Blockbuster trade

I’m in a full point ppr keeper/dynasty league. I’m 9-0 and i have offer of giving Mahomes for J.Herbert and an early 1st for the 2022 draft. Which side wins?

That is a big one. How early are we talking about here? I know you can’t safely say that yet, but are you expecting this to be the 1.01-1.03, or rather the 1.03-1.06?

Despite his recent struggles, Mahomes remains the most valuable QB in dynasty leagues. But Herbert has proven that he is there to stay. Many expected him to regress this year, due to sophomore slump and a new coaching staff. He didn’t.

He’s #5 in my current dynasty QB rankings, behind Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson.

The gap between the 5 isn’t huge, and there is every chance Herbert will be able to close it even further. So getting an early 1st for that move is a fair price. Especially when you expect it to be a top 3 pick, and you could use a top RB prospect (who doesn’t?).

I’d be tempted to accept that trade. Who wins it is something we can answer only once we know which pick this will turn out to be, which player you can get for it, and if that player meets the expectations.

Ceiling top 3 pick floor top 6 pick.

To me, Mahomes and Herbert are neck and neck. Both have had their struggles lately, although Mahomes has struggled more. If you are giving up Mahomes for Herbert and a 1rst round pick, I’d jump on that. In average PPG, Herbert is at #4 this year (with 20.19, with Mahomes at #10 (with 18.34).

Mahomes has gone 5 straight games without breaking 20 points. Does that sound like a top 5 elite QB to you? Frankly, when I have seen him the last few weeks, defenses are taking away the deep plays from him, forcing him to play a patient game. Mahomes has no patience, and it shows.

On the other hand, Herbert just came off a rough two-game stretch with a monster 31.64 point performance against Philly. Dare I mention his rough performances were against Baltimore and New England? All is forgiven here.

I’d jump at that trade. It doesn’t matter where in the first round that pick ends up. I’d make the trade for a 2nd round pick at this point.

3 straight games. Let’s not make things worse than they are. And before that cold streak, he had 6 straight games with 23.7+ points and 2+ TDs.

The problem is that the Chiefs’ offense is too one-dimensional at the moment. Their weak defense puts them under a lot of pressure to score, and the absence of a legitimate run threat makes it rather easy for opposing defenses to figure them out. That leads to INTs instead of TDs.

Mahomes talent didn’t vanish overnight. But as long as his only notable offensive weapons are Hill and Kelce, he will continue to struggle. KC will probably be in the market for a new RB next year, and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if they made a move to get OBJ on board.

I understand the enthusiasm of a Raiders fan about the undisputed Chiefs’ struggles, but denying Mahomes the ‘elite’ label goes a step too far, as far as I am concerned.

In a redraft league, that trade would be a no-brainer. In a dynasty league, it is still one to consider, and I’d lean towards accepting it.

4 weeks ago, he got 19.98 points against Washington. If your league rounds up, then ok. If not, my point still stands.

I’ve thought he was overrated ever since the 49ers Super Bowl. If the 49ers hadn’t pulled the biggest choke job since the Falcons vs. Patriots Super Bowl (also a Kyle Shanahan special), people would have seen Mahomes for what he was.

Beating Mahomes is simple: Keep him under pressure with your front 4, and take away the deep ball. If he has to settle for short passes all day, he inevitably gets impatient and throws one up for grabs, or holds onto the ball too long and takes a sack.

CEH isn’t a bad running back. It’s just that Andy Reid has never been one to ride his RB’s like a bellcow, or even in an RBBC. He likes to pass. Adding an RB won’t solve KC’s problems. If anything, they need to improve their defense.

Historically, I would rate Mahomes in the neighborhood of Kurt Warner. A very talented QB, but one who can be schemed.

The elite QB’s this year?

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Josh Allen (I will allow him the mulligan for the JAX game)
  3. Lamar Jackson
  4. Justin Herbert
  5. Matthew Stafford (admittedly, some of his appearance here is due to being surrounded by an immensely talented offense, plus he gets a mulligan for the Titans game)

Contenders for elite status:

  1. Jalen Hurts: He’s still young, and he needs to learn to pass consistently, like Lamar Jackson.
  2. Dak Prescott: He needs to stay healthy.
  3. Kyler Murray: Health questions, and just needs to pass a smidge better. 7 picks in 8 games is not good.
  4. Patrick Mahomes: If he can learn to be patient and take what defenses give him, he could easily be elite again.
  5. Jameis Winston: Same problem as Mahomes, but he seemed to be learning it before his freak injury. He could be elite, but it will either take another year or two in New Orleans, or a relocation to a good offense during the off-season (Pittsburgh?).
  6. Joe Burrow: He HAS to cut down on the picks! 11 picks in 9 games is killing the Bengals.
  7. Derek Carr: He’s shown flashes of being something special, but he needs to get more consistent.

What scoring is that supposed to be based on? I have him at 28.95 on FleaFlicker and 22.98 on ESPN.

Let’s check his record:
2018: 12-4, 383/580 (66.0%), 5097 yds, 50 TD, 12 INT
2019: 10-3, 319/484 (65.9%), 4031 yds, 26 TD, 5 INT (missed 2.5 games)
2020: 14-1, 390/588 (66.3%), 4740 yds, 38 TD, 6 INT (missed 1 game)

If it is so easy to beat him, then why does hardly any NFL team manage to do so? Why did the Raiders get an average 35 points from the Mahomes-led Chiefs in their 6 meetings so far?

Do you really claim to have insight that all those NFL head coaches and defensive coordinators missed all those years? Come on, man!

It’s my Yahoo league.

Probably because most teams don’t have a decent front 4 to rush the passer. But considering 4 teams (only 9 games into the season) have managed to beat him this year, I’d say they are figuring it out.

Even in 2020, most teams, aside from the Raiders during the season, and the Bucs in post-season, played back on their heels against Mahomes. Now they don’t, and he’s struggling. I’ll let you explain WHY he’s struggling now.

Because their offense has become too one-dimensional. They’ve become a one-trick pony, and that’s easy to defend, even with a QB as talented as Mahomes under center.

His impatience and infatuation with big plays adds up to that problem, I won’t deny that. But he’s shown that before, and it didn’t stop the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are running into a tricky situation. They clearly need to improve their defense, but they will also need more offensive weapons.

CEH still has to prove that he can lead that backfield. And on the RB position, if you don’t perform right out of the gate, you’ll usually never perform. QBs, WRs and TEs mature. RBs just age.

And on the receiver side, he’s got Hill, and a clearly ageing Kelce. Hardman is lacking big play ability (and, I suspect, work ethic), Gordon is toast (quel surprise), and Robinson and Pringle aren’t enough of a threat to generate room for others to operate in.

They need an RB, they need a talented WR with big play ability, they need a new TE and they need to improve their defense. Lots of things to fix, they’ll better nail the next 2 drafts.

Mahomes is an elite QB, but to be able to carry a mediocre team, 3 seasons of experience isn’t enough. I’m still sure he’ll bounce back.

Interesting point from the “5 Burning Questions For Week 10” article:

Opposing defenses are beginning to utilize the two-high shell against Josh Allen’s aerial attack, and the results have been effective. The idea is to keep two safeties deep at all times, play zone defense, dare the offense to throw short (thus giving up on explosive plays), and tackle. The Chiefs are struggling against similar concepts these days.

Indeed, the Bills are in a pretty similar situation. A previously dominant passing attack without a serious rushing threat, that suddenly struggles and gets shut out by the desolate Jaguars.

Does that make Josh Allen overrated? Of course not. Even though he has even better offensive weapons than Mahomes, and the Bills defense is strong.

The Bills were doing better when Dawson Knox was still healthy. They never utilized the TE much, but this year, he was the safety valve for Allen, whenever opposing defenses started shutting his abundance of deep threats down.

In one aspect, Allen is undisputably better than Mahomes: patience. Mahomes tries to force the ball downfield, even when the targets aren’t there. That results in INTs instead of TDs. Allen seems to be more comfortable with check-down passes, which results in the Bills racking up a lot less yards than I had them projected for.

Yet still, as soon as an offense becomes too one-dimensional, it becomes easier even for mediocre defenses to shut them down.

Looks like many DCs did their homework this offseason. Now it’s up to the playcallers (including the QBs) to figure out how to get things moving again.

You just explained why Mahomes isn’t elite. He hasn’t made the necessary adjustments to his game.

Josh Allen had one bad week. Prior to that, he had 5 straight weeks above 21 points. THAT is elite performance. If he has another bad week, we can talk about him maybe having a problem. Mahomes has had 3 straight weeks of 15 or less. THAT is a problem.

Remember when Tom Brady had nothing around him on the Patriots, and still he performed? This year, when the Ravens RB and WR corps were decimated by injuries, Lamar Jackson still put up QB1 numbers? These are elite QB’s. Until Mahomes matures, he won’t be in that class.

So what are we talking about here? Fantasy status or NFL status?
Because from a fantasy POV, Brady was sometimes pretty far away from being an elite option. I didn’t browse through all his stats, but his current fantasy production may be the best he ever delivered in his long career. In his NE time, despite all his success, he often was no more than a middling QB2 in fantasy.

From a fantasy POV, Mahomes wasn’t elite over the last 3 games. That’s a given, the numbers speak for themselves. On an NFL level, he still won 2 of those 3 games, though.

If this was a redraft discussion, I would be ready to accept that there may be better options than Mahomes for the rest of the season. But we’re talking dynasty here. We’re talking about a team that was among the best of the league for several straight seasons now. We’re talking about a QB who is capable of doing things no other QB has ever shown before.

To rank him down over 3 sub-par games in a dynasty league is a massive overreaction - the kind I would try to avoid in dynasty leagues at all costs. A hot streak of 3 games doesn’t make a player a superstar, and a cold streak of 3 games doesn’t mean you should consider trading them away asap.

On the long run, talent wins. Especially in combination with a well-managed franchise. It’s a good time to buy Mahomes.

I would trade away Lamar Jackson to acquire Mahomes without even thinking twice. Lamar puts up better fantasy numbers because of his rushing volume. But that’s not a game he can play forever. Much as I love seeing him play, but he’s a big injury waiting to happen, unless they will shorten his leash. Which they clearly had planned this season already, but that plan got derailed by the ridiculous injury streak in their backfield.

Lamar is an RB with an excellent arm. But a sad fact about bellcow RBs is: they don’t last long. And his arm alone won’t keep Lamar on an elite level, even though he has improved his passing skills significantly. But he’s not a generational talent in that respect.

I would agree on this point, although it would concern me in dynasty. You’re relying on him to “see the light”, and suddenly become patient with his game view. If he doesn’t, this could be painful.

I still remember Daunte Culpepper, circa 2004. One of the best seasons by a QB ever. And he got hurt the following season, and was never the same QB again, and was out of football after 2009.

I just don’t get the “great QB” vibe from Mahomes. I see the talent, yes. But not the head. He reminds me more of Colin Kaepernick than Tom Brady. Kaepernick had all the talent, but none of the head. Sure, he put up decent stats, even as he was losing games. What happens if Mahomes starts losing games?

I’ve seen better. Lamar Jackson comes to mind immediately. For passing skills, give me Brady or Manning or Fouts. For combined running/passing, Steve Young and Michael Vick (at the end of his career) were better. There is nothing Mahomes can do that hasn’t been done before.

I would normally agree, but I honestly wondered why it took the NFL this long to see Mahomes achilles heel. Now that they have, it is up to him to wake up and smell the toast burning. This is a character check for him. If he doesn’t turn it around by the end of this season, this could go south real fast.

This is a tough call. Lamar is the kind of guy who can win your league THIS year, and maybe next year too. Even in dynasty, that’s not something to give up on, unless your team is out of the playoffs. And I doubt many of Lamar’s teams are out of the playoffs. Lamar is the kind of QB whose career burns short, but bright. He wins leagues, even if it isn’t over a decade. With Lamar, you will know when the ride is over. But like Daunte Culpepper before him, you won’t see it coming.

On the other hand, you’re gambling on Mahomes getting his head straight before losses start happening. But if he does, what happens? He becomes Brady, stat-wise. Mahomes won’t be what he was, because defenses are taking that away from him.

I don’t think they hadn’t it figured out before. But until a few weeks ago, the Chiefs had a very potent ground game as well. Then CEH went down, and they realized they didn’t have anybody else. Why else would they start a wildcard like Derrick Gore?

With a solid run game, you can shut Mahomes’ deep passes down, if you have 2 potent safeties (not all teams do). But if you do, then the Chiefs will run you into the ground.

Not anymore, though, and that’s the Chiefs’ biggest problem. As you said, right now, all it takes is to put pressure on Mahomes and cover the deep threats, and bad things will start happening (or good things, from the defense’s point of view).

A HOF-level QB will overcome even those situations, but Mahomes isn’t there yet. Other great QBs weren’t in their 4th year, either. If Mahomes can take that next step remains to be seen. But as a short-term measure, it’s up to roster management and playcalling to fix this. I think we will see it happen still this season. If not, next season. If they still struggle next year, then yeah, I’m ready to hit that ‘panic’ button.

That’s a risk for all passing QBs. An injury to their throwing shoulder can destroy their entire mechanics. You can also see that among baseball pitchers.

This can be nasty, as it doesn’t even have to be a “took a big hit and had to be carted off the field” type injury. It can be a lingering one, like microscopic bone particles coming loose in the glenoid cavity.

I was afraid that Matt Ryan suffered from this, when he suddenly started looking off 2 years ago for no apparent reason. Sold him back then, and regret it until today.

Such injuries happen, and can derail a QB’s career. It’s impossible to foresee them, though, so I wouldn’t bet on them.

True. Maybe Lamar will last even longer. One good thing about him: he’s a very smart runner. He’s great at avoiding big hits and tackles.

But that’s another general dilemma in fantasy football: when do you sell your RB assets? Do it too early, and your opponents will laugh in your face while your former RB superstar runs you into the ground and out of the playoffs in the matchup with your former trade partner.

Do it too late, and you won’t get anything for them anymore.

Unfortunately, you only know the right time after disaster already struck.

This offseason, a buddy of mine asked me for advice. He was in the extremely comfortable situation of having both Henry and CMC on his roster. Unsurprisingly, he was top 3 in his league over the last 3 years, with 1 championship.

He wanted my opinion if he should sell either of them, and I strongly encouraged him to do so. He didn’t listen to me. Now he’s sitting at 3-6, last in his division, his biggest assets injured, no young talent on the roster. And nobody is willing to pay the price he was hoping for, so he now intends to keep them and hope that they will both bounce back next year.

Had both stayed healthy, he’d have been a fool to sell them. Now he’s one for not having done it. Hindsight is always 20/20. Finding the right time to sell your assets is probably the single biggest challenge in dynasty football.

It was obvious last season. The Raiders exposed it in their first victory over the Chiefs, and then the Bucs used is again in the Super Bowl. I have no explanation for the rest of the season.

Reid can call the plays, but if Mahomes ignores the short options for the home run plays, there’s nothing Reid can do, other than bench Mahomes. If that happens, it’s too late for fantasy owners.

This is almost a side issue to our overall discussion, but I watched Ryan last week, and he looked better than I’ve seen him in awhile. He may have turned a corner. He is one to watch. He won’t be great for the next 10 years, but he could give you a few seasons, maybe. Just keep an eye here.

It is easier to sell RB assets than QB or WR or TE assets. There are few RB’s who last as long and play as well as Barry Sanders any more. To use an astronomical metaphor, QB’s are like the sun, burning bright for a long time; WR’s and TE’s are like planets reflecting the light from the sun; whereas RB’s are like bright asteroids burning up in the atmosphere for a short while, shining brightly until they crash down to Earth.

As I have stated in previous posts, I traded away Derrick Henry at the beginning of this year for Michael Carter in my dynasty league. I felt a little silly when Henry got off to a roaring start, but I feel quite justified now, as Carter has started to come on strong. No, Carter is no Henry, but I feel like I can build a team around Carter for the upcoming years. Henry is destined for Adrian Peterson-land, shades of his former self, unable to carry the big load like he used to do.

There is a lesson here: Don’t treat RB’s the same as other positions. They are transitory assets.

We spend a lot of time drafting RB’s first, especially in dynasty leagues. Instead, we should be drafting QB’s, WR’s, and TE’s first. Those are the positions that carry us through the years. RB’s are transitory. They are the punch bowl at the party of this year: Wonderful today, gone tomorrow.

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As I said, I really regret having sold him during the 2019 season. Last year, I still thought I had made the right call. This year, I see that I didn’t.

True that. You may (or may not) have gotten more for Henry, but I don’t blame you at all for trading him away for Carter. Drafted him myself in this year’s rookie draft, and feel a lot more comfortable on RB now.

I fully intend to trade away Austin Ekeler this offseason. My plan is to trade him plus my own late (I hope) 1st round pick away for one of the top 3 picks and then use that on a top rookie RB.

True. There are usually 1-3 good RB prospects in each rookie draft, and I don’t blame anybody who uses an early pick on them. But I don’t understand why so many owners pass on really good WR/TE prospects and aim for 2nd or 3rd tier RBs instead.

Edit: now I completely forgot the main point in my reply :sweat_smile:
ESPN published an article on Mahomes today, that mostly agrees with our combined analysis. Though I’d say the author’s also confident that Mahomes will be able to bounce back.

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I wouldn’t read the author is confident that Mahomes can fix the issues, only that there are fixes out there. This is really up to Reid and Mahomes to fix.

The article mentions how to use the running game to fix the issues, and it would help, but KC has never been reliant on the running game, which means a culture shift for their offense. For Reid, running the ball is only an excuse to get the passing game going. He has never really been a running coach. Defenses know that tendency in him after all these years.

As for Mahomes, until he can learn to live with underneath plays, he will NEVER achieve what he was.

While this is all very interesting, the real issue is whether Herbert + whoever is drafted in round 1 would be more productive than Mahomes + whoever you play instead of that 1st rounder.

If it were me I’d bet on my ability to draft well and take it…but to be fully transparent, I don’t value individual QBs that highly over other similar ones and won a league last year streaming Mitch Trubisky against the #1 seed because I streamed all year, so take my advice for whatever you think it’s worth… Especially since you have to live with this decision past this year.


Wow, someone other than Ed and me is still reading here? :sweat_smile:

You are absolutely right, Bob, and as I wrote above, I’d be tempted to accept the trade myself. Even if Mahomes soon returns to old strength, Herbert isn’t much of a downgrade to him, and a good 1st round pick more than makes up for it.

I wouldn’t even rule out that Herbert will be better than Mahomes over the next 3 years, though I wouldn’t bet on it.

I think it depends on the league setup. In superflex leagues, ignoring QB’s can hurt you.

You and I will agree to disagree on this point. Even IF Mahomes returns to form, Herbert is talented enough to surpass him. Herbert is only in his second season and is already topping Mahomes.