Blockbuster trade!

This is from my 16 team PPR superflex dynasty league.

I traded away RB Breece Hall, QB CJ Stroud, RB Michael Carter and my 3rd round pick next year.

I got QB Daniel Jones, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Mike Williams and his 1st round pick next year.

I will leave it for your review first before I comment.

You might regret it more in a couple of years if Hall balls out, but you’ll be happy this year. And I think getting rid of Stroud was a good move too. He missed his first two passes today badly, after a bad showing in PreWeek 1. On the plus side, he looked a lot better in their second drive today–but I’m just getting the “another Ohio State bust at QB” feeling there.

Even if he eventually develops, Daniel Jones will almost certainly be better for this and likely next year as well. I don’t know if Penny and Williams will equal Breece if he returns his potential, but they’re not bad pieces for this year anyway.

Getting a solid QB in a 16 team Superflex while divesting yourself of a potential anchor at QB is probably the main selling point of this trade.

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Regarding Stroud, it is the chance you take with any rookie QB. Getting a solid veteran like Jones, one who could actually improve from already good stats (he was QB10 last season), is the steal in the deal for me. Stroud could develop into a QB better than Jones, or he could be another Ryan Leaf. The range of outcomes is pretty wide at this point.

To me, the value pieces in this deal were Hall and Jones. Everything else was static, with a lot of potential outcomes. But adding the draft pick upgrade ensures me for downside outcomes.

One aspect of this trade that has been unmentioned is the Dalvin Cook part. The Jets paid well for an RB like Cook, and the reason is obvious: Hall won’t be 100% at the start of the season, and maybe deep into the season. If Hall does play, he also runs the risk of injuring himself. On top of that, the presence of Cook completely negates Michael Carter’s value. Even now, Cook can do anything Carter can, only better.

And with poop for receivers.

Where I don’t get Mahomes, I get Jones; he’s certainly poised for a top 5 season–it will just depend on how much his rushing stats decline in relation to the anticipated increase in his passing stats. Hopefully it’s greater than a zero-sum exchange.

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I would expect to see more production opportunities as they become more efficient and hold onto the ball longer, with fewer punts.

If you believe your teams playing for this year, then it’s okay (for now), depending on the Eagles back field splits. But you may have given up to much of your near(er) term future if Stroud pans out.

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Therein lies the problem with rookie QB’s. You never know what you’re getting.

Not a terrible trade. If it is a good one depends on how early that 2024 1st will be.

Getting Jones for Stroud is an upgrade on QB. While I do expect Stroud to establish himself in the NFL, I do not see him becoming a fantasy darling. He’s lacking the rushing upside for it. Danny Dimes OTOH rushes a lot more than fantasy managers give him credit for, making him the cheapest QB1 alongside Geno Smith, with more long-term potential. Jones’ upside is top 8, while his floor it that of a high-end QB2. He’s SFLEX gold.

Losing Hall will hurt you. Maybe not this year, if Hall starts slow and Penny does well in Philly. But latest next year, you will miss Hall.

So for me, the question if this was a good trade is down to whether or not you can draft a suitable replacement for Hall with that 2024 1st.

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I’m ok at RB: Rhamondre, Penny, Deon Jackson (if Taylor doesn’t report to the Colts, Deon is gold!), Zamir White (he’ll be worth more when Jacobs gets hurt this year), and Israel Abanikanda (I think the kid has potential).

Probly more like bronze after Moss gets back from his broken arm.

But who are we kidding; we all know Taylor is suiting up Week 1.

(Parenthetically, he has already “reported.” He has been in camp, but not participating.)

Deon is looking better and better…

Why, did Moss tear his ACL while rehabbing his broken arm?

I don’t see Moss as a viable starter. The Bills would have kept him if he was.

They had Cook and needed a special teamer like Hines. Not saying he’ll be another Jonathan Taylor, but he’ll be in the mix enough that nobody will be a reliable fantasy starter if Taylor isn’t.

Moss is nobody I would ever start in fantasy. At least Deon gets reception points.

Would you start him if he was getting 65% of Taylor’s snaps in Indy?

And probably gaining 15 yards. No thanks! Moss couldn’t effectively carry Taylor’s workload.

Colts’ current RB depth chart:
Zack Moss
Evan Hull
Kenyan Drake
Deon Jackson

If JT will indeed leave, I’d expect Moss and Drake to handle most of the backfield duties, with Deon chipping in on passing downs.

If any of them will be fantasy-relevant is a completely different question. None of these players makes your team “good on RB”, though. Neither does Rashaad Penny, who isn’t even a roster lock.

All of these players (including Zamir White) make for fine bench stashes in deeper leagues, but none of them screams “fantasy starter”, even if their team’s RB1 should vanish.

Edit: you can add Joshua Kelley to that list.

Aside from JT, Deon is still the best player listed for the Colts. He’ll at least earn passing downs, although he isn’t a bad runner.