In a ppr league that has 2 rbs 2 wr 2 flex. I have the second pick and am between CMC and Kupp. I understand the ceiling for CMC is insane but the floor can fall out from under him easily with his injury history whereas with Kupp i feel the floor is much safer and the fact my league has an extra flex also makes me think kupp wouldn’t be a bad pick at 2 possibly but would love to hear someone else’s thoughts.
I agree with your assessment. CMC is a boom-or-bust candidate. If he stays healthy (and I tend to be optimistic he will be), he alone can make your team a contender. If he misses more than half the season again, you can start planning for the 2023 season already.
If you want to go after a safer elite RB, consider Najee Harris. Like JT and CMC, he is in an absolute workhorse role, and he’s my favorite for overall RB#1, even with CMC healthy.
My own view on players in general, and RB’s very specifically, is when they start showing an injury history, meaning more than one serious injury in consecutive years, it never gets “better”. With RB’s in mind, an injury history is exacerbated by heavy usage, usually over 20 touches per game. This sound like CMC to anyone?
CMC had 403 touches in 2019 in a 16 game season, 25.2 touches per game. In an injury-shortened 2020, CMC had 76 touches in 3 games, 25.3 touches per game. In an injury-shortened 2021 season, he had 136 touches in 7 games, 19.4 touches per game.
Here’s an interesting analysis of CMC’s injury history: Christian McCaffrey - Injury History
For CMC’s sake, we can hope they cut back on his touches to keep him healthy. If that is the case, is he still worth a 2nd pick in a draft? If I’m taking a young stud back with a limited touch count, I’ll grab Javonte Williams.
But if you’re going for a young stud back whose upside is pure bellcow and lots of touches, @ZakHH is right: Go for Najee Harris. He is my first pick in any draft, and the fact he is dropping late into the first round makes him a steal. Najee is a 6’1", 232 pound beast, who also happens to be a prolific pass-catcher. Equal parts Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler, Najee is every defensive coordinator’s worst nightmare. You don’t want him running over your linebackers and DB’s.
By the way, Najee had 22.4 touches per game last year (307 rushes and 74 catches). And THAT was as a rookie! (Note those 74 catches, which is an extra 74 points in PPR)
In addition, the Steelers will not be hindered by the Ghost of Ben Roethlisberger this season, and will have a QB, either Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, who can throw farther than 5 yards downfield. This should open things up for Najee, giving him more space to run between tackles, or even space to catch the ball outside the tackles.
Take Najee, rest easy.