I got into a big debate with a few dynasty managers while watching the game last night. I said that Robinson, Johnston with maybe 1 or 2 others were the only top pick rookies and had my sanity questioned.
I explained that in dynasty you have a rookie draft, You pick and own the player as long as you want.
In our league, you have to clear the pick from a top keeper and then next year pay your top pick to keep that player. Big difference,
For example, Robinson is the Chosen One this year. Henry is an aging great RB who was a 2nd round pick. If you had to wager, let’s say $1,000, on who would score more fantasy points next year who would you pick?
They agreed, bought me beers and want to play in my league next year. They see it as really challenging and want to play in one.
Who would you take between Henry and Robinson in 2023 now before landing spots, etc.
Robinson, and it’s not even close.
Henry has scored 272 (avg 18) so far, 3rd in fantasy with Ekeler 1st, Jacobs 2nd and McCaffrey 4th all within 10 points of each other.
Are you thinking Robinson will score a lot more than this or that Henry will score a lot less in 2023?
Robinson has the potential to score such numbers right out of the gate. RBs don’t need time to develop. They are either good right out of the gate, or never. Only thing that could stop him is if the team that drafts him deploys him in an RBBC.
Henry will be 29 next year. When was the last time an RB ran for 1,500+ yards at that age?
Biggest mistake you can make in fantasy football is chasing yesteryear’s production.
The same was said about this year on Henry, Ekeler and with injury McCaffrey.
They were done but lead the league in scoring.
When was the last time a 28 year old RB ran for 1500?
I got caught up in this on Brady for years. Ya never know.
I do not disagree with your thinking but have to see the other side as well. You are in the finals in large part due to Henry who others passed on, myself twice, until the second because of age.
While we discuss Robinson, what of all the other top rookie picks? Are any of them worth more than the proven NFL vets in the first round.
Let’s get Ed and Cook involved in this. Cook has not been as good as in past years but still damn good. Will a top 5 pick not named Robinson be better in 2023 only?
Then we get into a young Harris with Zak.
The 2023 draft has a great RB class but is weak at WR. I can see 4 VG RBs and Johnston as the best top 5
Will they be worth it? I have no idea.
Henry is 28 this season. Empirically speaking, that is the age cliff for RBs. You may get one more good season out of an RB at that age - if he stays healthy.
I drafted him because in the middle of the second round, he was a good value pick. But if both enter the 2023 season healthy, I’d bet that Henry comes off the board before Bijan in 9 out of 10 leagues, if not 19/20. And that is not good value anymore.
That Henry helped me this year means absolutely zero for next year. And yes, there are players who are able to play past their empirical prime. But for every player that turns out to be a fantasy asset even at a high age, there are 20 who turn out to be busts.
Does Brady mean we should draft 40+ year old QBs? No. Does Cordarrelle Patterson mean we should draft 30+ year old RBs, hoping that they will enjoy a surprise breakout at a time where many others already hung up their cleats? No.
Every year, there are a few unicorns in the league. And it feels great to have them on your roster. But chasing unicorns in the draft is a safe way to lose in fantasy football.
Young players are far from being a success guarantee. Even top talents can fail in the NFL. Or they get injured early. Still, the chances to win with a young roster are always higher than with an ageing roster. Especially since up and coming talents are always cheaper to draft than big names from the past.
I put together the youngest team I have ever seen and the chances of winning were not higher. They are very inconsistent vs vets. No way do I regret it and am set up great for this year.
However if 1st round vets are dropped I have to give very serious consideration on adding them vs a rookie not named Robinson.
The unicorns happen to be the top scorers in fantasy.