Erickson published a video with 8 players that he expects to disappoint in 2022. And I am disappointed by those projections - with only 1 exception.
Last week, I would probably have agreed to all of these players, as my gut feeling told me not to trust any of them. But that’s why projections are better than gut feelings. I finally finished my 2022 rankings over the weekend, and now I disagree on almost all of Erickson’s takes.
Mahomes will regress, but not by a lot. QB#6 in my book. Yes, that’s worse than his QB#3 ADP, and if you draft him with top 3 expectations, you may be disappointed a little. Buth this is still within the margin of error. The fact that he does not have a clear #1 target anymore could even help his overall production.
Zeke will regress further, but will remain in his ADP range of RB#17. If you hope he repeats his 2021 performance, you will be disappointed, but not if you draft him at his current ADP.
Mark Andrews? The overall TE#1, hands down. Who else is going to catch passes in Baltimore? Devin Duvernay? Granted, the Ravens won’t pass the ball a ton. But Lamar Jackson is a competent passer, and Andrews’ only serious competition for targets is Rashod Bateman. I don’t see why Andrews would regress in 2022.
Tyreek Hill - I have both him and Waddle as WR1s, even without the Dolphins passing volume increasing except for total passing yards. Hill is my WR#5, Waddle my WR#8. Again, it’s the competition situation that is working in their favor. Gesicki and Cedrick Wilson will see a few targets, as will at least one of the RBs. But 60% of the passing volume will be distributed between Hill and Waddle, making them a very intriguing duo.
Deebo will regress, especially at rushing. But his WR#10 ADP is exactly where I have him. Again, you will only be disappointed if you expect 2022 to repeat, but not if you draft him at his current ADP.
Javonte’s ADP is RB#14, and I have him even 2 spots higher. The pendulum will swing in his direction. Not by much, but it doesn’t require much to push him into low-end RB1 territory. The only risk are the TDs. If Gordon again gets more goal line work, then Javonte might indeed end up around his current ADP.
DK Metcalf: I ranked the Seahawks passing offense dead last in 2022. I have Lockett exactly at his WR#35 ADP. Metcalf is still my WR#13, 5 spots above his ADP. No disappointment here.
So the only player I agree with is Diontae. His ADP is WR#13, I have him at WR#22. It pains me, as I have dynasty shares in him, but he is bound for regression. Najee Harris is in for a monster year, though, and could finish the season as the overall RB#1.
Still, I throw the challenge flag on Erickson here: 7 out of his 8 players will finish within 3 spots of their ADP. Most of them even on the higher side.