2021 was the first season where I did some serious rankings myself. Didn’t just sort some lists or assigned random values to players, but went the extra mile and started ranking teams by passing and rushing production, to determine how much volume each team has to distribute among their players.
So, with the regular season in the books, it’s time to review how I did.
TL;DR: not too bad, overall, but with a couple of heavy misses.
Here is a list of my biggest bloopers. Could I have known better before week 1, or did the season just not go as expected for these teams?
Below lists show where I ranked each team in the respective category. Passing Yards = 1 means I expected that team to rack up the most passing yards in the league, 32 represents the least yards among all 32 NFL teams.
Passing Yards
| Team | Projected Rank | Actual Rank | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 29 | 13 | 16 |
| NYJ | 31 | 20 | 11 |
| NE | 24 | 14 | 10 |
| CAR | 19 | 29 | -10 |
| NO | 22 | 32 | -10 |
| SEA | 7 | 23 | -16 |
The Ravens certainly did go through the air a lot more than in previous years. I had bumped them a little, but that was not nearly enough. Their woes on RB certainly played a role here.
As for the Jets, I was one of Zach Wilson’s biggest critics, and in the beginning of the season, he seemed to prove me right. But I can’t deny that he did show a notable development towards the end of the season. The games with Mike White under center also bumped the team production quite a bit. Overall, the Jets did better than I had anticipated.
Same story about the Patriots: I never thought Mac Jones was terrible, but I had not thought he would be so good in his rookie year already. His stat line looks very solid, and so does the Pats’ team production. Didn’t give them enough credit.
As for Carolina, I had hopes that Sam Darnold could show he’s actually a good QB. He didn’t. Then he was injured, which hurt the team production even more. Maybe I had them ranked a little too high, but I don’t think we could expect their season to be that terrible.
Same for New Orleans, where the slip in passing production can be attributed to Jameis Winston’s injury. Can’t project these kind of injuries, so I’m cool with my miss.
But what about Seattle? On paper, they had a great receiving corps, whereas their backfield looked shaky. Russell Wilson had repeatedly voiced his intention to rely more on the pass, and it looked like the team would unleash him more than in recent years. Okay, ranking them 7th in terms of passing yards may have been too optimistic. But 23rd? That’s their worst since 2018. Did I just miss the writing on the wall, or was the Seahawks season just a bad surprise?
For the rest of the league, I did okay. Projected 23 teams within 5 ranks of their actual result, which means my volume predictions were pretty much on par.
Rushing stats comparison will follow in the next post.