I’m in a 10-team superflex draft. I understand how this format puts a premium on QBs, with most mock drafts taking QBs with about half of the first round picks. Makes sense, as QBs score the most points and also have high upside.
However, my own research shows that there is not much of a point difference between the top 8-10 QBs, while there is a big point difference between the top 10 RBs. For example, there was only a 4 point differential between the average PPG of the number one QB and number nine QB in my league last year. I went back the prior two years and this seemed consistent, with the exception of an outlier in Lamar Jackson in 2019. RBs, on the other hand, have a 7-8 point difference between the number 1 and number 9 average PPG.
When I pick #3 in the first round, I will probably be able to take the number 1 QB, Josh Allen. Or, I could take a top RB (I’m guessing JT and CMC will be gone, which is too bad because I think there’s a drop after that). Wouldn’t I be better taking the best RB first, and whoever is the top QB left when I pick in the second round?
I appreciate the response! Yes, it is a redraft league, but I have pick #3 in the first round. It is full PPR.
Your thoughts make a lot of sense. I keep seeing QBs so high in all the superflex rankings. I sort of get it, but there are so many good quarterbacks that produce at roughly the same level, that it seems better to take an elite RB early.
JT is the undisputed #1 for me. #2 and #3 are a little trickier. Henry and CMC if you are ready to take some risk. Mixon and Najee if you want to play it safer.
Also, don’t chase low-tier QBs in the second round. If the top QBs are off the board between your first and second pick, don’t hesitate to take another RB, or one of the top WRs instead.
Carr, Lawrence and Winston are excellent mid-round picks. You won’t have the best QB room in the league, but the same can happen if you chase players like Brady, Dak or Rodgers in the 2nd or 3rd round. They are solid QBs, but no difference makers.
Also look out for Trey Lance, Travis Etienne or Breece Hall, who can all be league winners and should be available in rounds 5, 6 and 7.
The only thing I’d add to what @ZakHH has said so far, for people with dynasty concerns, is that QB’s carry far more value, and you can draft them earlier and trade them away for more later. In redraft leagues, it’s a little tougher, mainly for the reasons @superflex just stated.
Another difference between redraft and dynasty: The konami code QB’s like Lamar Jackson are far more valuable in redraft. Say what you will about pocket passers, but they last a good long time, so they are dynasty gold, but redraft is more about “what can you do for me this year?” I’d place a little more value on guys like Jalen Hurts in redraft. I would say Josh Allen too, but he will undoubtedly go in the first 5 picks, maybe the first 2.