Start/Sit Advice

Fantasy Pros advised me to bench Gabe Davis and start Drake London. :angry:


It was an obvious prank; can’t believe you fell for it!

Don’t mind Axel. Despite his disguise as an elf, he’s actually a troll.

I might have given you the same advise. Projections are based on volume. The more targets a player gets, the higher are his chances to rack up fantasy points.

London saw 7 targets, playing only 3 quarters. Davis had 6, playing the full game.

And Davis is not a traditional red zone target, so you cannot really hope for him to score many TDs. Crazy as it may sound, but yesterday’s game proved that. His 2 TDs were not scored out of the red zone, but from 62 and an insane 98 yards away.

Without those 2 plays, Davis would have scored a whooping 1.6 half-PPR points - same as the week before (1.8). You cannot rely on him scoring those long TDs every game, so that 1.6 tells you where his floor is: well below 5 fantasy points per game. Despite his monster score, he remains a shaky start, and a good sell-high candidate.

And I say that as an owner, who has him in 2 leagues. And had really struggled with the decision to start him. In one league, because I had no alternatives. In the other, because I don’t trust Romeo Doubs’ volume yet.

Don’t feel bad. You will always have guys on the bench who have a freakishly good game every now and then. When in doubt, I’d always start guys with a steady volume over them, though.

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Based on the insight posted above, I went back and did a study of all the fantasy scoring in 2021, and it turns out ZakHH is right–when you take away the yards and TDs, fantasy players hardly score any points at all!

So yeah, definitely discount TDs and yardage when determining which players to start.



Fantasy Pros advised me to bench Gabe Davis and start Drake London. :angry:

Amy, So sorry that call did not work out for you. You need to understand that the NFL, spending countless multi millions of dollars on scouts, coaches and research is still wrong almost half the time.

I can only speak for myself. I consider giving another advice serious and it is based on a ton of knowledge and research but is sometimes wrong.

That said, I am right much more often than not. FWIW