I have a scenario where I may have both Joe Mixon & Jamar Chase available at for back to back picks at 10 & 11 of a 10 team snake draft. Should I draft both despite the dreaded WR & RB from the same team?
Dreaded? Having the RB1 and WR1 from the same NFL team tends to promote more consistent scoring from week to week, because RB and WR scoring tends to be negatively correlated among teammates–if the ground game is working, the WRs may not score as much; and vice-versa. So you won’t often get BIG games out of both of them, but you won’t often get TERRIBLE games out of both of them, either.
Whereas with the QB/WR stack, they tend to be positively correlated–if your WR is doing well, it’s probly because your QB is killing it. So you get BIG weeks and TERRIBLE weeks, usually depending on how your QB does that day.
If you can get away with Chase and Mixon at the turn, I’d say do it. You might not want to draft Burrow, though…
Unless Joe Burrow gets hurt, like he did 2 years ago. Mind you, I’m not saying he will, but these are the Cincinnati Bengals, where Murphy (of Murphy’s law) is the owner, GM, head coach, trainer, and team doctor. After every Super Bowl, the Bengals find a way to lose the following season. After the 1981 season when they lost the Super Bowl, they never again won more than 7 games under Forrest Gregg. After the 1988 season, when they lost the Super Bowl to the 49ers for the second time, they went 8-8 in 1989. Sam Wyche lasted until 1991, although they did win the AFC Central in 1990 with a 9-7 record.
Well, I did advise against drafting Burrow…
You advise against drafting ANY QB! If you could ban the position, you would.
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Nonsense; I advise drafting value QBs–top 10ish QBs you can get late.
Since QB6-QB20 are usually all within a couple of fantasy points per week of each other, it makes no sense to burn an early pick on a QB when you can get one just as good late in the draft, on the waiver wire, or just by streaming the best matchups each week in smaller leagues.
Last year QB6-QB20 in fantasy points per game averaged about 18.5 ppg, +/- 3 pts.
Your problem is you define an “early pick” as anything before round 10.
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And that is plain wrong. Over the last 5 years, the dropoff from #7 to #19 was steeper on QB than on any other position.
QB: -5.4
RB: -4.5
WR: -2.3
TE: -2.9
So +/- 3 points for QBs is actually correct. But that’s a lot more than on all other skill positions.
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Yet another stat missed by the Elf.
Mind on vacation, Mouth/fingers working overtime.
Ask the little Google guy for help.
I have a scenario where I may have both Joe Mixon & Jamar Chase available at for back to back picks at 10 & 11 of a 10 team snake draft. Should I draft both despite the dreaded WR & RB from the same team?
You tell us nothing of your team. Keeper, Dynasty, One & Done?
That said, I do not like and have always avoided two players from the same team and that has treated me well. I agree with all the facls and figures but go with my gut here. FWIW.
I have nothing against taking an RB and WR from the same team. My only disclaimer on that is it has to be a good team. For example, I wouldn’t want Saquon Barkley and Kadarius Toney, unless they are both sitting on my bench.
As for taking two Bengals, I just don’t feel good about having two Bengals on my roster. My gut says avoid that team. I might take Chase, but only because he’s an extremely talented WR who could still put up numbers even if Joe Burrow gets hurt.
This year’s wrap is intriguing as I have the 10 and 11 picks as well. I have seen Harris, Chase, Mixon, Diggs, Kelce, Kamara and Barkley all mentioned here.
And would not shock me to have a Henry or Cook, etc drop. Fun place to be.
The stats are clear. QB6-QB17 last year averaged about 18.5 ppg, plus or minus 3 points.
Calling it wrong doesn’t make it wrong.
Again, you’re forgetting that you need 2-3 stud RBs and 2-3 stud WRs, but only 1 average QB, so you should double/triple those dropoffs for RBs and WRs (depending on your starting lineup requirements) in comparison to the dropoffs for QBs.
Oh? Which one?
(Extra characters to meet the ridiculous post length requirement.)
Appreciate the update; let us know when you’re feeling better.
RB and WR on certain teams is fine, obviously the highest scoring teams, but I don’t love the idea of using both a 1st and 2nd rd pick to get there. It’s different for example if you draft Ekeler in the 1st rd and then Williams in the 5th.
There’s a LOT of good PPR talent there at the turn (Kamara, Barkley, Adams, Kelce, Swift, Diggs). Especially in a 10-team league you’re going to have a strong roster regardless so I’d eliminate the risk of using your first 2 picks on players from the same team.
Ignoring players with less than 7 games, we have following points-per-game stats:
QB6: Jalen Hurts, 21.4 PPG
QB19: Carson Wentz, 15.6 PPG
A 5.8 PPG range, so your statement is correct.
Shall we look at RB and WR?
RB6: Alvin Kamara, 18.1 PPG
RB19: David Montgomery, 14.0 PPG
Lo and behold, the gap is significantly smaller, at only 4.1 PPG.
WR6: Tyreek Hill, 17.4 PPG
WR19: Tyler Lockett, 15.1 PPG
Here, we even have only a 2.3 PPG gap.
Oh mathematics, you mythical beast!
Yes, let’s–and remember, you start TWO RBs and TWO/THREE WRs, but only ONE QB.
Doubling that difference to account for starting 2 RBs, you have an effective gap of 8.2 ppg.
Tripling that difference to account for starting 2 WRs and a Flex, you have an effective gap of 6.9.
I love how you differentiate there, even when you reject drafting QB’s early in superflex.