|1|Houston Texans
|2|Carolina Panthers
|3|Chicago Bears
|4|Las Vegas Raiders
|5|Seattle Seahawks
(via DEN)
|6|Detoit Lions
(via LAR)|
|7|Houston Texans
(via CLV)|
|8|Pittsburgh Steelers
|9|Jacksonville Jaguars
|10|Philadelphia Eagles
(via NO)|
|11|Green Bay Packers
|12|Arizona Cardinals
|13|Detroit Lions
|14|Indianapolis Colts
|15|Atlanta Falcons|5
|16|Los Angeles Chargers|5
|17|Washington Commanders
|18|New York Jets
|19|Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|20|Denver Broncos
(via SF)
|21|Seattle Seahawks
(via DEN)|
|22|New England Patriots
|23|Cincinnati Bengals
|24|Buffalo Bills
|25|Baltimore Ravens
|26|Tennessee Titans
|27|Dallas Cowboys
|28|New York Giants
|29|Miami Dolphins
|30|Minnesota Vikings|
|31|Kansas City Chiefs
|32|Philadelphia Eagles
Above is the NFL draft as of today and it is of interest to all fantasy managers.
In the top 10, have to think Houston, Carolina, Seattle and Detroit go QB.
Imagine if Philly went with RB Robinson. I could see that happening.
Thoughts?
If the Chiefs don’t draft Deuce Vaughn, I’m going to cry.
Yay! Make the Elfie cry!
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I see several teams in the top 16 that could be interested in Bijan:
Houston
Chicago
Las Vegas (if they don’t give Jacobs a new contract)
Philly
Green Bay
Arizona
Atlanta
L.A. Chargers
Carolina are a good fit, too, but I indeed think they will go QB.
I’ve seen a few people who think Gibbs will be the better pro. I see them as close and the team who ends up with them, as well as all the top rookies, will make a big difference.
The top four WRs are are really special. Five probable 1st round QBs and a few top TEs to top it off. WOW
Where do you slot these QBs in Dynasty? Keeper? Redraft?
Where do the TEs fit in?
Gibbs projects to have similar fantasy value, at least in PPR formats. Bijan is more landing spot proof.
Both should be the 1.01 and 1.02 in all fantasy formats next year. They won’t be, outside of dynasty leagues, as managers constantly under-value rookie RBs.
At QB, we have 5 outstanding talents entering the NFL, in Stroud, Young, Levis, Hooker and Hall. But it’s hard to rank them without knowing their landing spots. If one of them lands e.g. in Green Bay, but Rodgers decides to come back for one last season, then that QB will have little redraft value.
Even with those that find a landing spots that gives them an immediate starter role (like Carolina), I’d be a tad more careful with rookie QBs in redraft formats. While I’d never shy away from a top rookie RB, even good rookie QBs can struggle in their first season.
On the WR side, 3 players stand out: JSN, Johnston and Addison. JSN is pure talent, but it’s Johnston who really intrigues me. When Ja’Marr Chase came into the league, people said he’s too fast for corners and too big for safeties. Johnston checks the same boxes, with the added bonus that he’s too big even for Corners. He’s 6’4″ and will probably enter the NFL with around 215-220 lbs. Yet still, he’s swift and agile.
All WRs are landing spot dependent, so again, I won’t rank them. WRs can also need a year or two before they break out, even though there is a clear trend for top rookies to start producing almost immediately.
TE still is the position where players usually need 2 years to establish themselves. The only recent exception is Pat Freiermuth, who was solid right out of the gate, and just kept getting better. Even Kyle Pitts had a strong rookie season, but is struggling in his sophomore year, also thanks to poor QB play. He could be a steal in next year’s redraft formats, provided the Falcons invest in a QB.
The 2023 class offers 2 freaks of nature: Michael “Myers” Mayer and Darnell Washington. Both profile to be valuable stashes for dynasty and keeper formats, provided they find a good landing spot.
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Here is an intriguing question. Where do these rookies rank vs NFL players?
Would Robinson be higher than the real Barkley? etc.
Robinson = Saquon. Bellcow every-down back.
Gibbs > Kamara. Excellent pass catcher.
JSN = Chris Olave. Well rounded sharp route runner.
Addison… need to see more tape from him.
Johnston = Julio Jones. Extremely physical receiver.
Stroud < Josh Allen. Not an elite passer, but an excellent physical QB.
Young = Kyler Murray. Excellent arm, but lacks physicality.
Levis = Justin Herbert. Physical QB, breaks tackles. Strong arm, needs refinement.
Hooker > Daniel Jones. Strong arm, good legs. Needs a good o-line. Will be 25 at draft.
Hall < Patrick Mahomes. Excellent passer. Good vision. Mobile, but not a runner.
Mayer = Mark Andrews. Physical pass catcher with excellent hands.
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I would add WR Boutte from LSU for a Fab Four pass catchers to go with the two great RBs. A top six pick should get you an impact player.
I really like Mayer from ND and believe he will make his mark in the NFL in his rookie year.
I will get back to you on a more detailed view.
Zak, ignore the trade
As a general rule, I don’t do college rankings until after the combine. Say what you will about the combine, it is a great equalizer between the small school kids and the big college programs, letting you view their college tape a little more objectively. Beating up on schools like Coastal Carolina or Liberty College doesn’t prove much, unless the kid has combine numbers that match well with guys from Alabama.
Ed, I believe the NFL scouting system with today’s tech has caught up with that. They are everywhere and anywhere football is played.
That said, most top players don’t even go electing private workouts. Those are the guys we’re talking about and the combine to them is meaningless. JMV
I think the combine is overrated. Over the last 10-15 years, with the general availability of data and stats increasing all the time, the NFL teams appear to follow the same trend as us fantasy owners: looking for the perfect stat formula that gives you a near-guarantee for success.
As a result, players are drafted early because they check all the boxes. And then it turns out that they are not NFL material. While others, who slipped through the cracks, flourish.
Of course, this has happened before. I’m not even saying it got worse. But it certainly hasn’t gotten better, even though more and more technical metrics become available all the time.
Sorry guys, but I like the combine. It isn’t perfect, but it does give guys from smaller schools a chance to shine. Guys like Malik Willis and Christian Watson might not even get drafted if not for the combine.
Yeah, since no NFL scouts watch college football.
Yeah, since no NFL scouts watch college football.
You are a PITA but have to give the Devil his due here as I did LOL at that reply.
How much time do NFL scouts spend on Liberty College? I would venture close to “zip”. Unless a college scout got a tip from a friend of a friend, I doubt they would waste time. Malik Willis would have flown under the radar for most teams, if not for the combine.
On the other hand, for every Malik, there is also a James Robinson (from Illinois State), who underperformed at the combine and went undrafted, only going to the Jaguars as a UDFA. Certainly, the combine has its plusses and minuses. Reviewing his old combine results, you can see the qualities that made him a good pro in the pre-draft analysis, but you also see his limitations on display from the combine numbers too:
As you can see, a good combine showing at least gives them some attention to be drafted, and then for people like us to pick them in fantasy rookie drafts. Did you take Robinson in any of your fantasy rookie drafts? Of course not, nor would you. For every Robinson, there are dozens of no-name walk-ons who don’t make it out of training camp, or make it to a taxi squad where they languish for a few years until they retire or get cut.
I can tell you it’s exactly zip, since there hasn’t been a Liberty College since 1985.
Malik Willis was the major reason for Liberty University going 9-1 in 2020, with victories over Virginia Tech and Syracuse. He was a dark horse Heisman candidate and capped off the year with a bowl win. He wasn’t exactly flying under the radar to anyone who was remotely aware of college football, but you’re suggesting that the NFL might have missed him if not for the combine?
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You want to bring up the LendingTree Bowl? Lots of scouts there, I’m sure…
Sarcasm off.