I put this in Dynasty, as this kind of information is more relevant in that format at this time of the year.
Let’s take a quick look at the QB situation for all 32 teams, and which way they could go in 2023.
This one is easy: Josh Allen is signed through 2028, with the earliest out being after the 2025 season. Nothing to see here, moving on.
It still doesn’t seem they are 100% convinced of Tua Tagovailoa. Plus, the multiple concussions he picked up this year are a major concern. I expect Tua to remain their QB, but they may also sign the best backup QB available for the 2023 season.
New England Patriots
Will it be Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe in 2023? Only time will tell, but Jones has zero job guarantee right now.
New York Jets
This one is intriguing. Zach Wilson has to be toast. But right now, the Jets have no other QB signed beyond this season. They basically have 3 options: re-sign Mike White and let him start, sign a high-profile free agent, or trade up from their mid-round 2023 1st and chase another top rookie QB.
Did you remember that Lamar Jackson is a free agent after this season? The Ravens had offered him $250m for 5 years prior to the season, and he declined. Will they really offer him more after yet another injury-plagued season? Will they try to franchise-tag him? Or will they indeed move on, re-sign Tyler Huntley (RFA) and draft a mid-range QB to develop? There’s some drama in the air here.
Joe Burrow is 100% safe, signed through 2024, and will get a long-term contract latest after the 2023 season.
The Browns are all-in on Deshaun Watson and have no option to end his contract prematurely. I don’t expect them to keep Jacoby Brissett around, as that would cost them quite a bit.
Kenny Pickett will get the full year to prove himself. Trubisky is also signed through 2023, though the Steelers could save $8m against the cap by cutting him loose.
Davis Mills is toast. The Texans will spend their early 2023 1st (likely the 1.01) on a high-profile rookie QB.
The Colts will hopefully finally have learned that playing QB musical chairs won’t get them anywhere and spend their early 2023 1st (likely a top 5 one) on a high-profile rookie QB.
Trevor Lawrence is still not quite playing on the level people expected him to, but certainly showed great progress in 2022. He’s safe.
They will probably give Malik Willis a chance. Tannehill is signed through 2023, but the Titans can save $18m against the cap by moving on from him, which they will.
“We believe we can fix Russell Wilson”, their GM said today. I have my doubts, but they hardly have any other chance than trying. They will probably invest in a QB development project in round 3, though.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is signed through… forever. Next.
Las Vegas Raiders
Carr is signed through 2025, but the Raiders could save a lot of money by moving on from him. I don’t see them doing that, though. Their draft position (around 10) won’t be good enough for a high-profile rookie QB, and trading up or signing a high-profile free agent would cost them dearly. Carr may be safe for another year, albeit not 100% safe. And the Raiders may draft a development project.
UPDATE (12/29): The Raiders benched Carr, and it now looks likely that they will indeed move on from him. They will probably sign a high-profile free agent this offseason, and draft a development project in the second round or later.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is safe, but may want a new contract sooner rather than later. He’s currently signed through 2023, with a 5th year option for 2024.
Prescott is safe, despite his concerning injury history. I can see him demanding a contract extension, though, as the Cowboys could move on from him after the 2023 season.
New York Giants
Now, here is an interesting situation. The Giants rejected the 5th year option for Daniel Jones, so he will be a free agent after the season. And they will probably want to use their franchise tag on Saquon Barkley. Tyrod Taylor is signed through 2023, but they certainly don’t want to start him. Their draft position isn’t good enough for a top rookie QB. And their cap situation is below league average, so they can’t go on a spending spree, either. I’d expect them to try and re-sign Daniel Jones, but this is definitely a situation to watch. Don’t be shocked if Daniel Jones ends up in Carolina.
Jalen Hurts finally broke out and will be safe for the foreseeable future. Gardner Minshew will be a free agent and probably explore his chances to find a starting job somewhere else.
It will cost the Commanders $27m to keep Wentz, and nothing to cut him. That should be an easy decision. Taylor Heinicke will be a free agent, but I do expect the Commanders to bring him back. If he will be the starter, or if they will give Sam Howell a chance, or even bring in another free agent, remains to be seen. I don’t see them drafting a rookie QB, though.
Justin Fields broke out big time this year. They will bolster the o-line and give him a new weapon or two, but I cannot see them doing anything on QB.
Keeping Jared Goff would cost them $30m, cutting him $10m. Will they spend those $20m on him? Probably yes. I could also see Goff agreeing to a restructured contract. The Lions may want to draft a development project, though. In 2024, they could even save $25m by cutting Goff loose.
Green Bay Packers
Will Aaron Rodgers come back for yet another season? Will the Packers move on to Jordan Love, who’s entering the final year of his rookie contract already (with the Packers holding a 5th year option, though). Or will the 2023 Packers present the biggest QB surprise of the league to us? This Cheesehead would love to know. Alas, he doesn’t. Gut says, Rodgers will come back. It’s a weak gut feeling, though.
The Vikings cannot cut Cousins. And why would they want to? Cousins’ contract expires after 2023, though, so the king of strategic contract extensions may want to push for yet another one. There is a certain chance for drama here, as Cousins is in an excellent position to negotiate.
They will probably give Desmond Ridder a chance. Marcus Mariota will be gone, as the Falcons save $12m against the cap by cutting him. The question is who they will bring in as a veteran. They will have some cap space in 2023, and how much of it they will spend on the QB position will tell us how much they believe in Ridder.
What a mess. Sam Darnold will be a UFA, P.J. Walker an RFA. And they still have Matt Corral, who spent his rookie year red-shirted. They have a top 10 draft spot, and could trade up a few spots to get a top rookie QB. They have the second-most cap space for 2023 at this point. Who knows what David Tepper’s real-life fantasy football plans for 2023 are. I will not make a prediction here. Time will tell.
New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston was one of the biggest busts of the season. He’s signed through 2023, and while the Saints won’t save a lot by cutting him, I still don’t see why they would want to keep him. Or will they? Andy Dalton will be a UFA. They don’t have a 2023 1st. They are dead last in terms of cap space. It’s not difficult to understand why Sean Payton abandoned ship last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He may still be the GOAT, but Tom Brady is an ageless wonder no longer. He won’t return next year, but still cost the Bucs $35m in dead cap. The only QB they have is Kyle Trask, who makes for a speculative roster stash this offseason, as it’s difficult to see who else the Bucs want to pull out of the top hat.
Note how all 4 NFC South teams project to struggle mightily on the QB position in the foreseeable future.
Looks like it was a mistake to give Kyler Murray the big contract extension. But now they are married to him, for better or worse. Probably worse, but he’s still safe.
Los Angeles Rams
I expect Matt Stafford to retire. Baker Mayfield is playing for a new contract right now, as he’ll be a UFA and the Rams have nobody else. The Rams don’t have a lot of cap space, and no 1st for next year. Rumor has it that Sean McVay will pull a Sean Payton and abandon ship after this season. Could we blame him?
San Francisco 49ers
This one will be interesting. Draft capital means little to Kyle Shanahan, so this could be an open competition between Trey Lance and Brock Purdy. Jimmy Garoppolo will be gone, though. Unless… this is the Niners. You never know with the Niners.
It looks like the Seahawks found their QB for the future in Geno Smith. Alas, his contract runs out, so this is still a team to watch. The Seahawks hold the Broncos’ 2023 1st, which will be a very early one. I wouldn’t be shocked if they spent it on a high-profile rookie QB. So Geno owners should keep in mind that, good as he was in 2022, he doesn’t have a guaranteed starter job in 2023.
That was it. Hope you know what to do now. (If you do, let me know )