Projecting team rankings in different passing and rushing categories marks the first step in my seasonal projections. My 2021 projections were quite okay, but I’m sure I can do better. So let’s take a look at my 2022 projections, starting with passing yards.
How do we expect NFL teams to perform in terms of passing yards in 2022?
2021 was a below-average year in terms of passing yards, compared to the median of the last 5 years. So overall, I would expect the total number of passing yards to be a bit higher in 2022.
The biggest winners in my projections are:
Rank: 21 (+6, 2021: 27)
3741 passing yards (+421, 2021: 3320)
The arrival of Deshaun Watson should have a pretty big impact on Cleveland’s passing offense. I still see them in the bottom half of the league, but still improved compared to 2021.
New York Jets
Rank: 18 (+2, 2021: 20)
3920 passing yards (+379, 2021: 3541)
Zach Wilson showed some progress towards the end of the 2021 league. He got new weapons, which should help him (and the Jets) taking another step forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did even better, but there’s also some potential for disappointment, so I’ll keep the expectations positive, but tempered.
Rank: 20 (+2, 2021: 22)
3797 passing yards (+361, 2021: 3436)
Same story for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. Year 1 after Urban Meyer should see the Jags improving, though I’d also not expect any miracles here.
Rank: 16 (+1, 2021: 17)
3993 passing yards (+342, 2021: 3651)
I’m not convinced the Dolphins will play a lot better than in 2021. But the addition of Tyreek Hill should allow them to stretch the field more. This should lead to more passing yards in 2022.
The biggest losers in my book are:
Rank: 32 (-2, 2021: 30)
2941 passing yards (-266, 2021: 3207)
I may rank the Bears a little higher during the preseason. Justin Fields started 2021 with an abysmal passing performance, but got better towards the end of the season. That would imply a better overall performance in 2022. However, the Bears gave Fields no new weapons, which does not suggest a lot of confidence in their sophomore QB. Honestly, I couldn’t say right now which passing offense I’d expect to do worse than the Bears in 2022.
Kansas City Chiefs
Rank: 6 (-2, 2021: 4)
4653 passing yards (-139, 2021: 4791)
Just like I expect the arrival of Tyreek Hill in Miami to increase the Dolphins’ team ADOT (and thus, the overall passing yards), I’d expect his departure from Kansas City to have the same effect in the other direction. The Chiefs will still remain one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, but may lose a few yards compared to 2021.
New York Giants
Rank: 31 (+/- 0, 2021: 31)
3076 passing yards (-120, 2021: 3196)
The Giants did not pick up Daniel Jones’ 5th year option, and are trying to sell Kadarius Toney. This does not instill a lot of confidence in the 2022 Giants passing game.
My preliminary overall 2022 passing yard ranking for all NFL teams:
|Team||2022 Rk (p)||2021 Rk||Change|