12 team full-PPR dynasty league, single QB
T Lance, J Winston, D Jones
T Etienne, N Hines, R Jones, JD McKissic, K Gainwell, S Michel
J Chase, M Pittman, J Waddle, J Meyers, V Jefferson, KJ Osborn
D Schultz, P Freiermuth
I obviously have a problem on RB. And I have no 1st this year, entering the draft only at 2.02.
Got this offer now:
Trading away: T Lance, R Jones, J Chase
Trading for: L Jackson, A Gibson, AJ Brown
And now I am tempted. I hate the thought of giving up Lance and Chase. And I’m not particularly high on any of the 3 players I’m trading for.
But every trade analyzer I know tells me I’m getting the better deal here. And my roster would obviously be more rounded after the trade, that would fill a roster hole I can probably not fill in the upcoming draft.
What do you think?
You do know Washington took Brian Robinson in the draft, likely to take some touches away from Gibson? I’d rather take a shot at Ronald Jones this season.
Also, Jackson is not getting any younger, so he isn’t as much of a steal as you might think. I think I’d rather take a gamble on Lance, while you also have Winston to cover for you if Lance fails.
First, I wouldn’t take this trade.
Second, here are the RB’s that will likely be available when you pick at 2.02: Dameon Pierce, Isaiah Spiller, Tyler Allgeier, and Zamir White. If you pick at 3.02, here are some more RB’s likely available:
Brian Robinson, Tyrion Davis-Price, Hassan Haskins, and Pierre Strong.
Because this draft is so strong on WR’s, a lot of rookie RB’s are being ignored in fantasy drafts, even when they got drafted into good situations. With everyone else concentrating on WR’s, just take 2 RB’s, and you should be fine, since you only really need one of them to hit.
Remember: Just because you may be getting a good deal does NOT mean it’s the right deal for you!
This is a good example for how trade calculators and value charts can be misleading at times. I ran this trade through 3 different tools, and always came out way ahead.
Then I checked my own projections and saw that I am significantly lower on Gibson and Brown than most experts. I have Gibson at RB#32 and Brown as WR#26.
There’s no use making player projections if I don’t follow my own advice then. I turned the offer down. Maybe the hole at RB will extend my team rebuild by another year. But I do have a 1st next year.
If I accepted the trade, I may do a little better this year. But it still wouldn’t make me a contender. And it would reduce my chances to reach for the title next year.
Thanks for the feedback!
Honestly, I like the prospects of the RB’s in this rookie class. Guys like Allgeier and Robinson got drafted into good situations where they could contribute this year easily, and possibly even take over the RB1 role on their teams. Zamir White could take over by next year if the Raiders move on from Josh Jacobs, so this year is his audition.
The way RB evaluation has changed in the NFL has devalued them to no better than 2nd round picks, which means even good teams can grab one, which further means great backs are no longer doomed to get stuck in Detroit for their career.
Indeed, my hope is to get Dameon Pierce with the 2.02 and either TDP or Brian Robinson with the 2.09. The only problem is that this league is highly competitive, so other owners are good at indentifying potential value, too. Wish me luck.
By the way, there is a lesson to be learned regarding this trade offer:
FantasyPros Dynasty Trade Value Chart: 141 to 104 in my favor
FantasyPros Trade Analyzer: +1.9% roster improvement in my favor
DLF Trade Analyzer: 1434.3 to 1165.1 in my favor
Percentage of humans who said “hell no!” when I asked if I should make that trade: 100%