Trey Lance scouting

General
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I found this video of 49ers QB Trey Lance against the Seahawks last season: Every Trey Lance play vs. Seahawks | NFL 2021 Highlights - YouTube

There are some seriously great plays, and some serious rookie mistakes. Overall, Lance looked a little like Jalen Hurts, but not as p0lished. Great athleticism, but not a great QB. The same could have been said about Steve Young when he entered the NFL.

The problem I have is trying to predict whether the light bulb will turn on for Lance. Right now, he isn’t ready. Could he be ready by the start of next season, or shortly into it? Sure. But just because he was great at NDSU doesn’t assure he will be a great NFL QB, or even when he will be a great NFL QB. It could take him years before he gets it, or he could be ready now.

Lance is a 50/50 gamble at this point. Huge payoff if you’re right, but a slightly less-then-Jalen Hurts downside if you’re wrong, which isn’t terrible. I think I would take a shot on that upside. Just remember, this doesn’t put Lance into the Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes rarified air territory. This year, if he breaks top 12, call that a positive sign. Lance might be a better gamble in dynasty than redraft.

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He isn’t polished yet, but he appears to be a much better passer than Jalen Hurts. He also remains calmer when the pocket collapses.

He’s still unproven, and his mechanics need refining. But the talent is there. His rushing upside will make him an immediate top 10 candidate. Top 5, if he can improve his passing game, which may need another year, though.

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This is why I make the Hurts comparison. Being able to scramble without a significant passing upside is good for fantasy, but leaves your starting position vulnerable in the real NFL. Lamar Jackson can throw well enough, although he will never put up Tom Brady passing numbers. But Jackson still does well enough to maintain his starting position. On the other hand, Hurts is still being questioned as the Eagles QB. Whether Lance can break through the Hurts/Jackson barrier remains to be seen.