You might regret it more in a couple of years if Hall balls out, but you’ll be happy this year. And I think getting rid of Stroud was a good move too. He missed his first two passes today badly, after a bad showing in PreWeek 1. On the plus side, he looked a lot better in their second drive today–but I’m just getting the “another Ohio State bust at QB” feeling there.
Even if he eventually develops, Daniel Jones will almost certainly be better for this and likely next year as well. I don’t know if Penny and Williams will equal Breece if he returns his potential, but they’re not bad pieces for this year anyway.
Getting a solid QB in a 16 team Superflex while divesting yourself of a potential anchor at QB is probably the main selling point of this trade.
Regarding Stroud, it is the chance you take with any rookie QB. Getting a solid veteran like Jones, one who could actually improve from already good stats (he was QB10 last season), is the steal in the deal for me. Stroud could develop into a QB better than Jones, or he could be another Ryan Leaf. The range of outcomes is pretty wide at this point.
To me, the value pieces in this deal were Hall and Jones. Everything else was static, with a lot of potential outcomes. But adding the draft pick upgrade ensures me for downside outcomes.
One aspect of this trade that has been unmentioned is the Dalvin Cook part. The Jets paid well for an RB like Cook, and the reason is obvious: Hall won’t be 100% at the start of the season, and maybe deep into the season. If Hall does play, he also runs the risk of injuring himself. On top of that, the presence of Cook completely negates Michael Carter’s value. Even now, Cook can do anything Carter can, only better.
Where I don’t get Mahomes, I get Jones; he’s certainly poised for a top 5 season–it will just depend on how much his rushing stats decline in relation to the anticipated increase in his passing stats. Hopefully it’s greater than a zero-sum exchange.
Not a terrible trade. If it is a good one depends on how early that 2024 1st will be.
Getting Jones for Stroud is an upgrade on QB. While I do expect Stroud to establish himself in the NFL, I do not see him becoming a fantasy darling. He’s lacking the rushing upside for it. Danny Dimes OTOH rushes a lot more than fantasy managers give him credit for, making him the cheapest QB1 alongside Geno Smith, with more long-term potential. Jones’ upside is top 8, while his floor it that of a high-end QB2. He’s SFLEX gold.
Losing Hall will hurt you. Maybe not this year, if Hall starts slow and Penny does well in Philly. But latest next year, you will miss Hall.
So for me, the question if this was a good trade is down to whether or not you can draft a suitable replacement for Hall with that 2024 1st.
I’m ok at RB: Rhamondre, Penny, Deon Jackson (if Taylor doesn’t report to the Colts, Deon is gold!), Zamir White (he’ll be worth more when Jacobs gets hurt this year), and Israel Abanikanda (I think the kid has potential).