A draft exercise

Let’s do a simple draft exercise. Using the ECR (which is likely not indicative of any draft, but not too far removed), I am going to draft a team for a 10 team league in redraft, with PPR and superflex, using the ECR as the teams I am playing against. The roster will be a typical QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Superflex, and 5 bench spots. I will assume the number 6 pick in a snaking draft:

1.06: RB Najee Harris: Frankly, I consider Harris a potential 1.01 for people not sold on Jonathan Taylor. With a stronger armed QB in Pittsburgh (frankly, my dead grandmother has a stronger arm than Ben Roethlisberger at this point), that should stretch the field and give Harris even more room to be dangerous. At the 6 pick, he’s a steal.

2.05: WR Stefon Diggs: While Travis Kelce is tempting here, I am just not comfy with the Chiefs new offense minus Tyreek, not to mention Kelce isn’t getting any younger. While Diggs is no spring chicken, he is “da man” in Buffalo’s high-powered offense. At the very least, he is a high floor option, which allows me to take greater risks on other WR’s.

3.06: TE Kyle Pitts: Passing up Kelce for Pitts is the play here. Pitts is not only the TE1 in Atlanta, but it can be argued he is also the WR1. Sure, rookie Drake London is there, but as good as he was in college, how good will he be in the pros? Even if he turns into a great one, that just opens things up even more for Pitts.

4.05: QB Derek Carr: My gut says Carr has a career year with his receivers (Adams, Waller, and Renfrow). I normally don’t like taking QB’s this early, but I can’t resist the Raiders all-time passing leader in his best situation ever.

5.06: RB Breece Hall: Rookie RB’s are hit or miss, but Hall looked like a great one in college. While he may end up being just a 2 down back, those 2 downs should be good for him. Plus I love the Jets offense this year.

6.05: RB AJ Dillon: While it seems early to grab another RB, Dillon has too much potential to pass. Plus you can never have too many good RB’s.

7.06: WR Darnell Mooney: As second receivers go, Mooney is a good one. And who else is Justin Fields going to throw to? Mooney did pretty good last year, even with Allen Robinson still on the roster.

8.05: QB Jameis Winston: Locking up my superflex with Jameis here. He may be the most underrated QB going into this season. Potential top 5 QB.

9.06: WR Hunter Renfrow: Early hot take: Renfrow improves on last year’s numbers, thanks to having Davante Adams around.

10.05: RB Michael Carter: I took Breece Hall, so why not his handcuff? Carter was good last year, and even if he gets pushed into a 3rd down role, he could still have some flex value.

11.06: QB Davis Mills: This is superflex, and considering Winston is coming off an injury, it’s not too early to grab insurance. I was tempted by Rhamondre Stevenson and Chase Claypool here, but QB gets a little thin after this.

12.05: WR Garrett Wilson: Wilson is just too good to pass up here. He could easily end up being my starter before the end of the season.

13.06: TE Rob Gronkowski: I need a backup TE, and Gronk is a great longshot play. Will he sign with the Bucs? If he plays, then yes. If he doesn’t, I can drop him later and grab a lottery ticket off the waiver wires.

Overall, I love this team! I’d feel quite content going into the season with them. Feel free to leave your own impressions.

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Definitely a good team. A few thoughts:

1.06 - I’d probably have taken Mixon or Lamar Jackson, but Harris certainly isn’t a bad choice, either. CMC would have been a risky pick, and I would have passed on Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler as well.

2.05 - Not so sure about this one. Gabe Davis is on the rise, and while I don’t expect Diggs to vanish, I also don’t see him exceeding his 2021 production. Murray, Jefferson, Hurts or even Adams may have been the better choice here. I’d say Burrow, too, but I know you are concerned about his injury risk.

3.06 - No complaints here.

4.05 - I am high on Carr myself, but I don’t know if his ceiling is a lot higher than QB10. Trey Lance would have been the riskier choice, but offers a higher ceiling.

5.06 - Good call. Rookie RBs are often underrated in redraft leagues, and Hall is no exception here.

6.05 - You predict a career year for Carr, yet pass on Adams and Waller. That’s interesting. Who is going to catch all those passes you attributed to Carr? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Dillon is a solid choice, but would have been available with the 7.06 as well. I’d have selected Travis Etienne here. Not without risk, but with the potential of being a top 5 RB.

7.06 - Mooney is #71 on the ECR list, so you’d have to swap him with Dillon. I see the potential here, but would have gone for Hollywood Brown instead. With D-Hop missing a good chunk of the season, Brown could absolutely skyrocket.

8.05 - Winston will not be a top 5 QB. But drafting him in the 8th round of an SFLEX draft is still a rock solid choice.

9.06 - Not sold on that. I’d rather take a swing at Drake London here.

10.05 - Michael Carter shows at #125 in SFLEX ECR, so this is quite the reach.

11.06 - No complaints here, especially considering the alternatives in this tier.

12.05 - Wilson shows at #121, so he may have been off the board around here. But Chris Olave shows at #126 and would make a fine alternative, especially if Winston’s season will be as good as projected.

13.06 - Robert Tonyan would have been a good choice here, too.

++++++++++

So, let’s have some fun. I will draft in this league, too. I’ll allow myself the #5 position, but will not draft any of your players. We can then check at the end of the year whose team performed better.

1.05: Lamar Jackson, RB, BAL (10) - Nothing wrong with picking a QB first in SFLEX. Could have taken Mahomes here, but with the KC offense being totally revamped, I’ll rather rely on Houdini’s legs.

2.06: Javonte Williams, RB, DEN (26) - Gotta be honest here, I’m not too happy with this one. Javonte is as a great an RB as they come, but Melvin Gordon will keep cutting into his production. The other RBs in this tier don’t look too hot, either, so I won’t argue if anybody would prefer Mixon with the 1.05 and Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott with this 2.06.

3.05: Michael Pittman, WR, IND (45) - With the upgrade on QB, Pittman is going to have a great season.

4.06: Trey Lance, QB, SF (54) - Bit risky, but I am a Lance believer. He could easily finish a top 5 QB, which would make him a steal in the 4th round. Or he’ll be a bust. Then I’m screwed. :sweat_smile:

5.05: Josh Jacobs, RB, LV (61) - Jacobs will have the best season of his career, plain and simple.

6.06: Marquise Brown, WR, ARI (72) - See above. D-Hop misses a third of the season, so Hollywood will soar.

7.05: Travis Etienne, RB, JAX (75) - Another risk/reward pick. ETN could be top 5, or miss the top 40, or anything in between.

8.06: Dalton Schultz, TE, DAL (92) - I don’t see why Schultz wouldn’t have another top 5 TE season, so I’m happy to pick him here, rather than spending an early pick on Andrews, Kelce or Pitts.

9.05: Tony Pollard, RB, DAL (110) - Zeke is on his last legs, and Pollard will benefit from it.

10.06: Allen Lazard, WR, GB (112) - Somebody has to pick up all the targets Adams left vacant. Lazard has an excellent rapport with Rodgers. He could be a top 20 WR this season.

11.05: Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT (124) - The QB woes in Pittsburgh are unlikely to harm Freiermuth’s production. He’ll have another top 12 season.

12.06: Chris Olave, WR, NO (126) - I also expect Winston to play an excellent season, which could lead to an early breakout for Chris Olave.

13.05: Marcus Mariota, QB, ATL (154) - I’m not too hot on Mariota, but as my 3rd QB, he should do fine. At least, he provides some rushing upside. I just hope that he won’t be replaced by Desmond Ridder before my other 2 QBs had their bye weeks.

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To sum it up:

Ed’s team:
QB: D Carr, J Winston, D Mills
RB: N Harris, B Hall, AJ Dillon, M Carter
WR: S Diggs, D Mooney, H Renfrow, G Wilson
TE: K Pitts, R Gronkowski

Zak’s team:
QB: L Jackson, T Lance, M Mariota
RB: J Williams, J Jacobs, T Etienne, T Pollard
WR: M Pittman, M Brown, A Lazard, C Olave
TE: D Schultz, P Freiermuth

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One of these days, you and I have to get into a league together!

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I’m currently toying with the idea of joining another dynasty league. Would love to do another dynasty startup draft. My last one was 2018. That was the first time I joined a dynasty league, and looking back at that startup draft with what I know today… :see_no_evil:

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My turn on your team:

1.05: I’m not sold that we aren’t seeing the decline of Lamar Jackson’s running. It looks like the punishment is wearing him down, but I’m not seeing his passing ability pick up enough to carry him. This is a lot of draft capital on questionable health.

2.06: Too early in PPR superflex for an RBBC RB. Sure, Williams is awesome, but the Broncos won’t ride him if they don’t have to.

3.05: Good pick here. Pittman is a clear WR1 for Indy.

4.06: I wouldn’t touch Lance with a 10 foot pole. Someday, if he ever proves himself, I might draft him early. But “strong arm” doesn’t equate to passing prowess. Just look at noodle-armed Tom Brady last season? Still have to read defenses.

5.05: ONLY if Jacobs stays healthy. Personally, I worry that Gruden ran him into the ground. Last year, even Peyton Barber looked better.

6.06: Maybe. Brown either soars, or the Cards offense stalls. Considering this is the Cards, I lean towards the latter.

7.05: You’re right about the risk/reward here.

8.06: Going for TE’s later in the draft is a good strategy, and Schultz is solid.

9.05: I considered Pollard. I just worried that Elliott will take too many touches.

10.06: You may be right. Or Lazard will be nothing special. But high risk/reward is to be expected in the 10th round.

11.05: Another solid TE pick. I suspect you may be starting Freiermuth over Schultz, which makes this an even better pick.

12.06: I did consider Olave. If Wilson wasn’t there, I’d have grabbed Olave.

13.05: Mariota might be better than you expect, or he might be a game manager. I will say he impressed me in the only game he played as a Raider, against the Chargers, nearly beating them. With running skills and few mistakes passing, he is a QB to watch. He might make the Falcons forget Ridder.

Overall, you took a high risk/reward team.

Your best floors at each position:
QB: Jackson
RB: Williams
WR: Pittman
TE: Schultz

Your lowest floors:
QB: Lance
RB: Etienne
WR: Lazard
TE: Freiermuth

Your highest ceilings:
QB: Lance
RB: Etienne
WR: Pittman
TE: Freiermuth

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Let me know. I’ve been enjoying a new league in Sleeper. I wouldn’t be averse to another one.

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