of TDs is notable and means his ceiling isn’t a lot higher. But show me one other player who will give you a double-digit floor as a FLEX option or BYE week replacement.

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It comes down to the question of ceiling or floor. If it is for a flex position, you want ceiling. Meyers floor isn’t good enough for a WR1 or 2.

That fully depends on my matchup. If I am behind in projections, yes, I need ceiling. If I’m ahead, or if it’s an even matchup, I prefer floor, especially if that floor happens to be high.

Of course, Jakobi isn’t a WR1, and probably not a WR2, either. But neither are Brown, Duvernay or Dortch. Baltimore is generating far too few targets to support a 3rd player. Duvernay saw 6 targets so far in 2 games combined. Jakobi saw 19 in the same time.

Noah Brown may be a fantasy WR2 right now, but that can change as early as this week. The same goes for Dortch, even though I see better chances for him retaining his status for at least another 2 weeks, and maybe even beyond.

Jakobi’s status should be safe, as long as he stays healthy.

True, but Duverney’s efficiency is pretty solid.

6/6, 16 yards per catch, 2 TDs (one every 3 catches) - that’s not solid, that’s sensational. So sensational that I would hold any bet he won’t stay that efficient.

His 3rd TD was a kick return, which isn’t scored for WRs in every league, as some will attribute those TDs to D/ST.

In those leagues, his owners got a taste what he will do for them in weeks when he doesn’t get a TD: 6.2 full PPR points.

If 3 targets per game is what we can expect for him (and to me, that sounds about right), then adding him to your roster feels a lot like chasing last week’s production. Duvernay’s base stats look a like O.J. Howard’s in week 1, and I hope nobody picked him up after that week.

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Don’t get me wrong. He reminds me of Terrence McGee in IDP, from about 20 years ago. That said, I won an IDP league with McGee, so I can’t talk too much.

Noah Brown will only be the #2 WR in Dallas until Gallup gets back. He was a short-term solution in the first couple of weeks, as Axe Elf predicted, but it’s kind of a why bother situation by now.

Duvernays are a dime a dozen–a good week and then three quiet weeks.

I wouldn’t bother picking up either one, myself.