Oh boy. Math really isn’t your strong side, is it?
Your argument would make some remote sort of sense if you could draft all starters for a position with 1 pick. Of course, that’s not how drafts work. In reality, you can only draft 1 player with each pick. And you have to make sure that you get the best possible team performance with the players you add in each round.
Let’s make a little experiment. A quick draft. 12 teams, 6 rounds. We need to draft 1 QB, 2 RB and 3 WRs in these 6 rounds.
Let’s also assume there is no strong positional preference among the other managers in this draft. So each round, each 4 players from each position come off the board.
We draft from a middle spot. In round 1, we can get the #3 guy from each position, in round 2 the #7 guy, in round 3 the #11 and so on.
The expected PPG scores for each player we have available are as follows (based on the 5-year average scores in an actual half-PPR league):
| Pos. Rk. | QB PPG | RB PPG | WR PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 27,6 | 20,5 | 18,1 |
| 7 | 25,1 | 17,2 | 15,5 |
| 11 | 22,9 | 14,7 | 14,6 |
| 15 | 20,7 | 13,6 | 13,5 |
| 19 | 19,7 | 12,8 | 13,2 |
| 23 | 18,5 | 12,2 | 12,6 |
The Elf prefers to take his QB late. He would tell you to draft RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-QB.
That would give him 20.5 + 17.2 + 14.6 + 13.5 + 13.2 + 18.5 = 97.4 PPG out of these 6 players.
Others may try a more balanced approach and go RB-WR-QB-RB-WR-WR. That nets them 98.1 PPG. A bit better, but still not a good approach.
Some may be tempted to take a QB first, because they score so many points. They might go QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR. That is actually better, and gives you 98.7 PPG.
A much more reasonable approach is going RB-QB-RB-WR-WR-WR. That earns you 99.4 PPG. A good approach, but there is a slightly better one:
RB-RB-QB-WR-WR-WR gives you the highest possible score of 99.8 PPG.
Conclusion: addressing the QB position first is a mistake, but addressing it in a later round is an even bigger one.
Of course, real drafts are more complex than this example. Some positions receive more pressure in the draft, others less. So we have to anticipate how many players from a certain position will come off the board until we are on the clock again.
Still, this mathematical example shows that it is a good idea not to wait too long with drafting a QB, even in single QB leagues.
Unless, of course, you draft on Planet Elf, where math, physics and a positive attitude towards others than yourself aren’t considered a valid tender.