Bad timing to post this during the ongoing draft, I agree. But as I was working my magic Excel spreadsheets anyway to add the new arrivals, I took the opportunity to finalize the 2022 team stats and analyze how I did in my team projections (which are the basis for my player rankings).
First, a few general findings on the 2022 season. Analyzing the stats was a bit tricky due to the cancelled BUF-CIN game. In order not to distort the team rankings, I added the 16-game average in every category (yards, TDs etc.) for both teams, so that we have a level playing field.
Passing-wise, it was a weak year. 33.4 pass attempts per team per game, an average 64.0% completion rate, 218.7 passing years per team per game, 10.2 yards per completion and 1.4 passing TDs per team per game all marked 5-year lows.
Rushing looked better. 27.2 rush attempts and 121.6 rushing yards per team per game are a 5 year best.
As for my team projections, I once again managed to project 24 of 32 teams within 5% of their actual production. That’s pretty solid, as a 5% difference in team production hardly impacts individual player projections.
But of course, I still managed to miss a few teams quite spectacularly. In detail:
Passing
Ranked way too high:
- L.A. Rams: 1.356 passing yards and 20 passing TDs less than projected. Ouch! And I already had them down for some regression compared to their stellar 2021 season.
- Atlanta Falcons: 1.186 passing yards less than projected. Their passing game was almost non-existent. I had them way too low in the rushing department, though (see below).
- Dallas Cowboys: 1,177 passing yards and 11 passing TDs less than projected. Quite a shocker, as they were pretty solid in 2021, and everything pointed at the trend going up. Didn’t happen. The 2022 Cowboys were a disappointment yet again.
Ranked way too low:
- Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith was certainly one of the surprises this past season, and he sure surprised me. 128 pass attempts and 1,137 yards above my projection. There is a reason Geno was the #6 fantasy QB last year, and I will gladly admit that this was about the last thing I would have expected.
- Detroit Lions: I will admit, I’m not a fan of either Dan Campbell or Jared Goff. While I was pretty accurate on the number of pass attempts, Goff turned them into 617 yards and 8 TDs above my projection.
Rushing
Ranked way too high:
- Indianapolis Colts: not even so much in terms of yards (492 yards below my projection), but the missing 13 rushing TDs impacted my projections pretty badly.
- New England Patriots: same here. The missing 406 yards are still somewhat okay, considering it was my 2nd worst team projection. But they stayed even 16 TDs below my projection. The 2022 Patriots were pretty disappointing.
Ranked way too low:
- Atlanta Falcons: I will admit, I did not believe in Tyler Allgeier and the Falcons run game. And they proved me wrong. 1,354 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs above my projection is a pretty hefty slap in my face. Overall, I was within the 5% margin in terms of total team production, but I was spectacularly wrong in the pass-rush-ratio.
- Chicago Bears: 969 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs above my projection, and there was one reason for it: Justin Fields. That came at a price, though: the Bears’ passing game set a new level of terrible (more on that below).
- New York Giants: 791 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs above my projection. That was not just owed to the fact that Saquon was finally healthy again, but also to the fact that Daniel Jones is still a very underrated fantasy QB, who has more rushing upside than most would give him credit for.
Finally, I would like to take a quick look at two teams that were pretty terrible in 2022:
- Chicago Bears: In 2021, they were among the 3 worst teams in terms of passing. 3,207 yards were just a tad above the Giants (3,196) and the Saints (3,186). In 2022, they managed to get even worse. A lot worse, actually. 2,219 passing yards are an abysmal number. The worst team performance in the last 5 years were the meager 2,681 the 2018 Cardinals would have put up if that had been a 17 game season already.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the Bears were terrible in passing, the Bucs in rushing the ball. Lowest number of rush attempts (386), lowest number of rushing yards (1,308), fewest yards per attempt (3.4) and fewest rushing TDs (5) - they rank dead last in every rushing category. The Bucs rushing game was virtually non-existent. This really gives me second thoughts about Rachaad White, whom I was pretty high on for 2023.