hey guys. I have the third overall pick this year in my league. I am certain bijan or cmc are not going 1 -2. I first had my heart set on cmc with out a doubt. But as my draft inches closer each day here- I feel that not only CMC’s injury history, the 49ers as a whole are rough on RB’s with the schemes. I feel Bijan has a much higher ceiling for 2023. What are your thoughts?
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It’s not exactly a risk-tolerance question, as both options carry significant risk–it’s just what kind of risk do you want to accept?
With CMC you accept the fact that he might only play 7 games.
With Bijan you accept the fact that rookies don’t always perform at a high level right away.
I’ll take the adventure of the unknown, myself, as Bijan has the best situation for a RB in the NFL (he’s Derrick Henry with catching ability, playing for Derrick Henry’s old coach behind a top-5 offensive line), and he appears to be the sort of generational talent that can come in and be a top 5 RB in their first season, a la Saquon Barkley and Najee Harris in recent years.
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I like the first half Axe until you started comparing Bijan to a once a decade power-back like Henry. Robinson’s comp would be more comparable to Ladainian Tomlinson. The main difference is Robinson is a couple inches taller and IMO has a spin move like Emmitt Smith. They even played college ball in the same state, were drafted just 3 picks apart and their 40 times are identical.
Henry is built more like a short TE. He outweighs Robinson by around 35 pounds and is a couple inches taller. Even the other famous power-backs that preceded Henry like Adrian Peterson, then Ricky Williams don’t get anywhere near his size. Only ‘The Bus’ - Jerome Bettis - is realistically in the Henry comp. territory and will probably play as long toO. 
My comparison wasn’t a physical one; more a comparison to the kind of workhorse RB that Henry has been, but Bijan also has catching ability.
Well Henry has solid catching ability to, they just haven’t used him a lot there in the past because they didn’t have to so much - until this last year. Henry’s career is among the best when they do use him. He has an 9.8 ypc and hauls in 76.5 % of them. 75-80% catch rate is among the league elite. 9.8 ypc is among league average for TE’s. Where RB’s who’s ypc is around 8.0 is considered elite.
Henry is indeed a workhorse RB, but the bigger question is if you believe that Robinson will ever be a 25+ touch guy p/g. These days you can be a ‘bell cow’ RB without having to touch the ball 25+ a game. I personally don’t think he will despite their scheming and run rate frequency, in part because of a crowded backfield. 20 touches a game, sure, but not 25+ avg. (in some years) like Henry.
Well, that was only two backs last year–Henry and Jacobs–so yeah, I’d call 20 carries a game a “workhorse” load.
Touches (carries + receptions).
Ok, FOUR backs, then.
Still pretty workhorse territory.